THE volume of shipping containers transiting the Panama Canal is unlikely to return to 2007 pre-crisis boom levels because of changing patterns in global trade and the prolonged malaise of the US economy which is responsible for more than two-thirds of the Canal’s traffic.

The worrying predication by chief executive officer of the Panama Canal Authority Jorge Quijano is that trade has declined, not increased, since 2007 when 3,600 ships carrying 12.6 million containers passed through the canal. However, in 2014, traffic declined to 2,891 container ships carrying 11.6 million containers.

The centre of gravity of global trade is now trans-Pacific trade with China as the dynamo. To spread the growth-propelling effects of rapidly increasing intra-Asian trade to the Atlantic side of the Americas, the Government of Panama has executed the monumental feat of enlarging the Panama Canal over nearly a decade at a cost of US$8.5 billion. In its original form, the Panama Canal was the largest man-made infrastructural project in the history of mankind. The motivation was to facilitate and capitalise on trade between the Pacific and the Atlantic, which at the time of construction was the dominant core of world trade.

So tantalising are the prospects for the growth of Pacific-Atlantic trade that the Government of Nicaragua has resurrected the idea of building a 259.4km transoceanic canal. First mooted in 1825, the project would cost $50 billion to construct.

The assumption for the construction of the original canal and its recent expansion was “if you build it they will come”. This line was made famous by the movie Fields of Dreams. The reality is that they have built or rebuilt the Panama Canal but “they have not come”, although the Canal will be able to accommodate 97 per cent of the global merchant fleet.

Every investment to install economic capacity is predicated on the expectation that there is sufficient demand in the future to fully utilise the new capacity. The expectation is based on estimates derived by projecting past and current demand. These estimates ranged from guesstimate to serious market research.

As we in Jamaica plan the expansion and modernisation of the port of Kingston and the logistics centre, let us ensure that these projects are based on the most careful projections of demand, and that prospective investors are subject to adequate due diligence (Minister Anthony Hylton take note) and that tendering, selection and procurement processes are comprehensive and transparently followed (Minister Phillip Paulwell take note too).

Save the announcements until the agreements are being signed a la Minister Omar Davies or when something has actually been accomplished a la Minister Peter Phillips.