BRIDGETOWN, Barbados - The Windward Island state of Dominica will hold fresh general elections on May 5, with pollsters disagreeing on the likely victor between the governing Dominica Labour Party (DLP) and the main opposition United Workers Party (UWP).

Strangely, both the Barbados-based Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) poll and that of the New York-based North American Caribbean Teachers' Association (NACTA) have predicted the same number of seats for the 21 member elected House - 12-7-2 - but picked different winners.

Prime Minister of Dominica Roosevelt Skerrit (left) and his rival Edison James are both confident of victory in the May 5 elections.

CADRES' March survey forecasts a likely 12 for DLP and seven for the UWP, with the remaining two going to Labour's coalition partner, the Freedom Party. But NACTA's February poll points the other way - 12 for UWP; seven Labour and two Freedom.

Both CADRES and NACTA have acquired a credible reputation for predicting the outcomes of elections in Caribbean Community states. What their respective polls suggest is that the coming Dominica election is too close to call at this stage. The polls also differ on the percentage of swing votes.

For their part, both Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit and UWP's leader and ex-Prime Minister Edison James are confidently speaking of an "outright victory" for their respective parties even before candidates are identified for Nomination Day on Monday, April 18.
One interesting feature of this year's election in Dominica is that for the first time it will take place on the same date as that of the United Kingdom's - Thursday, May 5.

And already the UWP's leader, James, has gone on the offensive against Prime Minister Skerrit for what he termed "copycat politics that will not work here..." Elections are normally held in Dominica on a Monday.

Quite optimistic about a second term in government, Skerrit, the former schoolteacher and education minister, became Dominica's third Prime Minister on January 2004, following the deaths of Rosie Douglas and then Pierre Charles within the first four years of the current Labour Party administration.

Both of his predecessors died from heart-related ailments and, like them, he has been governing with a coalition, made possible by Labour's once-bitter foe, the Freedom Party of former long-serving Prime Minister Dame Eugenia Charles.
At the January 2000 election, when the charismatic Rosie Douglas led the Labour Party against James' then-incumbent UWP, no party emerged with a clear majority.

With an electoral roll of just over 60,000, the incumbent UWP secured 15,555 valid votes or approximately 43.04 per cent - the single largest bloc of popular votes - but with nine of the 21 parliamentary seats at stake. Labour polled just over 42 per cent for its 10 seats, while the once-powerful Freedom Party garnered merely 4,858 votes or about 13.05 per cent.

For the coming May 5 poll, Labour and Freedom have decided to team up as a united front, but with Freedom being almost immersed in Labour's ranks.
Freedom's leader, Tourism Minister Charles Savarin, and the party's chairman, Herbert Sarbroache, are the only two recognisable Freedomites now contesting on the DLP platform, but without any merger agreement between the previous coalition partners.

Last Wednesday, while Prime Minister Skerrit was preparing for a DLP rally at Grand Bay where he made his election announcement, angry members of the party's Colighaut constituency were protesting in the capital, Roseau, against seat allocation to accommodate Freedom, a development they claimed that could cost Labour losses in marginal constituencies.

In contrast to Skerrit's optimism of a return to power for his DLP, the UWP is pursuing a strategy to exploit perceived internal divisions within the ranks of both Labour and Freedom over the electoral arrangements for May 5.

"We are aware of the results of both polls conducted between February and March, and we are quite confident of a change in government on election day," said James.

He declined to predict how many seats his party would take.
But the incumbent DLP is also confident of victory, predicting from the platforms that "it will be Labour again". With a likely four to six per cent swing either to Labour or UWP, it points to a tough campaign season ahead with the outcome seemingly too close to call.

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