Ocho Rios businessman Ramesh Sujunani has described the current tourist season as the worst in 10 years for his business, as the island experiences a downturn in the number of cruise ship arrivals to the resort town.

"We have seen a downturn in retail sales," said Sujunani, who was among a group on a panel during a Jamaica Money Market Brokers (JMMB) Corporate Solutions' 'Tourism Partnership Seminar' at the Sunset Jamaica Grande in Ocho Rios.

Sujunani, manager of Gem Palace, one of Ocho Rios' leading in-bond stores added: "This year has been full of challenges, starting since January. This is the worst season in 10 years. When we have a situation like this, goods are the first to be affected and the last to recover."

Sujunani suggested that more aggressive marketing be done to attract the more affluent tourists, and more visitors from other markets such as Canada and Europe.

"The rich and super rich don't come to the Caribbean anymore," Sujunani said.

He further stated he was a little upset Air Jamaica was in so much difficulty and urged the authorities to keep the airline flying. But some other tourism interests expressed more favourable feedback.

According to Clifton Reader, general manager at Sunset Jamaica Grande, who was also a panellist: "We are not seeing the full effect (of the sub-prime and the oil crises) but we are preparing for it."

Reader also suggested that the industry look at including more European Plan (EP) hotels in order to maximise the tourist dollar.

"If we extend the all-inclusives we will lose the multiplier effect," Reader warned. "We should be getting some 200 or 300 room EP properties so guests will go outside the property."

He argued that this would make up for some of the losses that would be experienced when occupancy levels fall, as guests would eventually end up spending more money.
Reader supported Sujunani's position on Air Jamaica.

"Air Jamaica should continue to fly, it's not just about losses, what about promotion to the island, what about the marketing? Air Jamaica brings 40 per cent of visitors to the island," he argued.

And Michael Drakulich, of Ocho Rios' newest attraction, Mystic Mountain, suggested that there could be a silver lining behind the current difficulties related to the oil crisis, arguing that Jamaica could use the opportunity to invest in solar energy.

The JMMB seminar brought into focus several key issues affecting the economies of Jamaica and the United States, while providing insight on the impact the US credit crunch would have on Jamaica's tourism industry.

With Jamaica's tourism industry getting around 70 per cent of its over three million visitors from the US, it is expected that any significant slow down of that country's economy could have a significant impact on tourist arrival figures to Jamaica.

Jermaine Burrell, JMMB's sovereign risk analyst, who gave an insight of the US sub-prime crisis, believes the strong rebound predicted to happen in the US economy would not happen.

According to Burrell: "Data indicates that it is going to be very challenging for this to happen," even as the US government makes money available to the public for spending in the hope that this in itself would lead to a recovery.

But, Burrell argued, this would lead only to a moderate rebound of the economy. He said inflation was rising at 4.7 per cent in the US and while the rate was expected to decline, it was still too high.

"Growth," Burrell said, "is not on the rebound as the authorities would like."

In all of this, Burrell argued that the structure of the tourism market is of primary concern as the majority of US visitors to Jamaica were between 18 and 49 years old, which was the employed age group and which would most be likely affected by a credit crunch.

Retirees, he further argued, would not be so bothered by a credit crunch as they would have been on pension and would be looking to enjoy their retirement.

However, the end result of any slow down in the US economy, argued Burrell, would ultimately mean a cut back on travel, which would affect Jamaica and the Caribbean.

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