JLP holds 19-point lead

JLP holds 19-point lead

36% of respondents say they'll vote for ruling party, 17% say PNP

Sunday, August 09, 2020

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Significantly more people would vote for the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) if a general election was held today, according to the latest Bill Johnson poll.

In fact the poll, conducted July 9-12, found that the JLP opened a 19 percentage-point lead over the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) since a previous survey conducted March 12-15, 2020.

Both polls, which used a sample size of 1,200 voting-age Jamaicans and have a sampling error of 2.5 per cent, were commissioned by the Jamaica Observer. However, the March survey was not published due to the COVID-19 outbreak in the country.

Johnson said when his team of researchers asked people which of the two parties they think they would vote for in the next general election, a total 36 per cent of respondents in the July poll said the JLP, compared to a total 17 per cent who said the PNP.

The numbers in the March poll were 33 per cent JLP and 19 per cent PNP.

The undecided were 18 per cent in March and 20 per cent in July, while those who said they would not vote were 27 per cent in March and 25 per cent in July.

“The JLP increased its lead over the PNP from 14 points to 19 points from our March survey to our July survey,” Johnson said in his analysis of the data.

He also said the poll found that 30 per cent of respondents who acknowledged that they voted for the PNP in the 2016 General Election “are not planning to vote for the party today”.

Pointing to the voting age demographics captured in the July poll which showed more support for the JLP across six age groups, the veteran pollster said, “the JLP crushes the PNP among those under 45 years of age”.

That data supports a popular view that Prime Minister Andrew Holness, the 48-year-old JLP leader, is enjoying huge popularity among younger Jamaicans.

He also said “almost one-half of those who say they would vote for the PNP are voting for the party because of tradition alone”.

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