THE political temperature in South St Andrew is rising, following speculation that Member of Parliament Dr Omar Davies may not make himself available for the next general election.

The general election is widely expected to be held next year, although political insiders have suggested that the Government could face the electorate by October of this year. Under the constitution, the Prime Minister may announce the date for a fresh general election after the administration has served five years in office, but a further three months may be added to the time for the administration to tie up loose ends.

Dr Davies, 68, a former university lecturer in economics, has not yet applied to represent the party again in the constituency — a stipulation by the party Secretariat that such a thing must be done by incumbent MPs — and the word is that he has told members of the party’s hierarchy that he would not make himself available for future elections. That information could not be corroborated by Dr Davies, nor the party Secretariat.

He has served as MP for South St Andrew unbroken since 1997, announcing his presence with a bang when he pushed aside Dennis Messias of the Jamaica Labour Party, and John Causwell of the National Democratic Movement (NDM). Davies polled 14,084 votes, Mesias 1,206 and Causwell 22. Already, managing director of the State-run bus company, the Jamaica Urban Transit Company (JUTC), Collington “Colin” Campbell, 61, a former Member of Parliament and Cabinet minister, has stuck his neck out as a possible replacement. Campbell has been touring sections of the constituency, attending social events, and lyming with influential figures in the tough inner-city enclave, dominated by Arnett Gardens, otherwise known as “Concrete Jungle” and “Jungle”.

However, Campbell has his work cut out, as influential Senator Imani Duncan Price, 38, has also shown an interest and is also making the rounds as far as announcing her presence is concerned. It is believed that Dr Davies, who has been trying to fend off health challenges in recent months, would likely support Duncan Price, who has been closely associated with the PNP machinery in the constituency for over 15 years.

Days away from giving birth to her third child, she is seen by constituents as bright, articulate, and easily communicates with the people of the area. Duncan Price would become the first woman MP for the area, if she were to be successful, since the constituency was formed in 1967.

The Harvard University graduate now serves as Chief group Strategy Officer at the JMMB Group. She is a former Miss Jamaica World, having represented Jamaica at the Miss World pageant in South Africa in 1995 and has consulted for the World Bank Group and Yale University.

Earlier this year she was selected to the Young Global Leaders of the World Economic Forum. Duncan Price is the daughter of PNP MP for Eastern Hanover Dr DK Duncan, who has also hinted that he will leave elective politics at the end of the present administration’s term, although he has not told the party so in writing.

DK Duncan has also been visiting sections of South St Andrew in recent times, as he too has maintained close contact with influential members of the constituency, having been closely associated with it while he served as MP for the adjoining East Central St Andrew (now represented by Finance Minister Dr Peter Phillips) from 1976 to 1983, and as Minister of National Mobilisation from 1976 to 1980.

Some of those eyeing the seat closely suggest that Dr Davies would be more inclined to support Duncan Price, what with his long history of friendship with the Duncan family over several decades.

During the first leadership contest that saw four aspirants — Dr Davies, Dr Phillips, Dr E Karl Blythe, and Portia Simpson Miller tussling to replace PJ Patterson as leader of the PNP and ultimately as Prime Minister in 2006, the Duncan family sided with Dr Davies, who finished third in the vote count, well behind the winner — Simpson Miller.

Campbell, who reports to Dr Davies in his capacity of Managing Director of the JUTC served as two-term MP for Eastern St Andrew from 1993 to 2002, before he was beaten in the 2002 general election by Dr St Aubyn Bartlett in a close contest. A total of 5,642 voters marked the ‘X’ for Dr Bartlett, younger brother of another longstanding MP Ed Bartlett, who had been defeated by Campbell in the 1993 election.

Campbell got 5,056 votes in 2002 and another contender Rev Merrick “Al” Miller, now embroiled in a court battle, had 326 votes representing the NDM/NJA coalition. Campbell subsequently contested the Clarendon North Central seat but lost to veteran parliamentarian Pearnel Charles in the 2011 poll, securing 4,825 votes to Charles’s healthy 6,661.

This came after Campbell’s attempt to secure the nod in the St Andrew Western constituency in 2007 ended in a loss to present MP G Anthony Hylton.

Campbell sniffed at the possibility of making himself available to contest the byelection for the Central Westmoreland seat after the death of PNP stalwart MP Roger Clarke last year, but never gained the required traction and it came down to a two-man race involving Dwayne Vaz and Michael Erskine, with the former prevailing to maintain the PNP’s healthy record of triumph in the seat.

Political interests had all along believed that the seat would have been passed on to Justice Minister Mark Golding, who is a member of the constituency hierarchy, but he has been bobbing and weaving as far as making a final decision regarding a future in elective politics is concerned.

PNP Vice President and Kingston Mayor Angella Brown Burke’s name was also mentioned as a possible candidate in South St Andrew but her name has also been associated with other constituencies, including East Rural St Andrew now held by Damion Crawford who, according to recent opinion polls, has been trailing the JLP representative and is unlikely to face the electorate; and South East St Ann, the only seat that the PNP has never lost.

The seat is represented by Youth and Culture Minister Lisa Hanna but she has been under considerable pressure to run again, due to differences with members and officials in the upper and lower echelons of the party. South St Andrew and Simpson Miller’s South West St Andrew are regarded as the safest PNP seats in Jamaica.

In the last general election, Dr Davies defeated his opponent handsomely. He gained 9,810 votes, while Messias had only 860. Incidentally, the first contested election in the seat ended in defeat for the PNP, with Vernon Arnett, after whom Arnett Gardens is named, losing to the JLP’s Eugene Parkinson, after he polled 3,522 votes, to the victor’s 4,170 in 1967.

But since that result, the PNP has won all contested challenges in the seat, starting with former Minister of Housing Anthony “Trench Town Rock” Spaulding beating Parkinson by only 102 votes in 1972. Spaulding won again in 1976 and 1980, Hartley “Bobby” Jones in 1989 and 1993, followed by Dr Davies since 1997.