UNITED NATIONS (CMC) — The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAAC) says preliminary estimates suggest that the economic costs of climate change will be around 2.5 per cent of the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Latin America and the Caribbean in the event the temperature rises 2.5 °C above the historical average.

For the last decade, ECLAC said it has studied the economic and social costs of climate change in Latin American and Caribbean countries, providing the statistical information needed to make decisions and offering numerous public policy recommendations.

ECLAC executive secretary Alicia Bárcena said estimates from different studies suggest that the economic costs of climate change could total between 1.5 and five per cent of the region’s annual GDP.

She, however, said these calculations were still preliminary and include a high level of uncertainty because they do not address all the potential effects or possible results of adaptation actions.

“These averages do not reflect the region’s heterogeneity either, but they do offer enough evidence to justify incorporating the medium-term effects of climate change into public decisions, for example, regarding infrastructure investments.

“Investment is the bridge between the short and medium term and these studies allow policy makers to act early,” she added.

Bárcena said while Latin America and the Caribbean have contributed less to climate change than other regions, they, nonetheless, are particularly vulnerable to its effects.

She said the region’s greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) represent nine per cent of the global total, with an annual growth rate of 0.6 per cent between 1990 and 2011, compared with 1.5 per cent worldwide.

“What characterised this region is that a significant proportion of emissions have come from changes in the use of soil, deforestation and agriculture,” she said.

Bárcena said the most pressing challenge for the region at this time is adaptation to climate change, especially in the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) of the Caribbean and Central American countries.

She noted that the annual adaptation costs for Latin America and the Caribbean have been estimated at around 0.5 per cent of the region’s annual GDP.

“Although these calculations are preliminary, they clearly reflect the trend in this phenomenon,” she said, urging the region must urgently design and implement adaptation strategies that include a long-term vision, and take into account collateral impacts.

The protection of water basins, including forest and soil preservation on high ground and periodic dredging in low areas, is one telling case, Bárcena said.

She said the vulnerability of Latin American and Caribbean countries is exacerbated by their geography, the way their population and infrastructure are distributed, their dependence on natural resources, the importance of agricultural activity, and the length of their coastal areas-both along the Pacific and the Atlantic.

“Evidence suggests that climate change impact in Latin America and the Caribbean is already relevant and will probably be greater in the future. Variations in temperature levels and precipitation patterns can already be seen.”

She said the biggest risks are concentrated in agriculture, water availability, forest conservation, loss of biodiversity, the population’s health, tourism in coastal areas, and rural poverty reduction.

Bárcena said the economic dynamism experienced by the region in the last decade has contributed to reducing poverty and improving the population’s living conditions, but she said it has also generated negative effects, such as atmospheric pollution, greater fossil fuel consumption and the resulting contribution to climate change.

“It is a fact that this region has the highest degree of urbanisation on the planet,” she said, adding that, at the same time, there is an increase in private motorisation.

“The lack of modern, safe and high-quality public transportation leads to the preeminence of private vehicles, concentrated among the people who have the highest income levels and who also benefit the most from subsidies to fossil fuels and infrastructure.”

But Bárcena said the region still has time to choose the paths towards development with equality and environmental sustainability, especially in cities.

“This is the time for the region to make crucial decisions in order to increase the supply and quality of public services, use renewable energies and shift to a lower-carbon production matrix,” she said, noting that on a global level, the current commitments on mitigating greenhouse gases are still insufficient for stabilising climate conditions.

To do that, Bárcena said the approximately seven tons of CO2 per capita that are emitted today would need to be reduced to two tons per capita by 2050.

“Only a global agreement with the participation of all countries, along with a paradigmatic technological change in production and consumption patterns, could provide a solution to this phenomenon.”

Bárcena said Latin American and Caribbean countries can be “fundamental actors in this global but asymmetrical challenge, given that very often those who have contributed the most to GHG (green house gas) emissions historically do not suffer the most intense impacts of climate change, and they normally have more resources to adapt to the new climate conditions.

“The challenge of climate change is, ultimately, to transition towards a new model of sustainable development with equality, in the framework of shared but differentiated responsibilities,” she added.