US trade deficit increases to $36.4b

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

WASHINGTON, United States - THE US trade deficit jumped to the highest level in 10 months as an improving economy pushed up demand for imports. However, exports rose as well, boosted by a weaker dollar, supporting the view that American manufacturers will be helped by a rebounding global economy.

The Commerce Department reported yesterday that the trade deficit jumped 9.7 per cent to US$36.4 billion in November, a bigger imbalance than the US$34.5-billion deficit economists had forecast.

Exports rose 0.9 per cent, the seventh consecutive gain, as demand was up for American-made autos, farm products and industrial machinery. Imports, however, rose a much faster 2.6 per cent, led by a 7.3 per cent rise in petroleum imports.

The politically sensitive deficit with China narrowed by 10.8 per cent in November to US$20.2 billion as US exports to China hit an all-time high. Through November, the deficit with China is still the largest the United States incurs with any country, but it is down 15.9 per cent from the same period in 2008.

American manufacturers contend China is unfairly manipulating the value of its currency to gain trade advantages, a point President Barack Obama raised with Chinese leaders during his November visit to that country.

Through the first 11 months of 2009, the overall US trade deficit in 2009 was running at an annual rate of US$371.59 billion, down by nearly half from last year's imbalance of US$695.94 billion. That improvement reflected a deep recession in the United States which cut sharply into consumer demand for foreign products.

But as the US economy has begun to mount a recovery from the worst downturn since the Great Depression, imports have started to rise. Economists expect that development will continue in 2010 and they are predicting a higher trade deficit as a result.

However, they also contend that the fortunes of American manufacturers will be lifted by a continued rise in demand for US exports as America's major overseas markets mount a recovery as well. The fall in the dollar against most major currencies since the US currency hit a 2009 high last March is also expected to boost export sales.

Economists are looking for strong gains in exports to help manufacturers and the overall economy in 2010.

For November, the 0.9 per cent rise in exports pushed them to US$138.24 billion, the highest level for exports in a year.

Shipments of farm products were up US$1.28 billion led by a big gain in sales of soybeans. Exports of capital products including semiconductors, industrial machinery and computers rose by US$360 million while sales of US-made autos and auto parts rose by US$714 million.

The 2.6 per cent rise in imports of goods and services pushed them to US$174.64 billion, the highest level since December 2008. The increase was led by a 7.3 per cent increase in petroleum imports which rose to US$24.43 billion. The volume of crude oil imports fell to the lowest level since February 1999 but the price rose to an average of US$72.54 per barrel, the highest level since October 2008.

Imports of computers, telecommunications equipment and industrial machinery were all up but imports of autos and auto parts fell by US$54 million.

The expectation is that while imports will be rising in coming months, the gains in exports will continue as well, reflecting a rebounding global economy and the weaker dollar.

The global rebound is being led by China and other Asian nations. Heavy equipment maker Caterpillar Inc is predicting that its sales will rise in 2010, reflecting in part greater demand from China and other Asian markets.

For November, the US deficit with Canada dropped 32.1 per cent to US$1.4 billion while the imbalance with Mexico rose by 12.8 per cent to US$5.1 billion. The deficit with the European Union was up 30.5 per cent to US$6.4 billion and the deficit with Japan rose by 22.8 per cent to US$5.4 billion.

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US trade deficit increases to $36.4b