Battle for Central Manchester heats up

NOT three weeks after formally announcing his candidacy as the JLP's man in Central Manchester, Danville Walker is said to be making serious inroads into the constituency which has been held by the PNP's Peter Bunting since 2007.

It was a flu-plagued Walker who spoke to the Sunday Observer over a week ago, his illness, a testament, he claimed, to the fact that he hasn't left the constituency since his formal entry to politics and that he had been trodding the hills and valleys of the cool climes of Manchester continuously.

"My job is to run as hard as I can and don't look back. I just run the race and hope that I win when I reach the finish line," said Walker.

That race, according to his party, is paying dividends already.

The results of an internal poll conducted early last month by the JLP claim that more persons in key sections of the constituency, including traditional PNP strongholds, are showing strong support for the JLP newcomer compared to the PNP's Bunting.

The survey, a copy of which was obtained by the Sunday Observer, was conducted between November 5 and 9 across 22 communities in all four electoral divisions in the constituency, namely:

* Bellefield - 5 communities - 86 interviews;

* Knockpatrick - 5 communities - 112 interviews;

* Royal Flat - 5 communities - 126 interviews; and

* Mandeville - 7 communities - 126 interviews

Commissioned pollster, Mark Wignall, used a team of five interviewers and interviewed a total of 450 voting age adults in the constituency. Those interviewed (52 per cent male, 48 per cent female) were said to be a close match in terms of the age and occupational profile of voters in the constituency.

According to the survey, the sample margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

The survey shows that in Knockpatrick, 42 per cent of voters said they would give their vote to the JLP, while 40 per cent said they would give it to the PNP. Twenty-one per cent refused to say.

In Royal Flat, the breakdown, according to the JLP internal poll, was 44 per cent in favour of the JLP and 40 per cent for the PNP, while 16 per cent refused to say.

In the capital of Manchester, the PNP appeared to have a slight lead in terms of support, with 41 per cent of voters saying they would give the nod to the Opposition, while 40 per cent said they preferred to vote for the ruling JLP. Nineteen per cent declined to state who their preference was.

In Bunting's stronghold of Bellefield, the JLP appeared to have made the least inroads, garnering 32 per cent of voter support there, compared to the PNP's 47 per cent.

Walker admitted during a subsequent interview with the Sunday Observer that his plan for this particular area had not been as successful as he had wished, but nonetheless declared he had significant support even there.

"The polls show in the PNP stronghold of Bellefield, they (the PNP) are a little stronger than us, but we don't care, we will work hard in Bellefield also," said Walker. "Support is there too, the support is growing. The trick is to get them to the polls," said the JLP challenger for the Central Manchester seat.

"Mr Bunting clearly believes he is the only person with common sense. The electorate are not as dumb as he feels they are," said Walker derisively.

He insisted that most of the grave problems facing the electorate in the constituency he seeks to lead failed to improve under Bunting who, he suggested, needs to have his hand held by more experienced PNP officials.

"After four years in the seat, you have to go for John Junor... to run for your mama, John Junor, to come hold your hand while you walk through your constituency...," Walker taunted, alluding to claims that the MP has not been a regular sight in some areas; something the JLP internal poll also points to:

"His (Bunting) performance ratings are consistent with MPs who fail to visit their constituencies often. His 'good' ratings are 38 per cent while his 'poor' ratings are 49 per cent. It ought to be said that Bunting's good ratings are somewhat better than this researcher has seen in polls in three constituencies," read the JLP survey summary.

But Bunting, when contacted for comment, dismissed Walker's statement about needing Junor's help.

"That's just petty. John Junor maintains a practice in the constituency, has maintained one for the last four years. He is the parish campaign co-ordinator for the PNP and that's why he is there," said Bunting.

"I welcome his participation in the campaign and we work together as a team and that is how the PNP operates."

Junor corroborated this in a subsequent call to the Sunday Observer, comparing his role with Bunting to that being played by former JLP general secretary Karl Samuda for Walker in the constituency.

Walker also took additional shots at his opponent declaring that Bunting seemed to be in a race to ascend to the leadership of the Opposition party, with the constituents suffering as a result.

"Mr Bunting is in a leadership race. I want to make sure he has all the time in the world to concentrate on that leadership race," he said.

But Bunting dismissed the assertion. "That is just a shallow attempt to create some division within the PNP and I won't dignify the comment with a further response," he said.

However, Walker said the difficulty his opponent has is trying to convince the constituents that another four years with him at the helm will be any different than the previous years. Plus, he said, Bunting is up against a candidate that knows how to work, harkening back to his public sector stints as director of elections and commissioner of customs and his image as a man who gets the job done.

