Anyone who sees beauty and does not look at it will soon be poor. — Yoruba proverb

I do not believe incessant complaining, pie-in-the-sky promises, fake news, misguided bluster, empty chat, political deflection, ‘bad mind’, threats of street demonstrations, political schizophrenia, 1984 Orwellian-type strategies, and/or attempts at filibuster will help the People’s National Party (PNP) in its bid to return to Jamaica House.

Earlier this year, I said, among other things: “There is a new and more discerning type of voter who is no longer concerned with who planted the tree. That is immaterial to them. They just want to know the tree is there. Their focus is who can maintain the shade and fertilise the tree to continually bear edible and ‘pickable’ fruit. This group of pragmatic voters is expanding fast.” ( Jamaica Observer, March 18, 2018)

The PNP has been in Opposition for just about two and a half years. Sixty-eight-year-old Dr Peter Phillips was confirmed as president of Norman Manley’s party and leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition in March and April of 2017, respectively. If Phillips has a Midas political touch, as his handlers claim, it must be a bigger secret than the Manhattan Project. Certainly his attempts to get elected to the highest post in the PNP ended “not with a bang but a whimper”. ( The Hollow Men by T S Eliot)

Recall that he contested for the post of PNP president on two previous occasions. The first was in 2006 when he was among four candidates who sought to replace the retiring P J Patterson. Along with the other two he was defeated by Portia Simpson Miller. In 2008, Phillips again challenged Simpson Miller for the presidency and was again defeated.

The birds are tweeting that there is an increasing hubbub inside the PNP for Dr Phillips to face the fire of delegates in an election. The birds also tweet that some top-ranking PNP members are raising concern about the absence of a ‘Peter Phillips Effect’ to rival the powerful ‘Andrew Holness Effect’. The ‘Mr Fix-It’ moniker has not materialised into a brand, the birds are singing. The birds, those reliable Black-Bellied Plovers, Banana Quits and John Chewits warble that some in the inner circles of the party are also raising concerns that certain long-standing traditions of Norman Manley’s party are being whittled away. Stay tuned, is the word from the birds.

I was not looking for a challenge for the presidency of the PNP at the upcoming conference. Recall many weeks ago I wrote among other things: “The birds also tweet that there are loud whispers in the upper echelons of the PNP for younger leadership at the helm of Norman Manley’s party. The birds sing that September 2019 will be a September to remember for Dr Phillips.” ( Jamaica Observer, March 25, 2018)

The birds sing that there is also increasing disquiet in the inner sanctum of the PNP, that after more than a year as party president and Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, Phillips has not gained significant political traction on the ground, especially among the youth. Many higher-ups in the PNP, the birds sing, are whispering that Phillips has not created and or inspired the creation of attractive platform to excite voters beyond the party’s core. It is easy to see the reasons for such biting concerns. The 80th annual conference of Norman Manley’s party is scheduled for just about three weeks from today. To date the country has not got any plan of action from the PNP on how it would do a better job than the Andrew Holness-led Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Administration.

The Holness Administration has been putting important runs on the board. Runs on the board, as they say in cricket, is runs on the board. More people are employed today than any other time since political independence. In May of this year, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) told us, among other things: “Jamaica’s unemployment rate continued its downward trend to record 3.1 percentage points, lower than the rate recorded in January 2017.”

“Data provided by STATIN for the month of January 2018 showed that Jamaica’s unemployment rate was 9.6 per cent, the lowest unemployment rate recorded since October 2007.

“The number of Jamaicans employed increased by 22,600 people relative to January 2017. However, there was a decline in the labour force by 21,200 people to 1,335,100.” ( Jamaica Observer, May 23, 2018)

The latest police statistics show the crime figures heading the right direction, that is down. These numbers tell the story:

• 65.5 per cent decline in murders in St James;

• 60 per cent decline in Kingston Central;

• 47 per cent decline in Manchester;

• 9.5 per cent decline in St Catherine North.

The most recent Jamaica Constabulary Force statistics also show that, compared to last year, murders this year have declined by 13 per cent and all violent crimes combined are down by 15 per cent. Murders last month decreased by 50 per cent compared to June last year. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure that when there are improvements in law and order, people feel safer, this inspires greater productivity and investments.

Our economy continues to recover at a steady pace, as evidenced in the latest numbers from STATIN: “[The] Jamaican economy grew by 1.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 when compared to the similar quarter of 2017. This was as a result of improved performance in both the goods producing (2.8 per cent) and the services (0.9 per cent) industries. Higher levels of output were recorded for all goods producing industries: agriculture, forestry and fishing (0.6 per cent), mining and quarrying (25.9 per cent), manufacturing (0.8 per cent,) and construction (1.1 per cent).

Growth in the mining and quarrying industry was due mainly to the resumption of production at the Jiuquan Iron and Steel Company (JISCO) Alpart refinery in the last quarter of 2017 and increased demand from overseas markets for crude bauxite.

The manufacturing industry’s performance was influenced by a 4.0 per cent increase in other manufacturing. This was due largely to higher output levels in petroleum refining, non-metallic mineral products and chemicals and chemical products. The construction industry’s performance reflected increased activities in the building construction and civil engineering groups.

