TOURIST arrivals to the Caribbean are not expected to exceed a three per cent increase in 2012 and visitor expenditure is also not expected to grow meaningfully during this year. Sean Smith, statistical specialist at the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO), said this at the State of the Industry News Conference at CTO’s headquarters in Barbados.

He noted, however, that the Caribbean tourism industry was “holding its own” remaining afloat and resilient amidst turbulence in the marketplace. He said tourist arrivals to the Caribbean region remained buoyant in 2011, continuing the recovery process which began in 2010.

Smith added, however, that the region was not yet “out of the woods” as the figures revealed uneven growth among the destinations and revenue continued to lag arrivals.

He said the Caribbean welcomed an estimated 23.8 million tourists in 2011, a 3.3 per cent rise over 2010 when just over 23 million stay-over visitors came to our shores. “With the exception of May and October, which were down marginally, the region recorded a rise on arrivals every month in 2011 over the corresponding month of the previous year.

Tourist arrivals during the winter months (January to April) were up 4.4 per cent over the previous winter, which had grown by 3.9 per cent over 2009. The summer period ending December recorded a lower than expected increase of three per cent,” he explained. The factors contribution to this performance were low consumer and business confidence and a weak United States (US) dollar.

Smith noted that the larger destinations, including Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, continued the historical trend of leading growth in the region. This subgroup, which accounts for more than half of all arrivals to the region on an annual basis, grew by 4.2 per cent.

He explained that several islands reported increases in arrivals from Europe. Barbados saw a six per cent increase, Cancun, 3.9 per cent, Curaçao 2.9 per cent and Cuba 1.1 per cent. Several other destinations recorded growth in arrivals from Europe on smaller numbers. “Still, compared to 2010, the overall figures from Europe remained flat, with the Caribbean recording a 0.6 per cent increase,” he said.

Smith noted that the United Kingdom (UK) continues to be one of the most important markets in Europe for the Caricom countries. “When we take into consideration only the countries that have reported, the Caricom countries received over 58 per cent of all arrivals from the UK in 2011,” he said.

In the hotel sector the region performed marginally better last year than it did in 2010. According to Smith Travel Research, average room occupancy was 61.8 per cent compared to 60.3 per cent in 2010, while the average room rate reached US$167.56 compared to US$163.36 in 2010. These results indicate some measure of recovery within this sub-sector.

“This, notwithstanding, indications are that the pattern of visitor spending is changing significantly throughout the region. Nervous cost-conscious tourists are using the most economical sources of goods and services available in the destinations. This switching from higher cost to lower cost suppliers has resulted in the reduction of average spending which has contributed to stagnant or ebbing foreign exchange revenue streams,” Smith said.

He noted that economies in both North America and Europe are still under considerable stress.

“Higher than usual unemployment continues to prevail in the main source markets, while monetary and fiscal systems remain under intense pressure. The US is into an election year and while some may anticipate this as a reason for US travellers to stay home, there is no hard evidence to substantiate this. The Olympic Games in England this year could also be a significant distraction from North-South travel,” he said.

Smith said it was expected that the continued addition to cruise stock internationally will have a positive effect on Caribbean schedules, if only residually.

However, high oil prices and the tendency to home-port close to densely populated catchment areas in places like the Mediterranean and other large European countries, especially in summer, will be some of the factors contributing to the dampening of Caribbean cruise business overall in 2012.

“In light of these realities, arrivals to the Caribbean are not expected to exceed a three per cent increase in 2012 and visitor expenditure is also not expected to grow meaningfully during this year. Based on preliminary schedules, cruise arrivals to the Caribbean are also not likely to rise by more than two to three per cent,” he said.

(Courtesy of Trinidad’s Newsday)