KABUL – Simmering tensions between President Hamid Karzai and key ministers have developed into a dangerous schism ahead of Afghanistan’s presidential elections, threatening to undo the shaky coalition which held the first post-Taliban administration together for the past three years.

In a furious outburst this week, the powerful defence minister Mohammed Qasim Fahim threw down the gauntlet to Karzai, who has remained a virtual outsider in a government dominated by northern powerbrokers.

Kicking aside any pretence of support for Karzai – an ethnic Pashtun from Afghanistan’s south who is seen by critics as Washington’s man – Fahim, an ethnic Tajik from the north, declared the president would not have his backing.

“I told the president that if he plans to go to elections on his own, he would make a mistake, but he did it,” Fahim told a news conference.

The powerful warlord who runs Afghanistan’s largest private army had been tipped to be Karzai’s vice-presidential running mate, but was dropped after pressure from international allies who see the defence minister as a brake on disarming tens of thousands of irregular soldiers.

With barely hidden scorn Fahim came close to accusing Karzai of acting under foreign pressure.

It was the most public, categorical statement of opposition to Karzai to date from the commanders of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance.

“Right now there is a very fierce discussion between both sides: there are group and individual meetings,” Fahim Dashty, editor of the Kabul weekly, told AFP, describing the widening rift in Karzai’s government as a “political shock” for the struggling country.

Stepping into the ring to lead the anti-Karzai backlash is education minister Yunus Qanooni, part of a clique belonging to the Northern Alliance, the mainly ethnic Tajik movement which led resistance to Taliban rule.

Fahim and Karzai’s erstwhile foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah have both declared their backing for Qanooni, who has left the cabinet to run against Karzai and could present a formidable challenge in October’s polls.

Yet to play his significant hand is Ismael Khan, the anti-Soviet guerrilla hero, warlord and governor of the vast western province of Herat. Considered one of the most powerful men in Afghanistan, his vote could swing the balance between Karzai and the key ministers.

Despite Fahim’s fighting talk, analysts believe there is no major risk of violence between key players in the run-up to the elections.

“I don’t see a risk of violence right now,” Vikram Parekh senior analyst from the International Crisis Group, told AFP.

“The run-up to the election is a question of positioning yourself for the negotiations that will take place after the election, and the alliances in a run-off if there is going to be one.”

Grant Kippen from the Washington-based NGO National Institute for Democracy said pre-poll violence “was unlikely”.

Karzai has picked a lesser-known Tajik as his running mate: Ahmed Zia Masood, brother of the late Northern Alliance resistance hero Ahmad Shah Masood. Also on Karzai’s ticket is current vice-president and ethnic Hazara Karim Khalili, as part of a bid to present a united ethnic front.

When the final list of presidential candidates is unveiled on

Tuesday it may become clearer whether Karzai, who has largely failed to establish control outside Kabul, will face a united opposition from key players in the former Northern Alliance.

If that happens, “then there will be a real election”, Dashty said.

Parekh pointed out that the Tajik trio of Fahim, Abdullah and Qanooni are widely seen in the north as having latched on to Karzai for personal gain.

“Two of them have been supporting Karzai in recent months and now they have to convince their own former colleagues that they have formed a genuine alliance and not just an opportunistic one that will melt away after the elections,” Parekh said.

If no candidate wins more than 50 per cent of the vote, a run-off between the two main challengers will be held.