The IMF, Ja & missing targets
ONE of the most important targets of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Fund Facility agreement with the Government of Jamaica is meeting the quarterly surplus targets which demonstrate the Government’s willingness to keep the country’s debt in check.
For the March quarter, the Government fell short of this target by under $4 billion, about three per cent of the targeted $121 billion for the financial year. Richard Byles, chairman of the Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC), the independent entity that monitors the agreement between the IMF and the Government, pleaded with the IMF to show some mercy (not his words) to Jamaica in the aftermath of that result. He did not do a Hank Paulson (the treasury secretary who went almost on bended knees to the Bush Administration for intervention after the financial collapse on Wall Street in 2008), but his plea was well understood.
The chairman’s appeal was not without merit. There is no country in recent memory that has undergone the stringencies imposed by the IMF as Jamaica has. Yet, to the Government’s credit, with the people’s cooperation, the country has performed creditably in passing the quarterly tests. One need not get into a discussion as to why these stringencies were necessary. What is of greater moment is that Jamaica is being seen a poster child of what is possible for a country if it should stick tenaciously to the IMF script for fiscal reform and eventual growth.
For the March 2015 quarter, the script was smudged, but not to the degree to warrant a negative assessment by the Fund, given the Government’s sterling performance to date. The IMF has obliged, dismissing the missed target as a mere technicality; a hiccup that should not derail the programme. From a public relations standpoint, this positive assessment of the eighth test is necessary also for the IMF.
The IMF undoubtedly realises that we are operating in a very difficult environment and economics is not an exact science (although listening to some economic experts you would think it is), but one that is subject to the vagaries of human nature. Economic targets will be missed from time to time. It is for the Government to redouble its efforts to ensure that targets agreed to are met. But we are not dealing with a one-way street. Some have argued, and in my view convincingly, that the primary surplus stipulation be relaxed from 7.5 per cent. One would argue that five per cent would suffice. This would provide some breathing space for Government. The only insistence should be that this percentage gain should be dedicated solely to the productive sector and aimed at growth. The gain should not end up in some unproductive, unsustainable government dark hole. If this should be done, one has some comfort that Dr Peter Phillips, the minister of finance, possesses the requisite intellectual integrity to see that the gains are properly accounted for.
Speaking of intellectual integrity, the Government must address with some urgency the salary deductions made on behalf of government workers which have not being paid over to their stipulated agencies. This must stop. Salary deductions are not money that belong to the Government. Like General Consumption Tax (GCT) that must be paid over to inland revenue collectorates when collected, salary deductions must be paid over to the entities for which they are deducted. There is therefore a moral disconnect between the Government’s insistence on GCT being remitted to the Tax Administration of Jamaica (TAJ) and a government agency’s failure to turn over money to a mortgage company, or any other company, on whose behalf money has been withdrawn on the instructions of a worker.
These deductions are earned by the people that have worked hard for them. It is immoral that government agencies such as the South East Regional Health Authority (SERHA) should be deducting sums from people’s salaries and not paying them over to the companies and entities designated by the workers. The health minister, Dr Fenton Ferguson, in his sectoral budget presentation said these sums represent a “glitch” and will be paid over in due course. But the minister is being coy in presenting this as a glitch. It should not be allowed by any government that regards itself as self-respecting. What damages have the workers suffered as a result of this blatant and wilful decision not to turn over the sequestered funds? If a private individual or company had done this, what would have been the result?
Certainly, there must be cause for action here in the courts, and one is only surprised that such recourse has not been taken by those so abused. Yes, it is not only unethical, but downright illegal to take money from a person’s salary and not remitting it as the person has requested and then allow people to suffer reputational damage as a result. Is this not the reason that prominent lawyers have been hauled before the courts in recent times? Is fraudulent conversion of funds by government different from that of a private citizen? Such behaviour is indeed an abuse of power by those who think they can do what they are doing and get away with it.
We know that the Government is woefully short of funds, given the need to meet the IMF strictures. But there is a disconnect between its trumpeted inability to pay over people’s money when necessary, and how quickly it can find money to do other things that some would consider a waste. Finally, those of us who are interested only in seeing Jamaica prosper and are not concerned about partisan politics will congratulate the Government, and specifically Dr Phillips, for holding on to the gains under its economic reform programme. These gains must not be sacrificed on the altars of political expediency. The election silly season is now being engaged with a likely imminent local government election and a general by 2016. My prediction is that the PNP will be loathed to hold a local government election so near to a general. They will not allow themselves to be tested in this way. Any national election now will be a referendum on how they have governed the country and in many respects they have done poorly. They need to milk what remaining time they have left.
Those who are posturing for political power will have their own agendas, but the people must be very careful and discriminating in determining who speaks and acts in their best interests. They will reject charlatans and those who come with a self-promoting agenda. They must be careful that the successes that have come as a result of their sacrifice under the IMF agreement are not rolled back. The Opposition must come with a clear plan that ensures that this does not happen and convince the country how they will grow the economy. The PNP must demonstrate in clear terms their plans to really bring growth to the economy. It is not enough to just satisfy the macroeconomic variables, however important these are for promoting growth. We need to see a well-laid-out plan.
Dr Raulston Nembhard is a priest and social commentator. Comments: stead6655@aol.com