All eight services industries recorded growth: electricity and water (1.0 per cent); wholesale and retail trade, repairs, installation of machinery and equipment (0.5 per cent); hotels and restaurants (1.9 per cent); transport, storage and communication (1.4 per cent); finance and insurance services (1.2 per cent); real estate, renting and business activities (0.8 per cent); the producers of government services (0.1 per cent); and other services (1.3 per cent). The increase in visitor arrivals positively impacted both the hotels and restaurants and other services industries.” (STATIN, July 6, 2018)

Last week the country got the good news that Moody’s international rating agency shifted its outlook on our country from stable to positive. A news story in this newspaper said, inter alia: “The international ratings agency said the key drivers for the improvement were ongoing fiscal consolidation which, if sustained, supports continued reduction in government debt burden, as well as an improving institutional capacity and policy effectiveness.

“The affirmation of the B3 rating captures the authorities’ commitment to continued fiscal consolidation, implementation of structural reforms, progress in lowering government debt ratios, and reduced external vulnerabilities,” Moody’s said, noting, “These credit strengths are set against the very high government debt ratios, large interest burden, and low GDP [gross domestic product] growth rates.”

Given its rationale on the improved outlook, Moody’s said it believes the “Government is likely to run sizeable primary surpluses of some 7.0 per cent of GDP and to report a broadly balanced fiscal accounts.”

It added that it sees government debt falling to around 100 per cent of GDP by FY 2018/19, down from 105 per cent in FY 2017/18, and anticipates further declines in subsequent years. “The Jamaican authorities have shown a strong commitment to fiscal consolidation,” Moody’s stated, noting that spending on wages and interest declined to 59 per cent of government revenue in FY 2017/18, down from 80 per cent in FY 2012/13. Moody’s noted that the Jamaican Government had broadened the tax base, increasing tax revenue collection to 26 per cent of GDP in FY2017/18, up from 24 per cent in FY 2012/13. “Tax reforms included a shift from direct to indirect taxation. Furthermore, the Government was able to more than offset revenue losses derived from a higher exemption threshold for households by increasing a range of indirect taxes.” ( Jamaica Observer, July 24, 2018)

Those who believe social media savvy, wise cracks, curried goat and white rum [or today’s equivalent], bribes, loud music, as well as assorted political trinkets and gimmickry, alone or combined, will be sufficient to win the next general election will discover, as rural folks say, “how water walk guh a pumpkin belly”. They will get a rude political awakening.

Dennis Brown, the crown prince of reggae, has a beautiful song entitled Hold On To What You’ve Got. As happened on February 25, 2016, the party which does so most successfully, plus gain from its opponents will be victorious.

Recall I wrote, among other things, some weeks ago: “The Portia Simpson Miller Administration was booted from office after four long years of inhumane austerity, phenomenal ineptitude, rampant corruption, and mounting crime and violence. The JLP won a ‘landslide’ victory. Any first-year student of local politics knows that between 1989-2007 the PNP increased its garrisons from eight to 15. The JLP has five garrisons. The JLP went into the February 25, 2016 national plebiscite with 21 seats and the PNP with 42. The JLP did not lose any and simultaneously gained 11 of the PNP’s. It is not rocket science!” ( Jamaica Observer, June 17, 2018)

Reversing the success

The marginal seats are kings and queens. I believe the majority of voters in marginal seats are interested in far more than trinkets of traditional immediate gratification. I believe they are motivated by medium- and long-term qualitative and quantitative benefits like the “1.5 income tax relief”. The PNP was brutishly against the implementation of this income tax relief. Some 400,000 Jamaicans are benefiting. Would the PNP take away this benefit were they to form Government again?

The PNP was blindly against the abolition of obligatory fees at the secondary level. The vast majority of schools were getting a mere 30 per cent compliance as regard the payment of auxiliary fees when the cost-sharing programme existed. Large numbers of parents simply just could not pay. Today the schools are better funded. Will the PNP, reintroduce cost-sharing at the secondary level were it to form the Government again?

The no-user-fee health policy implemented during the Bruce Golding Administration is a win-win for the Jamaican economy says the Inter-American Development Bank: “The government’s no-user-fee policy in health care has contributed US$26.6 million (in purchasing power parity terms) worth of net real production to the Jamaican economy while adding 2.15 additional weekly hours to the labour market, according to a recent publication by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

“The publication, entitled Universal Public Health Insurance Adult Status and Labour Supply in Jamaica, revealed that the policy, which was passed in 2008 by then Prime Minister Bruce Golding, increased aggregate labour supply by 53.2 million hours each year between 2008 and 2012.

“The policy, which underwent much criticism both during and after its implementation, has had a positive effect on the overall health of Jamaicans as there was an 18.2 per cent reduction in the likelihood of people suffering any illness, the study said, whilst a significant reduction equivalent to 0.17 days (34 per cent) was reported for people who were unable to carry out normal activities due to illnesses.

“This, the report suggests, has benefited uninsured individuals by helping them to have faster recovery from illnesses, and also to supply more labour which creates more production for the economy.” ( Jamaica Observer, July 26, 2017)

The PNP did not support the no-user-fee health policy. Would the PNP abandon it were they to form the Government again?

The PNP says it has a plan for a better Jamaica for all, Jamaicans. Where is it?

Jamaica’s best days are ahead. I am betting on Jamaica, full stop!

Common sense, isn’t. — Will Spencer

Garfield Higgins is an educator; journalist; and advisor to the minister of education, youth and information. Send comments to the Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.