BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Just as in any election, it's the undecided voters who will make the difference in Iraq.
With a historic ballot being held today, the hopes and plans of the country's key Sunni Arab minority remain largely unknown.

That is why the weeks before the election have been consumed with political jockeying, the lowering of expectations and bloody insurgent violence.

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Residents of Sadr City rally with election posters and flags of Shiite clerics Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and Muqtada al-Sadr, in Baghdad yesterday. Iraqis are to choose a 275-member National Assembly and legislatures in each of the 18 provinces in today's balloting. (Photo: AP)

Iraq's government and its US backers have focused on encouraging Sunnis to go to the polls despite calls by leading Sunni clerics to boycott the election. Iraqi leaders and their American allies stress that any turnout at all by Sunnis, however low, is a sign of democratic progress.

The guerrillas and terrorists like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, mostly Sunni themselves, have focused on disrupting the process and scaring people away from the polls. They fear significant turnout by their fellow Sunnis might give any new government, even one dominated by rival Shiite Muslims, a big boost.

The country's other two major groups, the majority Shiites and close-knit Kurds - while not monolithic - are expected to turn out in big numbers and vote for their own.

What will actually happen with Sunni Arabs, though, remains unclear, and may take considerable time to figure out whether they voted or not.
Before the election, the Sunni Arabs were never reliably or independently polled.

The US Government has commissioned some surveys, but those done recently are widely seen as unreliable because they have not penetrated into the insurgent strongholds where many Sunnis live.

Also, Sunnis may have less incentive to vote because many Sunni politicians refused to take part in the election. They and leading Sunni Muslim clerics had demanded a postponement of the vote because of Iraq's violence.

Even on election day itself, determining the level of Sunni participation will be difficult, said Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq analyst with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Many Iraqi Sunnis live in mixed communities like Baghdad. Since voters aren't registered by their religious affiliation, there will be little immediate way of learning how many eligible Sunnis voted.

On top of that, the actual results of the vote could take 10 days or more to become known.
That means the real determination of success or failure may come days, weeks or even months after the vote, when the top v ote-getting parties begin to make deals to form a new government.

It's possible no party will win an outright majority today, although the party endorsed by a top Shiite cleric will probably do best. So the parties will have to jockey.

Cordesman said he believes the key indicator of a fruitful vote hinges on whether the parties that gain votes today can build a Government that includes members of Iraq's ethnic minorities - Sunnis, Kurds, Turkomen and others.

If Iraq's majority Shiites dominate the Government, and make little effort to bring in other groups, the election could produce a prime minister and a Government that further divides Iraq. Some even worry about civil war.

"If the election produces more tension between groups, then obviously the election is a failure," Cordesman said.
In the end, what's most important is whether - after all the deals and back-room negotiations - Iraqis accept whatever government emerges.

Why does all this matter to people outside Iraq?
The Sunni Arab rebellion can't survive and prosper without money and support from average Sunnis, says Michael Radu, a terrorism analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia.

If the country ends up with a government backed by regular Sunnis, then at least some Sunnis might drop their support for insurgents. That could mean American troops will come home sooner.
But, if the country ends up with a government that Sunnis dislike, some might ratchet up support for the rebels.

It all comes down to how many vote. Iraq's president said yesterday he's hopeful many will. But, he added, he thinks many will actually stay away.

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