ALTHOUGH I knew and wrote that voter apathy was widespread, latching onto the conventional view that the election would have been close, I made assumptions that did not factor in the wholesale staying at home of 'issues voters' who have now, by their actions, concluded that it matters little which political party takes the reins.

With an unprecedented low turnout, below 50 per cent, only the base of both parties turned up for the show. As I've written many times, the PNP's base is larger than the JLP's, and in such a contest where only party diehards figured, the PNP would always have the advantage.

The reality is, about 25 per cent of enumerated Jamaicans elected the PNP to power.

Last Thursday, when my column predicted a close victory for the JLP, a reader e-maiIed me the following: 'I am an avid reader of your column. Having read your column today I do not share your sentiment that the JLP will win the election, although from my perspective I hope they do because the simple fact is that they are better managers of the economy in comparison to the Opposition PNP .

'My prediction with regards to the election is that the PNP will win. My simple explanation is that being a child of the 1970s I noticed that any time the country is on any stable financial footing the majority of the populace automatically vote PNP. Look at the 1972 and 1989 elections. It is only when the economy is in a devastating financial state that the local populace will ever turn to the JLP. Once the economy has the variables correct, the populace will in turn revert to the PNP.'

It is cliché to admit in these circumstances 'the voters have spoken'. It is usually the words spoken by the defeated while graciously handing power to the winner. Those are the words in a politician's mouth. For me, I will admit only that I spent too much time poring over what has now turned out to be the flawed canvassing of JLP candidates islandwide and in expecting the 'thinking voter' to show up. It is still my belief that the better party lost the elections.

In hindsight, the JLP has fallen prey to a world trend where incumbents are naturally seen as the easier target as people struggle with their daily lives. In retrospect, while the JLP has, in the post-independence history of this country, built a government model around using macro-economic variables and stability as a springboard for governance, it has never really learned how to meld that model with the showing of a human face. In other words, where both political parties have indulged in corruption, the PNP has learned how to share up the booty better than the JLP.

In addition, the PNP's redistributionist policies are naturally more favoured by the poor and unemployed who cannot eat 'stability'.

I have used the analogy of the JLP and the PNP planting hills of yams -- which we all know take about nine months to mature or 'ripen'.

Three months after the JLP planted yams, the people cried out and said they were hungry. The JLP shot back with, 'The yam nuh ready yet. Onnu haffi wait!'

Three months after the PNP planted yams, the people cried out and said they were hungry. The PNP said, 'My people, I hear your cry and I cannot bear it. Let us dig up di young yam dem and full wi belly!'

The fact is, it may have made good sense for the JLP to wait on the yam to mature but in politics, what does one do when the people cry out? Feed them young, bitter yams and borrow more money to plant the next set, which will also be dug up too early.

A dwindling electorate is dangerous

Where only the diehard, robotic base of both parties participated in the elections and one side captures two-thirds of the seats under such an arrangement, the question must be asked, which Jamaica do the political parties represent?

Can we honestly claim any broad-based representation, or is it that the PNP represents the poor and the JLP the not-so-poor?

As I asked in a recent column, 'Will unemployment, poor roads bite the JLP?' there was always going to be a believability factor facing both parties in terms of which one the people believed would deal with that pressing matter in a more urgent time frame.

The JLP Government had been claiming 'stability' of the macro-economic picture and 'continuity' as a springboard for development. This assumption was always centred on the idea that a poor man without a steady job or, more likely, perennially unemployed, could take that home with him and cook it for dinner.

The PNP countered with JEEP, which the party now says will be instituted. I wish it luck. This proposed emergency employment plan, workable or not, has been bought into by the people.

Because the JLP could not promise anything resembling this proposed crash programme, the assumption on the part of the JLP was always that the people would understand and wait, a most foolish position to hold if the JLP MPs had been in the trenches.

What has in fact transpired is that not many discriminating people believed either party so must we assume that only those who walked through the gates of the big dance and arrived early believed it?

