The phrase “This time is different” has destroyed many reputations in business and finance, never mind other fields. Nevertheless, the beginning of the written presentation of the third-quarter Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC) Business and Consumer confidence survey asks “Is this a new economic era for Jamaica” and particularly “Is this time different?”.

It is prepared by the same US Professor Richard Curtin who produces the internationally famous US Consumer Confidence Survey for Reuters.

This time does in fact appear different. For the first three quarters of 2016, as the presentation notes, both Jamaica’s business and consumer confidence are at their highest levels since the inception of the survey 15 years ago in 2001.

Unlike previous post-election surges, particularly in consumer confidence, these increases currently appear sustainable in that they appear to reflect real changes in economic conditions. Not only are external institutions such as the IMF confirming that we have a much stronger macroeconomic situation than at any point in the last 15 years, but – unusually – both businesses and consumers appear to be in complete agreement that there has been a sustainable improvement in domestic economic conditions.

In short, both consumers and particularly more cautious businesses appear to agree that Jamaica is no longer on a knife’s edge of fiscal, debt or exchange rate instability, which in the past has meant that we have always been pulling ourselves back from going over the cliff.

Businesses, facing the best financing conditions in generations, finally appear willing to increase their investment spending (they need to emphasise digitisation to improve productivity, according to a recent McKinsey Institute study at the excellent Institute of Chartered Accountants seminar last week), and project record financial prospects as a result of improving finances and profit expectations.

Consumers also still project both improvements in job growth and particularly income prospects, rather than the normal pattern of becoming more negative one or two quarters after an election, effectively reversing the post-election rise in expectations. This should ultimately lead to improved spending, and a potential economic virtuous circle.

Unlike 2007, when the Jamaican economy was already extremely poorly positioned even before the hammer blow of the global economic crisis in 2008, the main risks to a true economic recovery now appear to be external, meaning a hurricane, a world trade decline or some other external shock such as a rise in oil prices.

Of course, there are still severe internal weaknesses – crime, bureaucracy, etc – that could slow the rising domestic economic momentum, and without continued improvements in these key areas the five per cent target for GDP growth set by the economic growth council for 2020 is by no means yet assured.

Nevertheless, Jamaica has the best chance in generations to make this time different.

This view is supported by other informed foreign observers. In an October 3rd article for the

World Politics Review, “Why IMF Driven Economic Reforms Paid Off for Jamaica This Time”, the prolific US-based Professor Robert Looney argues that Jamaica is “transitioning into a pattern of solid growth, with deeper reforms rather than foreign aid having been the key to assuring sustainable growth”.

He notes that although some positive signs were appearing by early 2014 (I quoted from his article

Is Jamaica poised for a turnaround in myJamaica Observer article with the same title on March 9th, 2014), “Jamaica’s recent success was largely unanticipated. The country’s growth had been subpar and declining for decades: From 1967 to 1999, growth averaged a paltry 0.82 per cent, falling off to 0.33 per cent on average since 2000.”

Looney notes that the underlying causes of Jamaica’s economic malaise were wide-ranging. These included, he adds, according to the country’s business community, “the introduction of socialist policies in the 1970s”, and the two dominant political parties, the PNP and the JLP, blaming “the short-sightedness and incompetence of the other”.

Looney notes further: “Until quite recently, everyone was quite comfortable blaming the International Monetary Fund. Jamaica has attempted to stabilise its economy and restart growth by undertaking more than a dozen IMF programmes since the 1970s; each one has ended in failure after seemingly making the country’s dire economic situation even worse.”

He adds that it was easy to see why eyebrows were raised when, in May 2013, the country agreed to a 48-month, $932 million “extended agreement” with the IMF, which imposed harsh austerity measures. When I was quoted by the

Financial Times in their April 8th, 2013 article as saying “it could be different this time around”, their clear scepticism appeared to be shared by most international and even many local observers.

At first glance, there appeared little difference between this IMF programme and “the failures of the past”. Looney observes that “Jamaica entered previous programmes grudgingly and out of desperation for funds to maintain essential imports and service debt. Stagnant growth created a zero-sum atmosphere, with each domestic constituency trying to protect its interests. Lack of transparency on the part of both the government and the IMF created an atmosphere of mistrust.”

By contrast, he argues, Jamaica has taken more ownership of the current programme. “It created an Economic Programme Oversight Committee, or EPOC, made up of representatives from diverse groups, such as the private sector, civil society and government workers. EPOC is designed to devise a plan for joint burden-sharing, monitor the programme for compliance, and maintain transparency. Now, each interest group in Jamaica can see the sacrifices made by others – and how its contribution to the programme aids in its overall success.”

Cooperation has enabled Jamaica to get through the hard initial years of IMF reform, where austerity only produces improvements in macroeconomic indicators, but not gains in employment or standards of living.

Looney argues that now that there is macroeconomic stability, economic growth is returning. Professor Curtin also points out in his JCC presentation that “the remarkable second quarter rebound to 1.6 per cent was higher than the growth rates amongst its main trading partners (US, UK, and Canada) as well as the vast majority of all other countries”.

The other key number emphasised in yesterday’s EPOC press briefing by Richard Byles was the continued expansion of credit to the private sector, the fuel for economic growth, up 14.3 per cent (12.6 per cent in real terms) for the 12-month period ended August 2016, with Jamaica on track to pass both key quantitative targets for the September quarter – the primary surplus and net international reserves – with ease.

In short, currently at least, this time is different.