Early poll must not compromise hard-won electoral standards

CLAUDE ROBINSON

Sunday, November 06, 2011

WITH the country's economy and finances in a state of crisis, an early general election is desirable so that citizens can choose from the contending parties a new government with a clear mandate to tackle the urgent issues that confront the majority of Jamaicans.

However, a prior condition for staging such an election must be that the systems and resources are in place to ensure that the process is demonstrably free of fraud, intimidation and skullduggery so that the losers can accept the results and the winners can get on with the job in the certain knowledge that the victory is not tainted.

Accordingly, the call from Opposition Leader and PNP President Portia Simpson Miller on the chairman of the Electoral Commission of Jamaica (ECJ) Professor Errol Miller and selected members of the electoral body to publicly state the earliest date on which an election can be held, at least to the standard of the last election in 2007, should not be brushed aside as partisan politicking or that the PNP was merely stalling for time to face an opponent more formidable than Bruce Golding.

The chairman and the independent members of the ECJ may be reluctant to state precisely the earliest date on which they will be ready for a general election so as not to appear to be usurping the exclusive prerogative of the prime minister to set the date; however, they have a duty to the Jamaican people and to the well-deserved reputation of the institution to ensure standards are maintained.

Prime Minister Andrew Holness, addressing the concerns of the opposition leader on Smile Jamaica on TVJ Wednesday morning, said he agreed standards must be maintained. This is a good initial response that must be followed with the cash to buy the supplies and train election-day workers.

The concerns of the opposition leader come against a background of increasing signs that the prime minister wants to go to the polls as early as possible to take advantage of the bump in JLP standings consequent on the departure of former Prime Minister Golding.

Even before his parliamentary colleagues coalesced around Mr Holness as their new leader and before his inauguration as prime minister the mere announcement that Mr Golding would be quitting as head of party and government was enough for JLP standings to rise sharply in public opinion polling. So it is understandable that Mr Holness will want to take advantage of the new situation.

A new voters' list is due to be published on November 30. Elections cannot be held on that list unless it is at least five days old, which means that Nomination Day cannot be earlier than December 6, and election day cannot be less than 16 days later, that is, December 22.

"If the elections are to be held this year, and the elections are to be held on a new list this year, the margin in which one would operate is going to be very tight," Director of Elections Orette Fisher cautioned Wednesday. The electoral office must be put in a position that removes any doubt from the director's mind.

Last month, the Ministry of Finance released $200 million to the ECJ out of $350 million the commission requested to intensify preparations for the elections. The finance ministry is expected to release the remaining $150 million this month, according to media reports.

One of the main concerns about election readiness is whether the electronic voter identification systems used in the last election will again be available at least to the same standard.

"I wish to make it very clear that the Opposition will not countenance an election being held at a standard below that of the 2007 general election, including at least the same number of polling stations utilising the Electronic Voter Identification and Ballot Issuing System," Mrs Simpson Miller said in the letter to the EOJ chairman.

Under this system a ballot paper is generated by the fingerprint of the voter. It is designed to prevent impersonation of an elector, multiple voting by persons and the use of unauthenticated ballots. Thus, it almost eliminates the risk of ballot stuffing and other election fraud by political enforcers in garrison communities.

In the 2007 general election, the system was used in sections of 10 constituencies and used entirely in three others including the prime minister's West Central St Andrew constituency, which has long exhibited some of the worst features of tribal and garrison politics, with accusations and counter-accusations of fraud, voting irregularities, violence and intimidation.

Mr Holness recognises that the garrison phenomenon remains part of the political landscape, hence his appeal to Mrs Simpson Miller to take a symbolic walk with him through his Tower Hill stronghold. She has been reticent and laid down some pre-conditions which sound like she is not ready to take the step.

Whether they walk or not and whether they disagree about the extent and significance of the garrison, the fact is that what Mr Holness aptly called political "zones of exclusion" are still a feature of Jamaican political life and they occur on both sides. The EOJ must insist that they have the time and resources to ensure that these 'zones' never again behave in the bad old ways.

Holding the parties accountable

In addition, the issues surrounding the stalled standby agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will not be tackled by a government facing an election. But, until they are resolved, the country will not be able to make further drawdowns from the fund.

Among other things, the Golding/Holness administration has been unable to provide the IMF with a credible programme to reduce the public sector wage bill and the public debt to the levels and the time frame stated in the agreement.

These issues were thrown into sharp relief by last week's statement by the rating agency Standard and Poor's (S&P) of a pending downgrade of Jamaica's sovereign debt and a change in the outlook from stable to negative. Simply put, the level of debt cannot be supported by a weak economy that has only begun to show signs of an upturn after three years of negative growth. Any further borrowing will be difficult and/or very expensive.

The debt is in the region of J$1.5 trillion, or 130 per cent of gross domestic product; interest costs of servicing it account for a third of the Government's expenditure; and, overall, debt servicing accounts for more than half the budget.

These numbers are unsustainable and will continue to be a drag on the economy, will make the country unattractive to private investors (foreign or domestic), and severely limit Government's ability to invest in public activities that would create jobs and promote economic growth.

In the immediate aftermath of the S&P statement Finance Minister Audley Shaw repeated what he has been saying for months, namely, that the JLP administration is on track to achieve the targets agreed with the IMF. And, predictably, he latched on to that part of the S&P statement which cast doubt as to whether a PNP administration would take the hard decisions implied in the S&P statement.

For his part, opposition spokesman on finance Peter Phillips affirmed the PNP's commitment, if it forms the Government, to honour any obligation it finds on taking office. And, predictably, he blamed the Golding/Holness administration for mismanaging the economy and failing to make the decisions that could have prevented the country from reaching this impasse.

In what might be a short campaign, it is possible that the real issues facing the country — an economy in crisis; high levels of unemployment especially among the young; growing concerns of the contractor general about lack of governmental commitment to deal with corruption and respect the rules regarding disposal of public office — will be seriously addressed by the candidates.

In these circumstances, media and civil society groups should identify the most pressing concerns of the electorate and pressure the parties and the candidates to say, with as much specifics as possible, how they will address them.

This is not a time for political one-upmanship and easy fixes normally associated with the so-called silly season. The stakes are way too high for that.

kcr@cwjamaica.com

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Early poll must not compromise hard-won electoral standards