AN improvement in the current National Minimum Wage is not likely before January next year, and the increase is not expected to go beyond 10 per cent.

These projections are informed by a Jamaica Observer investigation into the submissions from stakeholders as well as the process being used to determine a level of increase to satisfy both minimum wage earners and their employers.

One of the most interesting developments in the process is the fact that the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), whose detailed research and comprehensive submission to the National Minimum Wage Advisory Commission usually guides the final outcome, is recommending a nine per cent increase.

According to the PIOJ, since January 2009, the National Minimum Wage has declined in real terms by 8.5 per cent, and a nine per cent increase this year would restore the real minimum wage to its 2009 level.

Unusually this year, there has not been much input from private security firms, who have normally opposed any increase in the minimum rates for industrial security guards on the basis that such increases lead to increased costs, expensive contracts, and loss of both jobs and contracts.

However, the little known Jamaica Security Guard Association, headed by a former guard, Wayne Hanchard, wants a five-point plan of action to address their working conditions, including working as many as 60 hours per week without overtime rates.

The Observer has learnt that the commission plans to conclude its review and make a report to the Ministry of Labour and Social Security by the end of the month. The ministry will then need time to review the recommendations and formulate a submission to be sent to Minister Derrick Kellier, whose consent is required before it is referred to the Cabinet, possibly by late November, for its approval.

But even if there is a Cabinet decision in December, the employers will have to be given at least a month’s notice to prepare themselves for the increased labour costs, which should push the project into an earliest date of late January to early February.

The commission had its final consultation with stakeholders on Thursday, September 26, at the labour ministry in Kingston and has been reviewing the outcomes since.

At that consultation, the PIOJ admitted the 8.5 per cent decline in the real wage since January 2009. However, the PIOJ projected that the Adult Equivalent Poverty Line, or the minimum acceptable level of food and non-food consumption required to keep the average adult out of poverty, based on a projected inflation rate of 10.5 per cent, is projected at approximately $158,000 for 2013.

The PIOJ said that this compares favourably with the annual minimum wage of $260,000 ($5,000 per week).

The PIOJ therefore estimated that the annual minimum wage, at the end of 2013, assuming no increase, would still surpass the Adult Equivalent Poverty Line by approximately 65 per cent.

In terms of the Reference Family, the PIOJ said that, based on the 10.5 per cent projected inflation rate, it is estimated that the financial requirements to sustain the reference family of five will outstrip their earnings by 14.3 per cent in 2013. However, it said it had to take into consideration the general economic environment, including the public sector wage freeze and the general decline in their purchasing power; employment trends showing a 20 per cent decline in the average number of private households employing minimum wage earners; and the expansion and improvements in the Programme for Advancement Through Health and Education.

It concluded that, in light of those projections, a nine per cent increase in the minimum wage would be sufficient to restore the real minimum wage to levels which prevailed in 2009.