Trinis in Mood for Political Change

WITH the governing People's National Movement in retreat, speculations are on the rise about the party's chances of retaining political power at a new general election, whenever it is called by its leader, Prime Minister Patrick Manning. The "time for change" chant has started to increase in volume.

Those quite familiar with the history of the PNM, in and outside of government, and more particularly under Manning's leadership, have cynically remarked that "you do not need a seer" to confirm that it's now a matter of time before a new government is elected.

That kind of optimism, however, poses a problem for me, familiar though I am with multi-party electoral politics in the plural society that is Trinidad and Tobago and the formidable reputation of the PNM's organising machinery.

Its women's arm has always been a crucial force in electoral politics, but this, I am told, may no longer be the case due to prevailing widespread complaints and disillusionment from within.

Further, there remains the factor of cynicism about the capacity of the opposition parties to spoil, by default, their chances for snatching victory from the PNM.

Often, it has resulted from a failure to build a credible 'unity foundation', plus the tendency to wallow in "leadership" opportunism and picong politics as they compete more against each other than with the PNM which, as the incumbent, holds the advantages normally associated with state power.

A new general election is not constitutionally due before November 2012, but local government elections - already postponed thrice and not expected beyond October this year - could well be the litmus test for the PNM's capacity for political survival and, at the same time, reveal the strength and vision of a united opposition to begin the process of "change in governance".

Straws in the wind

The political straws in the wind carry uncomfortable messages for Prime Minister Manning. The prevailing political climate in 2010 is fundamentally different from that of 2002 when the PNM returned to power, largely due to poor leadership judgement by then United National Congress leader and prime minister, Basdeo Panday.

In the current political scenario, the humiliating leadership defeat of Panday by the lawyer and woman rights advocate Kamla Persad-Bissessar has significantly energised more than the UNC's traditional constituencies.

The 'Kamla factor' seems to have also inspired a new spirit for change in the body politic that extends to known traditional PNM strongholds (like Diego Martin).

Experienced professionals who traditionally lean towards the PNM no longer appear willing to "hold strain", as the ruling party and its leader come under increasing pressure on ethical and other sensitive issues.

More recent examples would be the consequences of some bizarre and humiliating developments, such as the role(s) of a controversial 'seerwoman' and her church, and the even more troubling fiasco involving Calder Hart, the Canadian-born Trinidadian citizen and power-wielder of the mighty Urban Development Corporation of Trinidad and Tobago (UDECOTT). He was suddenly dismissed at the weekend by Prime Minister Manning -- hitherto his strongest defender.

Once perceived to be an envied "untouchable", Hart hastily resigned -- under pressure -- and departed, as did his equally controversial wife, leaving cabinet ministers and leading figures in the PNM alike to wonder what brought about his dramatic fall.

The citizens, including PNM 'bigwigs', were waiting -- up to the time of writing late last week -- for an explanation from the prime minister.

He had left for London to participate in a Commonwealth Day Observance Service at Westminster Abbey, while Hart was writing his resignation and leaving for Canada.

The word from informed PNM sources is that Manning had been told that the party could no longer bear the 'cross' of Calder Hart.

Other 'spins'

Undoubtedly, there will be other 'spins' when Manning makes an official statement on the tortuous 'Hart affair'. This could be as soon as the weekend, though he may wait for the next meeting of parliament to use the privileges afforded by that highest forum.

Anyone who monitors politics in Trinidad and Tobago will not fail to recall the very unwavering, principled and robust stand taken against Hart as head of UDECOTT by the PNM's Diego Martin West parliamentarian Keith Rowley who suffered the loss of his cabinet position in the process.

Now as 'boss woman' of the re-energised UNC, Persad-Bissessar is preparing to file a motion of no confidence against Manning -- listing examples of poor governance and how it is affecting the country. Rowley has already declared that he is not at all surprised by this move.

"Kamla," he remarked, "is the luckiest Opposition leader in the world. The minute she takes over the UNC all kinds of plums are falling in her lap... Of the 11 years I have spent in the Opposition, the grazing was never so good as it is now..." (Tuesday's Express).

In the circumstances, if Panday, the once reputed 'Anancy' politician, wishes to now personally write his inglorious epitaph, then in a curious way, Manning seems to want to simultaneously, though differently, lead the PNM out of power amid rising speculations of Persad-Bissessar becoming the country's first woman prime minister.

Yet, as the saying goes, in politics a week can be a pretty long time. And there are simply many, many more weeks ahead before Manning chooses to even signal the date for the upcoming local government election.

There is now, however, the risk that delaying the local government poll could well be to the advantage not of the UNC under Kamla Persad-Bissessar. Upon taking the oath as Opposition leader, she had boldly proclaimed the occasion as "one step to government". We shall see.

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