Noted pollster Don Anderson delivered a rather enlightening speech to the Rotary Club of Kingston a few days ago. It is unfortunate that only a limited audience heard him and that despite some TV coverage, the newspapers seem to have passed up coverage.

Geof Brown

In this country, political analysis is largely reduced to whether one favours the PNP or the JLP. So it was refreshing to hear someone of acknowledged expertise give a mini-dissertation on matters political from a strictly analytical perspective.

I will not attempt to rehash the Anderson presentation; I expect he would be willing to oblige the seriously interested with an email version. But one aspect of his thesis was intriguing to me as one who has dabbled in predictions of electoral competition outcomes with a bit of success. This is the matter of "likeability" of political candidates versus rational choices based on issues of significance.

According to Anderson, the likeability of candidates in a political contest is a greater determinant of electoral outcomes than the soundness of the candidates' positions (my words).

He was not of course referring to the Jamaican context in a limited way; he was rather drawing on a wide number of experiences in the history of politics. Citing a number of instances, the pollster showed how electoral success has attended such charismatic political figures as JFKennedy, Bill Clinton and Michael Manley. I could not help chuckling as I recalled how my mother, a very upright lady, would light up at the sight of Bill Clinton who was "her boyfriend."

Yet she was a very careful judge of people based on their assessed merits. Clearly, however, the best-liked political candidates can fall from grace and be rejected by an electorate as was the case with Trudeau in Canada and Michael Manley in Jamaica. But each had a ringing come-back later.

SIMPSON MILLER... fell in popular favour from some 70+ per cent to 64 per cent

Anderson addressed the matter of popularity as a corollary of charisma and likeability. He observed that a standing of 60 per cent or higher for a political candidate in the public opinion polls is "phenomenal".

Naturally, that leads one to consider the case of Portia Simpson Miller who recently fell in popular favour from some 70+ per cent to 64 per cent - assuming the reliability of the opinion poll. As I observed in a previous piece, how happy President George Bush would be to have such a fall! But the implications for our local politics is of some significance. Bruce Golding, the leader of the party opposing that of Prime Minister Simpson Miller, is not an unlikeable person. Indeed, he has a slightly impish grin and can be quite charming.

How well will that serve him and his party against the overwhelming popularity of Portia Simpson Miller in the showdown of a general election? Given the Anderson formula of likeability equals succcess, will Bruce's charm outweigh the charisma of his opposite number?

But there are implications within her own party for the popularity and likeability of Prime Minister Portia. It is about the coat-tail effect. Much heavy weather has been made of late concerning the internal divisiveness within the PNP.

Some of us have seen this as the inevitable fall-out of a bruising and intensely fought campaign for the leadership, resulting in a narrow win for Simpson Miller over Peter Phillips. But when the call is made for a general election, look for the PNP to close ranks. For the popularity of their leader will increase the likelihood of her coat-tails giving even weak candidates a safe ride to power.

And the lady's coat-tails will be long, if the Anderson formulation of likeability applies. For it won't be an internal fight for PNP delegate votes but a contest of political party versus political party. When that reality sinks in, watch for the internal divisiveness in the PNP to vanish.

Do not be fooled. The JLP is well aware of the phenomenon of Portia's popularity affecting their chance to form the government. Their well-articulated campaign to tie her to the performance of her party in its long run as government is proof of that.

But it is less the possibility of overturning the Simpson Miller popularity that will make the party prevail against the Portia-led PNP.

It is rather the probability or not of Simpson Miller making such strong mistakes, that would cause the electorate to fall out of love with her as happened temporarily in the cases of Pierre Trudeau in Canada and Michael Manley in Jamaica. Given the necessarily short time before the Prime Minister calls an election to seek her own mandate, it will be most interesting to see whether she can make such a volley of serious mistakes as to dethrone herself.

We are facing a very intriguing political season. Will the Anderson thesis be vindicated or shot down?

browngeof@hotmail.com

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