With the PNP capturing 53 per cent of the popular vote and 65 per cent of the seats in the lowest turnout in recent memory, it means that increasingly the majority of voters are deciding to remain at home as election cycles continue. The danger of that is that as the voter turnout decreases, the party which wins theoretically only has to pander to the wishes and the desires of its immediate base.

If it takes a crash programme to satisfy that need, then so be it, but that is a dangerous downhill slide in social and economic terms and it operates against the success of any long-term development.

It appears to me that even the PNP was surprised at the win. One JLP supporter who did not vote told me Thursday night, "Last Christmas, nuh work, no money nuh run; this Christmas, same ting. Den a how dem expect fi win?"

One PNP supporter e-mailed me the following: "Well, to say I am surprised is an understatement. Not only did the PNP win, but it was, in reality, a landslide. I never imagined that at all. I can only assume that the voters were upset with the JLP regarding lack of employment, the 'Dudus' affair, the Manatt enquiry, the JDIP scandal and the unimpressive debate between Mr Holness and Mrs Simpson Miller. Surprise, surprise. It was not even close.

"My worry is that the PNP did not expect this. It is like a "buck up". I do not believe they are ready to govern and lead Jamaica to prosperity and development. I say this as a PNP supporter. But I will watch carefully and see what the PNP does."

Many people expect jobs next year

It is typical that I send my Sunday column to the Observer on a Thursday.

This time around, things were very obviously different. Many of my 'socialist' friends, taxi drivers, artisans, unemployed were in a jubilant mood. The word I heard as I ventured out on Friday morning was 'power'. Reminded me a bit of 1972 and 1989.

As I spoke to young people aged between 25 and about 37 or so, it occurred to me that the PNP will be having a problem on its hands later on.

"What are you expecting next year?" I asked them. The answer was jobs.

"Yu si all di garment factory dem. Wi waan dem open dem back and gi di woman dem some wuk."

Another agreed with the 'work' response but he also said, "Di young people dem nuh have no community centre. Wi want fi set up one".

Politicians are near-idiots, I believe. In almost every constituency I have polled since 1993 (I did no national polls this time around) the people in the constituencies have bawled about community centres. Why must this now be a problem after so many years? Is it not easier to provide a constituency with a well-maintained community centre than to provide 500 jobs for young people who are terribly undereducated and have no great interest in farming?

One older PNP voter, 56 years old, captured another side of what makes Jamaican politics hum, even when it makes little sense. When I asked him what he expected to see next year under his party, he answered, "Nutten! Mi jus feel better when PNP in power, Is just my choice. Mi nuh believe dem can do any better dan di JLP but mi comfortable wid dem."

Another man, a university graduate, suggested that the situation was similar to one where a young woman wanted a baby. "She is only dealing intimately with two men who are sterile, who cannot impregnate her. So, in the end she settles for the better lover."

Overall though, the main ingredient on the expectation list for next year is jobs. The burden to supply that in the middle of an IMF agreement with conditionalities is likely to be extremely problematic for the PNP, which will not have any wiggle room to juggle a crash programme.

Candidates who got their just deserts

Andrew Gallimore of West Central St Andrew was always begging for a well-deserved defeat.

In the weeks leading up to the election many of his own supporters were telling me that he would be losing the seat. "Him tek di people fi granted an' believe seh him own di seat fi life," said a disgruntled JLP supporter to me at the latter part of last week.

As is typical of constituencies islandwide, the road network there is horrible, and Gallimore has never deemed it important to report to his constituents on the status of the roads until a week or so before the election. One person said to me on Friday morning, "Mi ask him bout something and him tell mi sey mi fi talk to somebody else as if seh him nuh have nuh time fi wi. Him deserve fi lose. A 11 year him deh yah now and a only one time mi si him. Mi si Mr Buchanan bout four time."

I congratulate Paul Buchanan, although I know little about him (apart from the things I have been told, some good, some not so very good) and what he is capable of.

Dwight Nelson of South East St Andrew was never going to be in the winning column even if the JLP had scraped through as I expected. He had embarrassed the nation while giving testimony in the Manatt enquiry with his disingenuous bouts of "I can't recall" and made us look upon his status as security minister with much suspicion. Julian Robinson is to be congratulated; may we never see Nelson's face in politics again.

