IN a few weeks we will see evidence of the progress being made on the US$200 million development works at Sangster International Airport as the first jet bridges will be put into operation.

Shortly thereafter other aspects of the first stage of the works will also come on stream. Naturally, the question of the future development of the Norman Manley Airport will be raised; and in the coming weeks construction activity will start at that location as a part of US$130 million development programme that was recently announced. Are these expenditures realistic in light of the continued softness of the world aviation sector?

Without doubt, the post September 11 period has been a difficult one for the sector and it will take a return of economic buoyancy, especially in the USA, to push air travel back to earlier levels. The SARS outbreak in China and south east Asia also contributed to the downturn in air travel, which at last is now receding. This is reflected in the fact that passenger movements in the Asia Pacific region declined by only 1.6% in July 2003 as against 7.2% in the January ú July period as a whole. On the other hand, Europe which is the second largest region is rapidly recovering lost ground, registering increases of 3.6% and 3.1% in passenger movements for the month of July 2003 and January ú July 2003 respectively after dropping by 4.0% and 5.4% in the corresponding periods of 2002.

As indicated above, the North American region which accounts for a significant percentage of total world passenger movements will play a decisive role in the recovery of the sector. In the month of July 2002 it experienced a decline of 8.1% and saw its year to date position fall by 9.5%. This year its July figure was 2.3% above that of July 2002 but there was no change in the year to date position. That Jamaica and some other Caribbean islands have witnessed increased stop-over visitor arrivals from the USA during 2003 is therefore a departure from the overall trend in that marketplace. Not surprisingly, other areas including Europe, North Africa and Asia have lost market share suggesting that the Caribbean area is being seen as a safe haven in a world of heightened terror alerts.

The wider Latin American and Caribbean regions have also been experiencing continued declines in passenger movements. In July 2003 it registered a 1.1% fall from the corresponding month of 2002 and the January- July 2003 figure was 1.9% below that for the same period of 2002. Since the Caribbean area has been recovering its losses, these declines must be due to the weakness of air travel in the Latin American countries. Having suffered declines of 5.0% and 6.4% in July 2002 and January ú July 2002 respectively followed by further fall in traffic in 2003, the Latin American and Caribbean regions are in its weakest state for many years. Though this is related to the fallout in the global aviation sector, it also is the case that the downturn in the major economies of the region has played a significant role. A revival of regional air travel will therefore be dependent on the pace and timing of the recovery of the economic situation in the leading countries. Of course, this itself will be influenced by what happens in the USA and in the overall global system.

The experience of the last two years stands in sharp contrast with the previous two years when the aviation sector was expanding at break neck speed. According to the available data, passenger movements increased by 5.8% in July 2000 and 6.4% for the January ú July 2000 period. In July 2001, just prior to September 11, there was a further increase of 3.0% and a 2.9% rise in the January ú July 2001 period. There was evidently a slowing down of the rate of growth particularly in the North American region which went from 3.3% and 4.7% for July 2000 and January ú July 2000 respectively to 0.7% and 0.4% for the corresponding periods of 2001. But at least the movement was still positive; then came September 11 and the declines of 8.1% and 9.5% in 2002. Hopefully the 2.3% increase in July 2003 and the much lower rate of decline of 0.2% for the January ú July period are signals of better days ahead.

The news of a rebound in GDP growth in the USA and the strong numbers for the third quarter of 2003 suggests that those better days may be on the horizon. The profit figures for major US corporations are yet another signal, that if sustained, it could boost investment activity in that economy with eventual positive effects on the employment situation. As is well known, job losses and employment growth are key indicators of future consumer spending and therefore are of central importance to the travel industry. Improvements in these respects over the coming months would provide a major fillip for Jamaica and other Caribbean tourist destinations in 2004.

Over the period of the longest ever continuous economic expansion in the USA, that occurred in the mid to late 1990s, we in Jamaica were not able to accelerate growth in visitor arrivals or expenditure. Several countries in the Spanish speaking Caribbean enjoyed rapid expansion in both aspects. The English speaking Caribbean experienced relatively modest growth in visitor arrivals, but in the case of the Bahamas they achieved solid increases in the visitor expenditures.

We ought not to miss the next period of economic boom for the investment activity and job opportunities that can be derived are needed to lift the local economy onto a strong growth path. Without such momentum, we are going to be hard-pressed to get on top of our debt problems as well as the social deficit that is so disabling.