THE man has been in his element all week long; he behind the microphones mouthing his cynicism, blending it well with speculation as to what the party standings are likely to read come next Sunday and, due to the fact that the Stone Team has changed hands, he has more than implied that somehow, that has to do with me scripting that last-minute poll in 2002.

Mark Wignall

I will grudgingly admit that he is my favourite talk-show host, not only because of his intellect but because I find him entertaining and sometimes relevant. In the same breath, I am standing behind that 2002 poll.

Maybe we were wrong and could not read, at the time, a most politically confounded electorate which was being dragged in all directions - Should Seaga leave or stay? Is Golding a traitor or a saviour? Should we keep the corrupt, tired PNP or swap it for a not well-liked Seaga?

'Mutty' Perkins skirts the edge in discussions of that poll and my role in it. He may not say it directly but after listening to him, one may get the distinct impression that he could be implying that the poll was concocted for the benefit of the PNP.

Let me publicly say that it is my belief that the Stone Team is in good hands. Surely with interests close to the Observer owning the Stone Team, even Perkins should be able to see that if I am to continue writing on political matters (which could include criticisms of poll findings), once the Stone Team changed hands, it would require me to relinquish all direct contacts with the polling organisation. Sounds simple enough to me.

PERKINS... has been criticising the Stone Poll findings

All of this week Perkins has been criticising the poll findings in relation to voting age Jamaicans' view on the prime minister. The findings in this connection matches with previous poll findings and ought not to surprise those who have been following up the polls and my column.

Just recently I wrote that in making judgments of our political leaders, the electorate utilises some well-honed biases. In my attempt to explain it, let us look back at Michael Manley and Seaga. Let us assume that both men in their days were yam farmers.

In the country town where they live, they are economically sound and are looked up to by the mostly poor families living close to them. Four months after both have planted all the available yam heads, the hungry men in the district descend upon Seaga and say, 'We are hungry, our children cry at night and our women have begun to turn their eyes and their favours away from us. Give us yam so that we can feed our loved ones.'

An unsmiling Seaga surveys the throng and say, 'My heart is not as hard as the other farmer wants you to believe. I feel your pain but my yam takes nine months. It is only four months in the ground and as you know, young yam "chowy chowy" and bitter. Go home and fend for yourselves as I know you can until I can help you in five months' time.'

The men leave, cussing Seaga bitterly. They walk all the way to Manley's farm and calls out to him, using his nickname, "Joshua, yow, hear our pleas! We are hungry, our children cry at night and our---'

'What!' Manley shouts. 'Oh, my heart is heavy, I can't bear this, oh, the pain. Let me give you all cutlass, fork, hoe and shovel. I know that wicked man denied you your entitlement under God's laws. Go forth and dig up young yam to your heart's content and suck down some sinkle bible. The Lord will provide for us in five months' time.'

At the height of Manley's time, he could do nothing wrong. In the present poll findings, the respondents have answered some questions using their inbuilt biases. Portia who is loved unconditionally is perceived to be 'better' than Bruce Golding in every area of managing the economy.

Weeks ago I said that where judgments are being made of Portia and Golding, the electorate makes mental 'additions' to Portia and 'extracts' from Golding BEFORE the questions are even presented to them. I call it a knee-jerk, love response.

In addition, in asking these 'difficult' questions to rural folk and most of the lesser educated persons in urban settings, the nod is always given to the name and the person who is most loved, most admired. And that name and person is Portia.

I am certain that the new pollsters will recognise early that where a leader is widely loved and admired, should there be a 'why' question in relation to say, 'Why do you believe that Portia Simpson Miller would do a better job at improving education, resolving foreign debt, etc than Bruce Golding?' the majority of the answers would be, 'A just feel so'. In other words, where a leader takes on messianic and/or 'mother-like' qualities, the percentage of 'a just feel so' received in probing the responses usually approaches 75% of the 'answers'.

I am certain that some of the responses must have shocked even the prime minister herself who has done little or, according to some close to her, she has had too little time to do anything of note since her elevation to the post of prime minister. And, of course, Bruce Golding must be wringing his hands as he finds it hard to get significantly into the ratings among PNP and most of the uneducated poor.

The PNP should not at this time become complacent for the simple reason that the electorate has begun to allow pragmatism to seep in. Weeks ago I wrote about that very observation, that is, the electorate making one judgment on matters the respondents know little about (like policy making) and, making another, more sober judgment on voting, something quite familiar to them.

If the numbers match up with those I have been seeing in a few privately commissioned constituency polls I have conducted in the last two weeks, the PNP may not be out of the woods as it may want to believe it is. It is still my belief that the PNP lost an opportunity to call an early election in July.

Had the prime minister got her act together, that is, had she quelled all the myriad disturbances in her party by say, May, had an updated voters' list ready and announced the election date, the campaign following on the euphoria would have blown the JLP out of the water. Now, a whole new ball game is in town and Portia may soon find that lost opportunities, like arrows in flight, never return.

observemark@gmail.com

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