Clive Mullings of West Central St James will not be missed by many in the 'thinking' class. Trying to take a cheap advantage of Portia Simpson Miller's promise to review the buggery law, he took to the pulpit recently and said, "We must understand that for a nation to be blessed, for a nation to grow, we cannot depart from God's words. No nation, no nation that seeks to move away from God's words can succeed."

As if that was not enough, he then quoted the Bible in the hope of gaining added effect, "The Lord poured down sulphur and brimstone on Sodom and Gomorrah". Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yawn.

The buggery law backlash which the JLP expected may have had some impact on the turnout, but it didn't trouble the PNP in the end.

Laurie Broderick of Northern Clarendon and Ernie Smith of St Ann South West were JLP candidates who spent too much time preening their feathers and admiring the man in the mirror instead of dealing with the immediate and long-term problems of their constituents. Had they learned the fine art of listening while tuning out their insistence on talking and believing they were God's gift to intelligence, the results could have been different.

I commiserate with Bobby Montague of Western St Mary in losing his seat, but it is a fact that the Western St Mary seat always goes with whichever party wins the election. It was always my belief that he had been doing a good job, although some of his public utterances were highly misunderstood by those who did not know the background which gave rise to those very utterances.

Montague will rise to fight again.

Was this a victory for Portia Simpson Miller?

I need not remind readers that it is my belief that the PNP needs effective leadership.

To politicians, however, leaders are most effective when they are able to win elections so, in the end, the victory must be claimed as hers if even for the reason that were the PNP defeated, the loss would have been chalked up to her.

To me, effective leadership is in creating a team that has a developmental vision of Jamaica and not just shouting from the podium. It must be remembered that in Jamaican politics, the biggest noise and the more catchy gimmicks tend to win elections.

If it is accepted that elections in Jamaica are never won or lost on issues, what is it then that our people want?

The JLP has claimed that the Manatt matter harmed it. I disagree with that. The election was lost by the JLP on its insistence on championing 'stability' and 'continuity' where no jobs were available.

Do the people believe that jobs will suddenly materialise under the new PNP administration, or did those who vote simply use the opportunity to take their superior numbers first past the post?

The fact is, Jamaica's economic problems will not suddenly go away, but for now an extended fete can be held.

Amid the blowing of horns and the shouts of victory, much will be drowned out. The JLP will retreat into its shell as the burden of running an impossible country shifts to the PNP.

What will be the model for the immediate future?

It appears to me that having secured her personal mandate, the leadership of the party will switch from Simpson Miller before the next general election. As the present season favours targeting the incumbent administration, the PNP will need to reinvent itself three, four years from now as people begin to feel the real pain and hardships that will come as the global economy dances delicately on a knife edge.

What future for Andrew Holness?

DECIDING to call an election because of the fear of the economic realities that will descend on the nation in 2012, the JLP's gambles paid off very negatively. He called an election without quite knowing where his party was in the polls.

Apart from that, he had the gall to announce to the nation that next year we would face a tough time. By now, we ought to realise that Jamaican voters have a need to be lied to.

Andrew Holness made two other errors apart from being boring from the podium in the last days before the election. He allowed Bruce Golding to campaign on behalf of the JLP when it was known that Golding's name would always invoke a political negative, and second, he also allowed himself to be seen as a protégé of Seaga. Indeed, Seaga loudly endorsed him where nationally, Seaga is only loved by older, rockstone Labourites.

Both men had a death wish for Holness even if their intentions meant something else more positive for him. But ego, I suppose, can hardly be suppressed by those who have grown old on it.

As always, political parties do their best work in opposition, and I have no doubt that the JLP will use the time in opposition to rethink its purist conservative model where the people must wait on development. The results have shown that the people, lesser numbers of them than before, have rejected that model.

Can a party change the philosophy that drives the mechanics of its governance? That is the big question that the JLP, its leader and its leadership must ponder as they spend the next five years in lonely opposition.

observemark@gmail.com

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