Horse Racing

Going against the obvious with Sebastian the choice in 2019 - 2000 Guineas

BY OBSERVER RACING
WRITER

Friday, April 12, 2019

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THE Supreme Ventures Limited-sponsored 2000 Guineas where only colts and geldings can compete is going to be decided this Sunday (April 14, 2019) at Caymanas Park.

To be run over a mile, the 2000 Guineas brings together by far the best three-year-old male horses in training at the present time.

As such, quite a race is in the offing for racing fans.

The likes of Supreme Soul, Toona Ciliata, Father Patrick, Sebastian, Earn Your Stripes and Run Thatcher Run are all poised to deliver and may the best horse win.

The Supreme Racing Guide makes its analysis of the 14 starters in the 2000 Guineas in post-position order.

1 RUN THATCHER RUN: – (3 ch c – Fearless VisionAhwhofah) – The champion local two-year-old of last year has had shin issues which curtailed his preparation leading into the 2000 Guineas. Run Thatcher Run has raced twice this year, seven days apart, in order to get ready for his Classic assignment on Sunday. In both of his 2019 efforts, Run Thatcher Run not only displayed his known talent and class but also an advanced tendency to fight and grit it out. It is going to be very difficult for Run Thatcher Run to win this Classic event and his task is made even more difficult by being drawn in the number one starting stall. This is going to force Run Thatcher Run's jockey, Omar Walker to push out on the lead for the very start of the race. Run Thatcher Run is quality but his resolve is going to be tested to the hilt. It should be noted that GALLOPED 1:06.3 FOR 5 FURLONGS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

2 EARN YOUR STRIPES: (3 ch c – Nuclear WayneBrown Sugar) – This chestnut colt is an enigma. When Earn Your Stripes is on top of his game, he is beyond doubt a top-notch campaigner. Yet, there are times in his races, when Earn Your Stripes is not who he is supposed to be. Coming into the 2000, Earn Your Stripes, as is often the case, has been burning up the exercise track. On Monday (April 8), Earn Your Stripes was clocked at 1:13.2 for six furlongs and in the process defeated his stablemate, and early morning line favourite for the 2000, Supreme Soul. It is a well-known fact that official races are not run in the mornings, so let's wait and see. Earn Your Stripes is going to make it hot for Run Thatcher Run on the front end.

3 SEBASTIAN: (3 b c – Western Classic Sea Treaty) – Sebastian is from the Sea Treaty bloodline, which is known to produce Classic winners in Jamaica and Trinidad. If ever a horse is primed for a Classic run, it is Sebastian. The bay gelding has won over 7 1/2, and 8 furlongs and boasts a career record of two wins from four starts. His preparation follows, to a large extent, the traits of his multiply Classic winning trainer, Philip Feanny. Sebastian has no issues with the trip of a mile and is sure to be coming at them in the final two furlongs and that run could possibly be a winning run, especially if the pace is hot. Watch Sebastian very carefully, in fact, the Supreme Racing Guide is getting bold and making Sebastian the choice to win the 2019 - 2000 Guineas. GALLOPED 6 FURLONGS IN 1:16.0 (EASY) WITH CAMPESINO.

4 INSPIRED MIRACLE: (3 b c – Miracle ManLady Madras) – Even with the blinkers off and figure -8 on, an authentic miracle is required to win this one.

5 IN THE BLOOD: (3 ch c – StrikewhileitshotAppassionata) – A maiden competing against seasoned colleagues makes winning not possible.

6 BLOODSWEATANDTEARS: (3 b c – StrikewhileitshotMiss Nickels) – The figure -8 is now on and that is about it.

7 SEA CRUISE: (3 b c – American DanceRip Current) – Savaged by the filly Envisaged just days ago, Sea Cruise will suffer the same here.

8FATHER PATRICK: (3 b g – Nuclear Wayne Late Appeal) – Started his three-race career with two wins over 5 and six furlongs in which his undeniable class was revealed. Father Patrick although finishing second to Toona Cilita in the 7-furlong Prince Consort Stakes did enough to suggest that he has a live shot in this one. The one possible hurdle is the ability of Father Patrick to effectively get a mile. With natural improvement taken into consideration, Father Patrick is going to make a bold bid. He has been well prepared for this one.

9 TOONA CILIATA: (3 ch g – Soul WarriorRed Gold) – One of those reaching his prime at precisely the right time. Beaten by Father Patrick over 6 furlongs and then returned the favour over 7 furlongs, three weeks later. Toona Cilita is going to enjoy a mile plus he has been steadily prepared for the occasion and surely packs the necessary class to become a deserved Classic winner. Has grown tough and that resilience is going to come in very handy on Sunday. GALLOPED 6 FURLONGS MONDAY LAST IN A TIME OF 1:13.3 BEATING TRICKY ONE.

10SENTIENT: (3ch c – StrikewhileitshotLady Geetadeo) – Coming along quite well as evidenced by his 7-furlong victory on last (March 30). Sentient is well seasoned having raced seven times with two wins to show for his efforts. Sentient at this stage is on the right trajectory but the 2000 Guineas is two days away and needs more time.

11TRICKY ONE: (3 b c – Casual TrickThe Golden One) – Has rehearsed for this, having run eight times, winning twice and finishing second four times. As consistent as Tricky One might be, he won't be a major factor here even with champion jockey, Anthony Thomas in the saddle.

12 AWESOME AVIATOR: (3 dkb c – Casual TrickRoyal Victress) – Just starting to feel the cut and thrust of what competitive racing is all about. Awesome Aviator is going to win out his conditions but not never on a Sunday, which is 2000 Guineas day.

13DUKE: (3 gr c - Casual TrickLady Macbeth) – Finally signalled his intention to be an active part of the 2000 Guineas when winning for the second time from eight starts on March 27. Granted that win by Duke was over 5 furlongs, but there is every indication that he is coming to this Classic well wound-up to compete. Might not be fully ready to deal with the likes of Earn Your Stripes and Father Patrick who have both beaten him in the past. Duke is going to do his best.

14SUPREME SOUL: (3 ch c – Soul WarriorBeware Baby) – Beaten only once in five starts by Run Thatcher Run and that was in the Jamaica Two-Year-Old Stakes (one mile) on Boxing Day of last year. Many pundits are of the firm belief that Supreme Soul should have won that juvenile encounter. Since that defeat, Supreme Soul has prepared immaculately and meticulously for his date with destiny. Supreme Soul, a half-brother to top 'A' Class resident Bigdaddykool, has won three consecutive races ranging from 7 to 9 furlongs and 25 yards to prep him perfectly for the 2000. Supreme Soul possesses sublime talent with showing more affinity to go longer than a mile and when compared with his half-brother has more early speed thereby making a mile almost faultless at this time in his career. Supreme Soul is the obvious choice to win the 2019 – 2000 Guineas, but, who knows what will happen?


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