'It is a shame that the people of Jamaica have no one to lead them. 'Four years ago, the JLP used allegations of corruption to wrest the country from the PNP. Fast-forward to today and the PNP is trying to use the same strategy (allegations of corruption) to try to unseat the JLP.

'Basically what we have for political leadership in this country are scoundrels who are basically securing their children's future from the public purse while the rest of us suffer. I did a little sociology in school and I know that only a revolution can save this country. Somebody has to stand up to these two sets of scoundrels. I am a public servant so I cannot be quoted. Something is brewing and you will hear about it in time.'

The person who recently sent me the e-mail quoted above mirrors much of the thinking of a significant percentage of the electorate. Basically it is apathy mixed with more than a dose of cynicism. They have seen it before — cycle after cycle of fancy promises, then elections, then the dashed hopes.

To be fair to the prime minister, he has not promised the nation anything more than the unvarnished truth that tough times will be ahead. To the sane likely voter, all he has to do is cast his eyes on events unfolding on the European continent and he will see that any political party in Jamaica that comes to the table with promises of pie in the sky has long decomposed. The leadership of such a party embarrasses itself and the voters to whom it makes such appeals simply because its thought processes are firmly locked in an era which is gone.

All political parties, however, that get the opportunity to choose an election date do so to suit their best chance at victory. The ruling JLP believes that it will reach the peak of its 'newness' and 'rebirth' in another few weeks to a month. After that, the love will begin to wane.

With no poll indicating a clear, safe distance ahead, the party that will win the elections will do so based on its visibility at the national and parochial levels in the next few weeks, its campaign speeches, ads and, most importantly, its ability to mobilise its party workers on election day.

On that basis, I cannot see the PNP outgunning the JLP.

Factors favouring the PNP as an opposition party are the obvious ones. The people want jobs and the national road network is a shambles. It seems to me that the allocation of JDIP funds to repair the road network was predicated on a late 2012 election date. In other words, had there been no change of JLP leadership, the first big wave of road repairs would have begun in the month leading up to elections in late 2012.

In the present instance I cannot see a big flurry of road repairs having any positive impact on the JLP's chances. Some other factors will have to trip in.

One reader e-mailed me the following: 'In your latest column, it would seem that the PM is taking a bold stance on corruption with the sacking of Mr Henry. But could it also be Mr Holness culling the herd, so to speak, and getting rid of some of the "old guard"?

'As for Mr Paulwell and his ranting, the poor PNP is like a soldier who came to fight a war with blanks in its gun. It has nothing positive to offer. It is more of the same old foolish politics. What a shame. I wonder what Norman Manley is thinking.'

As much as the PNP has used every opportunity to criticise the new prime minister on the grounds that his 'newness' is nothing new, the fact is that his bold moves in arranging the separation of the powerful Mike Henry from the transport and works ministry must be seen as a positive to the JLP and, by extension, the country. Those who say that it was a move of political expediency need to recognise that they cannot have it both ways. When Henry was there they called for his removal. After Henry left, they called it a politically expedient action.

Meanwhile, the contractor general has cited the reality of corruption in Jamaica by releasing a circular last Thursday under the heading, 'The Perception of Corruption in Jamaica Remains Unchanged'.

'The perception of the depth of corruption in Jamaica, as measured by Transparency International (TI), the global anti-corruption watchdog, indicates that nothing has changed over the past year which would lead the international community to accept that corruption is being effectively fought by the Jamaican State.

'In its 2011 Global Corruption Perception Index (CPI) Rankings, which were released late last night, TI scored Jamaica at a CPI of 3.3 out of a possible 10, with a country ranking of 86 out of 182 countries. In 2010, the country's CPI score was also 3.3, while it was ranked 87 out of 178 countries.

'In the past ten (10) years, Jamaica has never scored higher than 4.0 on TI's CPI, where a score of 10 is perceived to be least corrupt and 1 as most corrupt. 'The CPI ranks countries according to their perceived levels of public sector corruption. The 2011 index draws on different assessments and business opinion surveys that are carried out by independent reputable institutions. The surveys and assessments that are used to compile the index include questions which relate to the bribery of public officials, kickbacks in public procurement, embezzlement of public funds, and questions that probe the strength and effectiveness of public sector anti-corruption efforts.

"It should now be abundantly clear to all Jamaicans that unless they demand monumental changes in the country's existing moral, ethical and legal anti-corruption codes, and in its approach to the conjoint issues of transparency, accountability and good governance in the administration of the affairs of the Jamaican State, ten (10) years from now we will still be at the same place, talking about the same things", said Contractor General Greg Christie.