The survey also indicated that "35 per cent of respondents see it as a 'good move' for Walker to be running on a JLP ticket. This is supported almost equally by swing voters, the uncommitted, and likely JLP voters. Twenty-four per cent see it as a 'bad move', but expected. That is mostly supported by those likely to vote for the PNP."

The survey seems to back Walker up on this with 31 per cent of those polled in the constituency recorded as having a favourable view of him as a former head of the Electoral Office of Jamaica. Overall, 31 per cent of respondents have a favourable view of him. Thirty-six per cent of the uncommitted have a favourable view of him, while 40 per cent of JLP voters have similar views.

Although Walker enjoys a high profile nationally, the jury is still out in the constituency in terms of making a definitive judgement of him, the survey said.

Those who have expressed an unfavourable view of him (11 per cent) are, in the main, strong PNP voters/supporters who allege that he assisted in stealing the election for the JLP in 2007 and that he is untrustworthy.

Bunting was confident that he has every possibility of eradicating any bounce the JLP may have recently seen.

"The Labour Party in the constituency would have got their bounce from two things — from the changing of the prime minister and the getting of a candidate which they hadn't had for some time," he said. "Those two things would have given them a bounce in late October, whenever those changes took place. My expectation is that by the time the elections are held that would have dissipated... I don't think there is much more bounce that they are going to get.

He sought to pour cold water on the JLP's mass meeting planned for this evening in Mandeville square where Prime Minister Holness is expected to announce the election date.

"This meeting is just about the JLP trucking in or busing in a whole heap of people from across the island, so really this is not going to reflect the Central Manchester crowd," he said.

In the meantime, Walker has expressed reservations that with his perceived progress, his opponent's supporters might resort to more serious deterrents than before, referring to the vandalism of his billboard within days of its erection in Mandeville.

"The one concern I have is their desperation, which, in the past, has led them to do desperate things. They started with my billboard," Walker said.

But this elicited a swift retort from Bunting.

"When the Labour Party came though on Wednesday and they destroyed Mykael Phillips' billboard in Mile Gully, why didn't he demand that his side replace the billboard? he asked. "I think he is being hypocritical and that he is being irresponsible with his statements about expectation of sabotage, and I can't help wondering if this is the pretext for more to come.

"We saw what happened in 2007, where my campaign vehicle was riddled with AK-47 bullets and four of my supporters around me were murdered. So I beg him, please don't start creating the environment for that," said Bunting.

The JLP survey, though concluding that the party had great potential to meet its target of digging the incumbent from his seat, also warned the party that it cannot take for granted that the PNP's support in the key constituency has stalled.

"While general polling over the last year would tend to support that trend, in the Central Manchester constituency, the high-profile incumbent in Peter Bunting will be pulling out all stops to retain his seat," the survey said.

That is something that Bunting himself told the Sunday Observer.

"The team that is going to be more effective campaigners between now and the election, and that has the more efficient organisation, will win," he said. "I think we have done our work in terms of building our organisation. Mr Walker has been on the ground now without my being able to be there full time, because I have Parliament, I have the electoral commission, I have committees of Parliament, (plus) all the other responsibilities I have.

"But you know, when I get on the ground when the formal campaign has started, I am going to try to ensure that the people get the message — hold those accountable for issues that are important to them, those who have done nothing to create jobs in the country. Those who have mismanaged the spending, why the roads are bad. All the issues that people have pointed out in the poll. My job is to ensure that I communicate to them that this Government is responsible for that and that is who they must pass judgement on," he said.

Bunting's successes also cannot be dismissed, the summary offers.

"Those who say they intend to vote for him cite 'it's my party', 'tradition' and, to a much lesser extent, Bunting's likeability. In that judgement, he doesn't bring much to the table in terms of his personality's likely influence on the final vote," the survey summarises, noting that organisation and funding will be key, and that these are areas Bunting is noted for.

Junor, as the PNP's campaign director for the central region, said the PNP has completed its own internal canvass of the seat, which shows a clear lead for its candidate.

"We are now in the stage where the analysis indicates a clear lead for Bunting in the constituency, and I'm not talking a clear lead anywhere near his margin for the last time (2007 elections). I'm talking over 1,000 (votes)," said Junor.

"Canvasses done in that constituency have been remarkably accurate," he insisted, asserting that the party has never been as organised in the constituency as it is at this point prior to Nomination Day. He said the PNP had been able to "predict its results within margins of 14-28 per cent".

Notwithstanding the PNP canvass, the JLP internal survey concludes that Walker's perceived competence as a public servant, his ability to get the job done, and the need to give the new Prime Minister Holness a 'try', are essentially the factors that the JLP needs to exploit, along with a superior organisational machinery, if it wants to wrest the Central Manchester seat from the PNP.

The survey team concludes it is a winnable seat for the JLP.