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New predictions of fewer hurricanes and reduced chance of hurricane landfall in region

Wednesday, July 04, 2018

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BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) — The Caribbean should see fewer storms, and the chance of a major hurricane hitting the region is significantly less than it was when the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season began.

That's according to the latest forecast released by Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and his team at the Colorado State University on Monday.

They predict that there will be 10 storms – 11 in total when Subtropical Storm Alberto which formed in May is included – and four of them will become hurricanes, with one of those being a major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5).

In its April forecast, the Colorado State University team said there would be 14 named storms, seven of which would develop into hurricanes – three of them major. Then at the end of May, although the predicted number of storms remained the same, it was forecast that six would become hurricanes, two of them major.

“We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have below-average activity,” the Klotzbach said.

“The tropical and subtropical Atlantic is currently much colder than normal, and the odds of a weak El Nio developing in the next several months have increased”.

And while the meteorologists in their April forecast put the probability of a major hurricane reaching the Caribbean at 53 per cent, which was revised downward to 42 per cent in May, the latest prediction is that the chances are even lower – now at 31 per cent.

Last year, there were 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes, including Hurricanes Irma and Maria which devastated some parts of the Caribbean.


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