We commend the enterprising general manager, Mrs Marlene Street-Forrest, for envisioning and organising the Jamaica Stock Exchange’s 2016 Investments and Capital Markets Conference staged last Tuesday and Wednesday.

It was a highly successful event featuring local and foreign experts on a wide range of issues and subjects, and featuring an opening address by Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, with the keynote address given by Finance Minister Dr Peter Phillips to an audience hanging on his every word in the quest for deliberate or inadvertent hints about the budget and the IMF programme in 2016.

One of the more thought-provoking presentations was by former ambassador to the United States, Dr Richard L Bernal, who spoke on international and regional factors affecting the pattern of investment in the Caribbean. The gravamen of his remarks was that the economic centre of gravity of the Caribbean is in the process of shifting to the northern end of the region.

Dr Bernal suggested, correctly we think, that this shift will gain momentum with completion of the redevelopment of the Panama Canal, the rapid and increasing liberalisation of economic relations between the US and Cuba, and the impact on lower oil prices on Trinidad and Tobago. This new growth pole will encompass Miami, Cuba, Panama, The Bahamas, Cayman, the Dominican Republic, and could include Jamaica.

The escalating economic dynamic will not be at the expense of Barbados and the eastern Caribbean islands because they are tourism-driven, and global tourism continues to grow as the region demonstrates its ability to be attractive and competitive. The possible fallout from the substantial recent and coming increase in tourist arrivals in Cuba is not likely to seriously impact these countries.

There will have to be some fiscal consolidation in Trinidad and Tobago as the economy adjusts to lower oil and gas prices, but down-stream, energy-based industries and manufacturing should continue to hold their own.

The economic dynamic in the northern Caribbean, which he foresees, will not automatically benefit countries simply by virtue of their geographical location. While physical proximity is definitely an advantage in terms of being a part of the new economic hub, it is not enough. Dr Bernal set out a number of factors that could influence which countries benefit. They include predictable macroeconomic policy, avoiding activities that are labour-intensive or need economies of scale, and government-driven infrastructure development, productivity of human resources, and innovative entrepreneurship.

Dr Bernal warns that even if a country has all of these qualities it will face intensive competition because everybody in the region has recognised the possibilities and opportunities. In this scenario, the economic winners will be those who move sooner and faster and who stay ahead by continuous innovation and improvement in their international competitiveness.