Hope and despair

FINANCIAL analysts agree that 2010 will be a challenging year for Jamaicans, but while some see light at the end of the tunnel, others see nothing but 'doom and gloom'.

University of Technology (UTech) lecturer Errol Gregory expressed optimism that by signing the pending US$1.2-billion standby agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country will be in a position to put itself on a path towards economic recovery.

Gregory, one of several financial experts who were guests at yesterday's weekly Monday Exchange meeting of Observer reporters and editors at the newspaper's head office in Kingston, said that, of critical importance is that the IMF deal will open up other financing options -- such as the World Bank and Caribbean Development Bank -- and allow Government to pursue a policy of lower interest rates and reduce debt servicing costs.

"I'm still confident that we will have an agreement, and part of that confidence comes from the fact that the Government's central policy is to replace borrowing on the overseas financial market with a return to the international lending agencies," said Gregory. "I can't see the Government pursuing any strategies that would jeopardise us coming to an agreement with the IMF, so I'm looking at that as a given.

"With that secured, I think government policy of pulling rates down would this time be sustainable," Gregory added.

However, outspoken retired United Nations economist and educator Dr Davidson Daway disagreed. Daway warned that Jamaicans are "going to have a very uncertain year".

"We have to do things to bring about that change that we are looking for and at this particular time, I see very little movement in that direction, to be honest," said Daway. "What I see is people procrastinating and people not knowing what direction to turn."

Daway supported his assessment with the fact that the Government has missed several deadlines to come up with an agreement with the IMF, a deal which, he said in any case, will not have the country's best interest at heart.

"With the IMF situation, having an opportunity to see them operating before, they will bring you to your knees before allowing you what you're supposed to have," he said. "I can honestly say that the IMF is not in anybody's interest, they have their own interest and they will not change because that is the culture of the IMF."

Director of Fitz-Ritson & Associates, Karen Fitz-Ritson, said that the Government needs to do more to stimulate a sense of hope among Jamaicans.

"What we need to do is to get the message across that 'yes, there is a problem, but we are not going to fold up and die, we are not going to falter to what is happening'," she said. "We have to have that level of resilience and that whole process of education is going to be important."

Fitz-Ritson also said that she had hope for Jamaica's future as there exists a pool of talent, especially among young people.

"Where I sit, I see a lot of people thinking about action," said Fitz-Ritson. "We need to ignite and look at the possibilities instead of looking at the doom... Yes, we have to make sacrifices, but if we look at the bigger picture, if we are prepared to make the sacrifices, what would be better for us at the end of the day... Those are the sort of positive messages that I would like to see from leadership..."

Financial analyst and Observer columnist Dennis Chung said that the Government's ineffectiveness in tackling burdensome issues such as crime and bureaucracy is a hindrance to any amount of positivity.

"You have to look at what it is that prevents people from going somewhere, and the thing that prevents people from having that vision really boils down to uncertainty," said Chung. "There is no way that people will be satisfied with the crime situation as is and the impediments to doing business."

Mark Croskery, CEO of Stocks and Securities Ltd, added that bank lending rates and electricity are also prohibitive factors dampening hope.

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