MONTEGO BAY, St James – THE United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) is projecting that international tourism will grow by between three and four per cent this year, a welcomed improvement from what has been dubbed one of the most challenging time in the industry.

International tourist arrivals for business, leisure and other purposes are said to have declined worldwide by four per cent in 2009.

Carlos Vogeler regional representative for the Americas at the UNWTO said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that global recovery this year will be significantly faster than expected.

“The IMF has just recently stated that the global recovery is occurring significantly faster than expected,” he told delegates in attendance at Jamaica’s third Tourism Outlook Seminar now underway at the Ritz Carlton Hotel in Montego Bay, St James.

According to Vogeler, with experience showing that tourism earnings generally follow the trend in arrivals, earnings for 2009 are believed to have declined by six per cent to an estimated US$886 billion.

Meanwhile Vogeler noted that between political tensions, natural disasters, economic crisis and the H1N1 pandemic this has been one of the most difficult time in the industry.

And although there is projected growth for this year, Vogeler said unemployment is expected to continue with economic growth still fragile in many source markets like the United States and Europe.

He cautioned however that despite expected growth in 2010, premature withdrawal of stimulus measures as well as the temptation to impose extra taxes on long haul travelers as is the case in the United Kingdom may further jeopardise the industry.

“Although we expect growth to return in 2010, a premature withdrawal of these stimulus measures and the temptation to impose extra taxes may jeopardise the pace of rebound in tourism,” he said.

Security threats and the potential of increased related hassle and costs for travellers, he said still remains a challenge to the industry.

He argued also that serious global polices that are supportive of tourism must be in place as the industry seek new ways of doing things to cater to a more demanding tourist.

Except for Africa, all world regions are said to have shown negative results in 2009.

The Caribbean, however, returned to growth in the last four months of 2009 but ended the year with a decline of five per cent.

By region, Asia is expected to continue showing the strongest rebound while Europe and the Americas, the UNWTO said, are likely to recover at a more moderate pace. Africa it said will continue its positive trend as they are set to benefit from the extra boost provided by the 2010 FIFA World Cup to be held in South Africa this year.

With the anticipated growth, Vogeler said business and consumer confidence has picked up, interest rate and inflation remain at historically low levels. He noted, however, that a slump is generally followed by a rebound due to pent up demand and destinations are expected to actively leverage this opportunity.

He noted also that the crisis provide an opportunity to address underlying structural weaknesses and implement strategies fostering sustainable development and the transformation to the Green Economy.

Willard Phillips, Economic Affairs officer at the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) said the most challenging problem affecting the region and in extension tourism, is public debt.

“I suspect that on per capita basis we are the most debt burden regions of the world,” he said.

Tourism packages in the Caribbean, he said continues to suffer from lack of linkages which translate in high rate of its earnings leaving the region.

He told delegates that in some destination up to 40 per cent of all earnings leave the region by way of expenditure for supporting the industry. In one particular case he said it is as high as 70 per cent.

He, however, lauded Jamaica for having done much in advancing linkages in the industry particularly through agriculture.

Meanwhile, Edmund Bartlett, tourism minister, said Jamaica’s tourism sector has managed to hold its own and even enjoy modest growth in the worst recession the world has seen in recent time.

While recognising the challenges being faced by the industry worldwide, Bartlett maintains that growth can be achieved even in a recession.

“For us here in Jamaica even though our key responders US and UK are having great challenges …Jamaica was still able to achieve at the end of 2009, 3.6 per cent increase,” he said.

In 2009 Jamaica welcomed 1,831,000 stop over visitors, the largest number in the country’s history.

At the same time, Bartlett said Jamaica still struggles to communicate effectively the impact of tourism on the economy and its overall contribution to Gross Domestic Product.

He pointed out the industry continues to be challenged by the air passenger duty imposed on tourists travelling from the UK to the region, visa requirements and increased cost to travel.