Last week I indicated that the food crisis was shaping up to be the number one concern for Jamaica and the world, taking over from oil. That is not to say that oil prices are not a major concern. But if faced with a choice between gas and food, I am sure that very few would choose gas over food. Although I am pretty confident that given the Jamaican psyche, some of us would still choose gas. On the other hand, lack of food can also give you gas.

Apart from the fact that food is a basic necessity, and not oil, the fact is that as the US dollar strengthens and consumers adjust their consumption patterns, then the price of oil will start to decline. Already over the past two days we have seen where oil has dropped off quickly from the high of US$119.93/bbl, as the US economy has started to show signs of a recovery.

The ethanol dud

It is logical that this recovery will happen, as normal markets move in both directions, unless paralysed by government policies as in Jamaica's case. My main concern about the oil situation is that the price push has moved from technical to fundamental factors. In other words, the analysts believe that demand and supply concerns will become the main factor behind the oil story, which means that even a stronger US dollar may not be enough to push the price of oil down.

In addition to that they are also saying now what I have been saying for a while, that ethanol is highly overrated. Ethanol actually costs more per gallon than gas, because it burns more quickly and costs more to transport. Even though it still has a place, it will not be a suitable replacement for oil. My own opinion is that two better alternatives are solar power and coal.

The other major problem with ethanol is that it is one factor behind the increase in food prices, as for example, the US Congress has mandated that 25 per cent of corn production be used for ethanol. Maybe we can all use it as alcohol and drink ourselves to death before the effects of this silly decision kill us first. In Jamaica's case, we have an excellent opportunity to decrease our oil consumption. It did take some time to put the necessary policies in place, possibly as a result of our mammoth bureaucratic structure, but there are still a lot of savings that can be had. Of course there are those who again are touting a tax on gas as the way to curb consumption, again demonstrating the lack of creative thinking.

But what our bureaucracy needs to ensure now, is that we do not take as long to address the food crisis as we did the energy situation. Whereas lack of oil will only help to make us fitter, and maybe go to our beds earlier, the lack of food will ensure that when we go to bed we don't wake up. It is within this context that instead of criticising the use of cassava we need to embrace the suggestions made by the "cassava man", Chris Tufton.

Self-sufficiency

Of importance I think is the fact that his response and suggestions for dealing with the food crisis have been swift and sound. The underlying message from his contribution in the budget debate was self-sufficiency. This was first proposed by Michael Manley in the 1970s, and was an excellent policy proposal. The only problem with it at that time, which I hope the current government does not make, is that instead of really addressing the problem of self- sufficiency in a big way, the implementation was to cut up the land in small portions and call farming a man with a hoe, donkey, and in some cases a hillside plot. This I believe has been one of the fundamental challenges facing Jamaica's agricultural productivity.

I agree with Tufton that cassava is a very viable solution, and we need to move with that suggestion while we still have the opportunity to. The fact is that cassava is something we have always grown and is the third largest source of carbohydrates for human food globally. This means that we have a possible foreign exchange earner on our hands also, as we can take advantage of the global food crisis with this staple. We just have to ensure that we employ proper technology and economies of scale in its production.

We have to start thinking creatively in terms of the uses of the local produce such as cassava. We should not be just thinking of cassava in the form we are used to, but how further agro-processing can be applied to it to produce more easily prepared meals, such as cassava rice, if that is possible. I am still reeling from a response I received from a few persons, when I made comparisons between the US and Jamaica. The response was "but they are a developed country and we are developing". Well, one of the reasons we remain developing is that we do not believe that we are capable of achieving what the developed countries have, and is a reason why we continue to value their opinions over our own.

Whatever we decide to do it is obvious that we will continue to feel the effects of higher global food prices for an extended period of time. The government's support programme will do something to alleviate some of the hardships from price increases, but as a country it will be difficult to do much over a long period of time. The saving grace is that although prices will rise I expect that the rate of decrease will slow.

Jamaica and Jamaicans will feel it more than countries such as Barbados and Trinidad, because our economic growth over the last 15 to 20 years has been so slow that we have not built in any cushioning. And the fact that our productivity has been decreasing means that this will further restrict the ability of companies to give wage increases that can keep pace with rising prices. This is the reason for the need to maximise growth opportunities when times are good.

In my opinion, it is going to be a long haul for the Jamaican and world economy. What we do as a country is going to determine how we make out in this global crisis. I believe that the minister of the moment is the minister of agriculture, as the focus has shifted somewhat from energy. How we treat with the suggestions made and how quickly we implement the recommendations is going to determine the extent of the global effect.

We must not make the mistake we did when we sought to politicise Manley's self-sufficiency and Seaga's Agro 21 programmes. Our failure to constructively debate and implement solutions to this crisis will only see slimmer persons in both political parties.

Trousers in Denim

Cream of the 'Crop'

Cheeky's World