The forecast for Jamaica in 2016 must involve events and trends which can be managed by man, and events which are classified by the popular, if unfortunate, insurance term “act of God”.

Within the latter category are the weather and the extreme weather events which result in natural disasters. Nobody can completely accurately predict these events, in particular the number and severity of hurricanes. Any such predictions have to be made in the context of climate change.

As more good sense prevails, climate change — which is being aggravated and accelerated by global warming driven by man-made pollution — can no longer be ignored. Last year was marked by weather anomalies all over the world. These ranged from severe prolonged droughts, unusually powerful storms/tornadoes and flooding cause by sudden intense rainfall.

These events are propelled by the long-term climate change most visible in global warming and the cyclical impact of El Nino. That Spanish-named weather feature is a current that runs along the Pacific coast of South America but produces global changes in rainfall and temperature of the ocean and on land.

El Niño is not the only operating factor. There is the Artic Oscillation which is containing very cold air in the far North, depriving the southern United States and the Northern Caribbean of its salubrious cooling effect.

It can be argued that the only good that came from the extreme weather disturbances of 2015 is that it contributed to an environment in which the international community finally mustered enough resolve to conclude the new climate change agreement during the 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Paris agreement is an important step in stabilising the climate and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.

All of this means that 2016 is predicted by climate experts and weather forecasters to be the hottest ever recorded. Jamaica will not escape the effects of the new weather pattern because we are a small part of a planet that Jamaican Nobel laureate Professor Anthony Chen warns is like a sick human being.

This highlights the need for more attention and more resources to be devoted to climate mitigation, disaster preparedness/risk reduction and to strengthen resilience to reduce and/or recover from the adverse effects of climate change. An integral aspect of preparedness is to educate the politicians, policymakers, the private sector and the public in general.

Jamaica — and we commend all those who worked hard to achieve it — was sensible enough to add climate change as part of a ministerial portfolio. This was great foresight. The minister, Mr Robert Pickersgill, will need to provide the leadership that is required to keep Jamaica at the forefront of the climate change campaign. We think he is up to it.