EDWARD SEAGA...30.7%

PRIME Minister P J Patterson and Opposition Leader Edward Seaga are in a statistical dead heat as to which of them Jamaicans would like to have as leader of the country after the next general elections. But Seaga's departure from the political scene would bring substantially more value to his party than would be the case if Patterson stepped down at this time.

But paradoxically, while more than half the people surveyed in a recent poll for the Observer said they would feel better about the Jamaica Labour Party if Seaga was not its boss, no other JLP leader emerged when the Stone Organistion asked who Jamaicans would prefer as prime minister.

P J PATTERSON...29.8%

However, Patterson apart, two other People's National Party politicians, the popular Tourism Minister Portia Simpson Miller, and the technocratic Security Minister Dr Peter Phillips, emerged as prime ministerial prospects.

Stone conducted this latest survey on August 17 and 18, using a sample of 1,202 persons, aged 18 and over, in 40 communities across Jamaica. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

PETER PHILLIPS...4.2%

When the pollsters asked people which political leader they would like to see become prime minister after the next general election, 30.7 per cent said Seaga -- 0.9 percentage points more than the 29.8 per cent who preferred Patterson.

These numbers represent a continued increase in personal support for the leaders of the two big parties as the general election draws closer, and in the case of Patterson, further confirmation of the closing of the gap between himself and Seaga.

ANTONNETTE HAUGHTON-CARDENAS...4.1%

For instance, in July last year, 31 per cent of voting-age Jamaicans preferred Seaga for the prime minister's job against 21 per cent for Patterson -- giving the opposition leader a 10 percentage point advantage.

The leaders' individual ratings fluctuated, but with Seaga maintaining a comfortable lead over Patterson. Indeed, until April, the PNP leader even trailed Simpson Miller as the best choice for prime minister.

HYACINTH BENNETT...0.6%

For instance, last November when Stone asked which political leader would do the best job of running the country, 23.6 per cent said Seaga, who was followed by Simpson Miller (15.4 per cent) and Patterson (12.4 per cent).

By February, Patterson's rating had edged up to 15.2 per cent, but Seaga and Simpson Miller were in a dead heat with 22.8 per cent and 22.5 per cent respectively.

PORTIA SIMPSON MILLER....13.2%

This was followed by a survey in April when Seaga's rating jumped to 31.9 per cent, still 7.5 percentage points ahead of Patterson (24.4 per cent), who, though, had by then outstripped Simpson Miller (4.8 per cent).

In this latest poll, while Seaga's rating has remained static, Patterson made a 5.4 per cent gain, but critically also, two of his deputies, Simpson Miller (13.2 per cent) and Phillips (4.2 per cent) were next in line, ahead of the United People's Party's (UPP's) Antonnette Haughton-Cardenas (4.1 per cent) and the National Democratic Movement's (NDM's) Hyacinth Bennett (0.6 per cent).

All other political leaders combined, had a support of 2.2 per cent, and 15.2 per cent of the electorate didn't have a view.

"Only Edward Seaga in the JLP is mentioned," Stone said.

But even as they appear to see no other immediate prime ministerial quality leadership in the JLP apart from Seaga, 55.5 per cent of the people told Stone that they would feel better about the Opposition party if there was a change in leadership. Only 17.7 per cent said they would feel worse about the JLP if Seaga stepped aside.

In the case of the PNP, however, 38.6 per cent of the voters would like to the see the back of Patterson, while 29.1 per cent said they would feel worse about the party.

This means a 9.5 percentage point difference between those whose views about the PNP would improve if the party did not have Patterson and those who would be turned off by his departure. In Seaga's and the JLP's case, the differential is 37.8 percentage points.

Said Stone: "If we subtract the 'don't knows' from the answers to the questions, while a significant 57 per cent would feel better about the PNP should there be a leadership change, a large 76 per cent would feel better about the JLP should a leadership change occur."

In fact, in the February survey for the Observer, Stone found that 62 per cent of the electorate believed that Seaga should step down as leader of the JLP, the same percentage as two years earlier when the pollsters tested the issue in a privately commissioned poll.

In the past, however, JLP officials have made the point that the election of its leader is an internal matter for its delegates, who have consistently returned Seaga to the post since his first election in 1974.

The only time Seaga has faced a direct challenge for the job was two years ago when former deputy leader Mike Henry mounted a weak campaign on a reform platform and was badly beaten. Seaga received 90 per cent of the votes cast.

Prior to that, in 1995, when a fall-out by the so-called Western Rebels faced the party and ex-chairman Bruce Golding left the JLP to form the NDM, Seaga called a referendum on his leadership and received over 70 per cent of the votes.

Question:

Which political leader would you like to see become prime minister at the next elections?

Answers:

Edward Seaga...........................................................30.7%

P J Patterson.............................................................29.8%

Portia Simpson Miller...............................................13.2%

Dr Peter Phillips.........................................................4.2%

Antonnette Haughton-Cardenas.................................4.1%

Hyacinth Bennett........................................................0.6%

Others.........................................................................2.2%

Don't know...............................................................15.2%

100%

Stone comment:

As we draw closer to general elections, there is still no overwhelming choice of a political leader the electorate wants to see become prime minister.

The front runner, Opposition Leader Edward Seaga at 30.7%, is only ahead of second placer, Prime Minister Patterson by 0.9% points. But the PNP has an advantage to offset the lukewarm popularity of PNP leader P J Patterson in the showings of PNP vice-presidents Portia Simpson Miller (13.2%) and the powerful and influential Security Minister Dr Peter Phillips (4.2%).

UPP leader Antonnette Haughton-Cardenas is mentioned by 4.1% of our respondents as the person they would want to see become prime minister at the next elections.

Only Edward Seaga in the JLP is mentioned.

Question:

Should the leadership of the PNP change at this time, would it make you feel better or worse about the PNP?

Question:

Should the leadership of the JLP change at this time, would it make you feel better or worse about the JLP?

Stone comment:

These important findings in the August Stone polls are indicating that should the leadership of the two main parties change at this time, the parties would show a more attractive face to the electorate. Of course, this judgment cannot be made in a vacuum because one would have to position the question of the replacement leaders beside those the electorate would like to see replaced to arrive at more complete answers to the questions.

The JLP leadership question comes to the fore most forcefully in the answers to the question and in the comparative findings with the PNP's position.

If we subtract the 'don't knows' from the answers to the questions, while a significant 57% would feel better about the PNP should there be a leadership change, a large 76% would feel better about the JLP should a leadership change occur.

This has wider implications for the relationships between the electorate and the two main political parties. Leadership change as a first resort is being called for and it is left up to the parties to decide how serious they view these findings and what action they will take in response to them.

How would PNP leadership How would JLP leadership

change make you feel? change make you feel?

I would feel better

about the party 38.6% 55.5%

I would feel worse

about the party 29.1% 17.7%

Don't know 32.3% 26.8%

Totals 100% 100%

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