MONTEGO BAY, St James – Opposition Spokesman on Tourism Ed Bartlett said Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller was being overly optimistic in her analysis of the tourism sector’s performance, and warned that the real test would come when the Spanish Hotels snapped up their share of arrivals in the summer.

His comments came shortly came after the prime minister opened the 16th annual Jamaica Product Exchange (JAPEX) trade show on Sunday, with a promise that by next year the number of visitors to Jamaica would surpass last year’s record 1.4 million.

Said Simpson Miller: “Last year Jamaica recorded its best-ever year in tourism with over 1.4 million stop-over visitors. This was a 4.5 per cent increase over the previous year, and continues the upward trend that we have achieved for the industry over the last three years. We also achieved the best-ever figure in respect of cruise passenger arrivals, which last year increased to over 1.1 million.”

She noted that the momentum had increased during 2006, with stop-over arrivals improving by approximately 10.5 per cent for the first quarter of the year.

“These figures demonstrate the power of partnership,” Simpson Miller continued, adding that “the fact you now have a female prime minister I am sure next year this time we will be announcing an even higher level of increase to our country.”

Her words were greeted with loud applause from the crowd of tourism officials that turned up at the colourful opening at Magaritaville, Negril.

Approximately 80 delegates, representing 53 overseas tourism interests, spent two days meeting with more than 200 local tourist operators and sampling their products, with a view to doing business with them.

However, Bartlett who also attended the opening, was not a part of the cheering crowd. In fact, he suggested that not only was the prime minister’s assessment of the sector overly optimistic, but it was also flawed.

“The gross of 4.5 per cent is 3.5 per cent below what the projected growth was based on the budget last year, and this growth was not due to aggressive marketing and advertising… it was a result of the bounce of the fall-out of visitors to Cancun and other Mexican destinations,” Bartlett told the Observer.

When Hurricane Wilma slammed into Cancun, Mexico’s most important tourist resort last November, the country’s tourist industry suffered a huge setback as much of its infrastructure was destroyed.

According to Bartlett, come summer when the Spanish Hotels get back on their feet, Jamaica would face an even bigger challenge in terms of competition for visitors than the prime minister anticipated.

“The projection for a ten per cent growth this year without a significant increase in the marketing budget, bearing in mind that the Spanish properties will be back in full operation, is going to be a bigger challenge than the Prime Minister and the Minister of Tourism appreciate,” Bartlett added.