PORT OF SPAIN, Trinidad (CMC) – The Trinidad and Tobago government said yesterday that the country’s economy has turned around but urged continued discipline and production in order for the oil-rich twin island republic to experience growth and recovery in 2018.

Finance Minister Colm Imbert, presenting the mid-year review to Parliament, told legislators that “we are moving into an era of macro-economic stability which is now underpinning our recovery.

“We are very much aware that the continuing consolidation of our fiscal finances is an essential condition for achieving this objective. Our tax and expenditure adjustments and broad-based reforms are contributing towards the establishment of this foundation”.

Imbert said that over the medium term, the Keith Rowley administration is improving tax administrations and budget procedures and is seeking with the assistance of the World Bank “to eliminate waste and duplication in large areas of expenditure, such as education, health, national security and social programmes.

“We recognise that this process is of a long-term nature and is painstaking but it is essential for growth to be placed on a self-sustaining and long-term basis. As a Government, we would always ensure that the benefits from our economic development are shared equitably among the members of our national community.

“We are not out of the woods yet, but after the sacrifices and prudent fiscal management of the last two-and-a-half years, our economy is turning around. In particular, our core revenues from taxation are still fragile and still below TT$40 billion (One TT dollar=US$0.16 cents), while we are running a TT$50 billion economy, but we are finally experiencing growth and recovery in 2018.

“I am convinced that, as long as we as a people are disciplined and productive, our country will recover, grow and prosper. And from all indicators, we are on the road to economic revival”, Imbert said.

“Early estimates are indicative of a growth forecast of two per cent in 2018 and 2.2 per cent in 2019, rising to 2.5 per cent in 2020. And contrary to the negative commentary of uniformed spokespersons, who speak without having any facts, the turnaround is being driven by economic expansion in both the energy and non-energy sectors,” he added.

He told legislators that within the energy sector, the full impact of the Trinidad Region Onshore Compression (TROC) project, which came on stream in April 2017, and the Juniper Platform that became operational in August last year, were now materialising and that, beginning in the fourth quarter of this year, a number of new gas fields would begin production which would boost gas production levels over the medium term.

Imbert said that with average gas production at significantly higher levels, up 20 per cent from the 2016 levels, the local energy sector has been revitalised.

He said the pick-up in the energy sector is having a knock-on effect on growth in the non-energy sector where that sector is projected to break even in 2018, after years of decline, with growth estimates for the non-oil sector in 2019 of 1.2 per cent rising to 2.9 per cent in 2020.

“Further, because of the better-than-expected increases in natural gas production in the second half of 2017, the GDP (gross domestic product) figures for 2017 are being revised upwards and we expect that instead of negative growth of minus 2.6 per cent in 2017, the actual growth figure will be closer to minus one per cent,” he noted.

He said this improved outturn for 2017 and the expected growth in 2018 will have a substantial effect on the country’s nominal GDP, which is expected to increase by nine per cent to TT$168 billion in 2018, adding this will also have a direct positive effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is now estimated to drop to well below 60 per cent, even with the planned borrowing programme in 2018.