Win or lose, the Grand Old Party faces an uncertain future
The fissures in the Republican Party a month before the United States presidential elections are ominous signs that the Grand Old Party (GOP) may lose the White House for a third consecutive term and face an uncertain future.
There is open warfare between presidential nominee Mr Donald Trump, who represents the blue collar-driven base of the party, and Mr Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House and the highest ranking elected Republican who represents the party elite.
To be sure, the relationship between the two factions has been uneasy at best coming out of the rather nasty primaries in which Mr Trump beat off 16 contenders but permanently damaged himself by caustic comments against his opponents that left festering sores.
Following the Democratic National Convention, his opposite number, Mrs Hillary Clinton, has been maintaining a close lead over Mr Trump in what was being predicted to be the tightest election in recent memory. But after the revelation that Mr Trump might not have paid federal income tax for 18 years, while staunchly refusing to release his tax returns in keeping with tradition, his poll numbers began to slip.
Last Friday, the
Washington Post released a video tape in which Mr Trump was heard bragging that he kissed women without their consent and grabbed their genital because as a celebrity he could. The tape set off a firestorm of criticism that sent many top Republicans into panic mode and fearing that their association with the party’s nominee could cost them their own seats in both the House and the Senate.
Last Sunday’s debate in which Mr Trump did better than the earlier one but still lost to Mrs Clinton, according to polls by
CNN, appeared to calm some Republicans but did not stop the exodus. Speaker Paul Ryan’s declaration that he would no longer defend Mr Trump and advised House Republicans and Senators to do their best to win their seats was the signal for all-out war.
Mr Trump lashed out at “disloyal” Republicans in a
Twitter rant yesterday, described Mr Ryan as a “weak and ineffective leader” and declared himself no longer shackled by party strictures.
Many Republicans have also turned up their noses at the candidate for bringing up unproven sexual abuse allegations against former President Bill Clinton in Sunday’s debate watched by an estimated 60 million viewers.
Political analysts are suggesting that whether Mr Trump wins or loses the election, the Republican Party will enter a period of blood-letting. That appears inevitable. The Trump wing and the Ryan wing will find it difficult to co-exist after the acrimony unleashed by the campaign.
A Trump victory, if he decides to be magnanimous and not seek recrimination, is probably the best outcome for the Republican Party. That, however, seems unlikely at this stage, with the latest average of polls showing Mrs Clinton ahead by 6.5 points nationally. An
NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, the first since the tape surfaced, gave the Democratic nominee an almost unassailable 14-point lead.
The Grand Old Party is in for some turbulent times.