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After static summer, Democratic race enters a chaotic fall

Sunday, October 13, 2019

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WASHINGTON (AP) — A Democratic presidential race that had been largely static through the summer has tumbled into a chaotic fall, shaped by unpredictable events and the deepening impeachment crisis surrounding President Donald Trump.

Less than four months before voting begins, front-running candidates are facing urgent questions about their ability to challenge Trump, prompted by a health scare for Senator Bernie Sanders, an uneven response by Joe Biden to the president's efforts to tie him to the impeachment inquiry, and nagging questions about liberal Senator Elizabeth Warren's electability. Lower-tier candidates are struggling just to be heard.

The uncertainty is heightening anxieties among Democrats desperate to defeat Trump in 2020. Although impeachment could imperil Trump's presidency, the process has also highlighted Trump's skill at discrediting his opponents, sometimes with baseless conspiracy theories. And Democrats appear no closer to sorting out what tactics, what ideology and what person is best suited to overcome that.

Progressive candidates like Sanders and Warren are surging in fund-raising and drawing support from a wide swath of voters, according to polls, but face opposition from moderates who question whether now is the time to start the kind of sweeping — and divisive — economic and societal reforms they are pushing. It's a concern some moderates say has only increased against the backdrop of impeachment.

“The divisions we have in the country threaten the health and stability of our democracy. President Trump has fractured so many norms,” former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack said in an interview. “Like a patient getting over an illness or injury, we have to first heal the nation's divisions and re-establish our norms, before we have the needed strength to successfully embrace and implement an array of big ideas.”

Vilsack, a long-time friend of Biden's, has not endorsed anyone in the 2020 race. He's been courted by, and consulted with, numerous candidates, and has spoken regularly with Warren.

The Massachusetts senator has energised voters with a menu of detailed policy proposals, a folksy, relatable way of explaining them, and a swell of small-dollar donations that brought in more than US$24.6 million in the most recent quarter. That's increasingly turning her into a target for candidates who see her calls for overhauling health care and rebalancing wealth in America as outside the mainstream.

Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, who is trying to break into the upper rung, has focused in particular on Warren's health care plan — the Sanders'-authored, “Medicare for all”, single-payer system that Buttigieg describes as a “my-way-or-the-highway approach”.

For now, Warren supporters are happy to have Sanders still in the race to help absorb those blows rather than becoming the sole target of the attacks.

The confidence Sanders' campaign felt last week after announcing a US$25.3-million haul in the third quarter — the highest in the race — was lessened after the 78-year-old senator suffered a heart attack. He told reporters this week that he planned to scale back his campaign, then said he had misspoken. He'll return to the campaign on Tuesday for a debate in Ohio.

His advisers privately acknowledge that the timing of the heart attack — which came just as the impeachment inquiry was escalating — may have helped limit the political fallout because attention was focused elsewhere. But they also understand that he will have to more directly address lingering health concerns.

Jeff Weaver, Sanders' chief strategist, dismissed any long-term concerns, noting that the 2020 contest includes several older candidates, including the 73-year-old Trump.

“There are a number of older candidates in the race, including the sitting president of the United States, and I can tell you with confidence, there's only one we can say with assurance whose arteries are completely open,” Weaver said, referencing the stent procedure designed to clear Sanders' clogged arteries.

Biden, 76, stands as the strongest obstacle to Warren and Sanders, fundamentally opposed on policy and pitching a more conciliatory approach to governing.


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