"The time has long passed for those who aspire to lead the Jamaican State to go beyond making mere lip-service statements about their intention to fight corruption. They must publicly state in lucid and specific terms the practical-step changes that they are prepared to take to effectively bring an end to corruption in Jamaica, and the respective time-frames within which these steps will be implemented. The question of what is in the best interest of Jamaica, as opposed to what is politically expedient, must be the common thread that defines all such proposed anti-corruption measures", said Mr Christie.

'Several germane remedial recommendations, in the foregoing regard, have already been formally presented by the Office of the Contractor General (OCG) to the prime minister and to the leader of the opposition for their consideration and implementation.

'TI, in its report, was moved to state that "Public-sector governance that puts the interests of its citizens first is a responsibility that is not restricted to any border. Governments must act accordingly. For their part, citizens need to continue demanding better performance from their leaders".

'Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana were the only countries in the English-speaking Caribbean that were ranked lower than Jamaica in TI's 2011 Rankings. Trinidad received a CPI score of 3.2 and a country ranking of 91, whereas Guyana was scored at 2.5 with a country ranking of 134.

'Barbados, The Bahamas, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, and Dominica, were all scored significantly higher than Jamaica at CPI rankings of 7.8, 7.3, 7.0, 5.8 and 5.2 respectively.

'New Zealand was ranked as the least corrupt country with a CPI score of 9.5, while North Korea and Somalia were both ranked at the other end of the 182 country scale with a CPI score of 1.0.'

The intensity that attends political parties literally fighting to get and retain state power ought to automatically inform us that politicians expect more than just the opportunity to 'serve'.

In reality politicians often use state power to enrich themselves and expose their friends in high places to the largesse of the polity. In its simplest form, men and women being chauffeured in air-conditioned, high-end vehicles with security detail is a transforming process where one moves from a human to an arrogant blob of protoplasm in as quick a time as it takes for one to say, 'minister'.

The person who is called 'prime minister' after the next elections needs to act with urgency on the urgings of the contractor general.

Manchester meeting is good political strategy for the JLP

Quite apart from the fact that the JLP, while in opposition, launched its 'Deliverance' campaign from a platform in Mandeville in 1980, the mass meeting today hopes to do a lot more.

First, all eyes will be on the Central Manchester constituency where the PNP's General Secretary Peter Bunting holds the seat and will be going up against the powerful Danville Walker.

Holding the meeting there to announce the election date will complete two major objectives. One, it will give a fillip to Danville Walker's campaign. It is widely speculated in JLP circles that they expect Walker to win and, should the JLP prevail nationally, as I expect it to, Walker is tipped to be the next minister of national security.

The second objective is the major one -- keeping the PNP general secretary 'trapped' in his constituency. This is a somewhat of a double-edged sword. To keep Bunting in his constituency is to ensure that he will not have the time to assist other PNP candidates, especially the newcomers, but it will also cause Bunting to concentrate all of his energies in fighting off the strong challenge from Walker.

In the last election, the then gen sec of the JLP, Karl Samuda, had his constituency 'locked' and could afford to attend to the back-breaking and mentally debilitating tasks of attending to the other 59 constituencies.

The PNP's Bunting can make no such claims of having his constituency 'locked'. It will be very difficult for him.

Certainly, after the leadership debates and the general electioneering, much will be seen in the directions that the individual seats will be trending to. It is known that the prime minister's seat will also attract major concentration of energy and resources from the PNP. Again, that is plain and simple, good politics.

At the end I expect the PM to retain his seat and, although it will be no easy task, after election day I expect Peter Bunting to be wringing his hands.

Happy 100th birthday, Ms Riley

The gracious Alma Mock Yen has informed us of the following.

Ms Riley's birthday is December 5, 2011, when she will be 100 years old.

'Miss Ivy Riley was born in Stewart Town, Trelawny on December 5, 1911. She grew up there and was educated at the Stewart Town Elementary School.

'In the early thirties she migrated to Kingston where she was employed in the citrus industry. She worked there for a number of years then decided to become an entrepreneur operating business in the community of Southside where she still resides.

'Miss Riley has two children who predeceased her, but she has mothered many. One such is Miss Thelma Virgo (Peeny) who presently takes care of her. She enjoys good health except for loss of sight which occurred a few years ago.

'When asked about her longevity she replied that she never thought about it but she took good care of herself and that God saw that she deserved it and spared her life.

'Miss Riley has not been active since she lost her sight, as in her own words "Me coward fi move up an down an me no want to give anyone any trouble".

'She is grateful to God for keeping her and ensuring that she is not shelterless or hungry or naked.

'This centenarian is able to have a conversation, is witty and expresses herself well.'

Happy birthday (when it comes), Ms Riley!

observemark@gmail.com

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