Don Anderson was surely right

Kishka-Kaye Anderson

Sunday, January 22, 2012

In the recently concluded General Election, the People's National Party (PNP), with its 'People Power' campaign, was victorious, winning by a landslide with 42 of 63 seats compared to 21 seats for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) with its 'Progress' campaign. Don Anderson and his team of researchers have been tracking the pulse of the Jamaican people with regards to their attitudes towards the Government and the Opposition since 2007.

Closer to the election day, Anderson was commissioned to do surveys to monitor more closely how Jamaicans were likely to vote on December 29, 2011. These surveys were commissioned by the CVM group, the Observer newspaper as well as the two political parties.

The Don Anderson polls are generally recognised as being the most credible as they correctly called the outcome of the last two general elections. In a much anticipated interview with Don Anderson on CVM TV's Direct on Tuesday, December 27, 2011, Anderson indicated that there were 51 seats that he could declare — 28 for the PNP and 23 for the JLP. He further indicated that there were another 12 battleground seats and six of these were comfortably trending towards the PNP.

These are highlighted in the table below denoted by "PNP?". The other six seats were currently held by the JLP but were not considered safe seats for them in this general election. However, as there was not sufficient information available on these seats to allow Don to make a definitive or speculative call they were left open, especially as they were solidly held by the JLP and also as all the other data available showed that the PNP would be the likely winner of the elections.

In that said interview, Don confirmed that he was indeed calling the General Election and predicted a victory for the PNP, expecting the party to get 34 seats. However, this seat count could be bigger depending on the outcome of the six seats he was unable to call. The table shown here outlines the Don Anderson seat count position leading up to December 29, 2011.

The Final Outcome

In the final analysis, Don Anderson took a position on 57 of the 63 seats, that is, he declared 51 seats and said six of the remaining seats were trending towards the PNP (see table). He also made it very clear that the remaining six seats were open and the outcome would be determined by the party with the better election day machinery.

Don was 93 per cent correct with his call, as 53 of the 57 seats on which he had a position went in the direction he said or expected them to go, while four did not. These four were declared by Don for the JLP but went to the PNP and included:

1. St Andrew West Rural with Gallimore for the JLP and Buchanan for the PNP

2. St Mary Western with Montague for the JLP and Silvera for the PNP

3. Hanover Eastern with Kerr Jarrett for the JLP and Duncan for the PNP

4. St Elizabeth South West with Christopher Tufton for the JLP and Hugh Buchanan for the PNP.

The above four seats were not studied leading up to the election as they were expected to be safe for the JLP, primarily due to the JLP's historical performance in these areas.

The Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) reported that 867,381 persons voted in the December 29, 2011 general election. Of this number, 53 per cent voted for the PNP and 47 per cent voted for the JLP (Sunday Gleaner, January 1, 2012). In the last national poll conducted by Don Anderson and his team of researchers — a poll commissioned by the PNP — it was reported that 41.4 per cent of electors were expected to vote for the PNP and 37.2 per cent were expected to vote for the JLP.

The remaining 21.4 per cent indicated that they did not know which party they would vote for or would not vote for any of the two major parties. A close analysis of the 78.6 per cent of the persons who said they would vote for either one of the two major parties shows that when taken out of a base of 100 per cent, this translates to 53 per cent for the PNP and 47 per cent for the JLP. This is exactly the outcome of the General Election 2011.

Don Anderson was surely right, not "dead wrong" as the naysayers and critics said leading up to Election Day 2011. Market Research Services Ltd (MRSL), home of the Don Anderson Polls, is completely satisfied that its methodology used to influence Don Anderson's successful call of the 2011 General Election is solid and continues to yield reliable and credible results.

MRSL also uses this opportunity to congratulate its CEO, Don Anderson and its team of professionals on a job well done! We also recognise that the Jamaican public continues to rely on our tried and proven methodology for providing reliable and credible data and will continue to uphold the quality assurance standards that have guided our operations over the years.

— Kishka-Kaye O'Connor Anderson is the COO of Market Research Services Ltd

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Don Anderson was surely right