The much-anticipated presidential election for the People’s National Party (PNP) is entering the home straight and with a lot of enthusiasm. The delegates will elect a leader on September 7, 2019. It’s a mere three weeks away, and both Peters (Bunting and Phillips) are criss-crossing the island with two different messages characterised by their campaigns slogans: One PNP and Rise United.

Based on the most recent Don Anderson poll — who has earned a reputation for accurately predicting election outcomes — Peter Bunting seems to be the most equipped of the Peters to lead the PNP at this time, and for many reasons. Anderson’s poll found 36 per cent of the respondents giving Peter Bunting a better chance of defeating Prime Minister Andrew Holness in a national election. Contrastingly, only 16 per cent of respondents believed Dr Peter Phillips can defeat Holness.

The Bill Johnson-commissioned poll, released a week after, is an attempt to confuse the delegates and mislead the public based on his findings. According to Johnson, when people were asked for whom they would vote in a general election – 34 per cent said the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and 32 per cent said a Peter Phillips-led PNP.

Johnson further articulates that 32 per cent of his respondents would vote for the JLP in an election if Peter Bunting was to lead the PNP, while only 27 per cent said they would vote for the PNP. Both polls have revealed that there is an upswing in support for the PNP since Bunting’s challenge.

Lest we forget, the One PNP campaign Chairman K D Knight, in July 2006, stated: “If the person is popular and cannot hold the party together, the party is going to lose.”

The statistical findings of the Bill Johnson poll did not take into consideration the PNP’s relevance under Phillips’s leadership since 2017, and whether the party is better off with him as president. The PNP, under Phillips’s watch, having lost two by-elections — including a safe seat it has held for the last 30 years — has certainly shattered the hopes and dreams of the supporters who want their party to return to power.

The Don Anderson-commissioned poll, in March 2019, showed that the PNP was trailing the JLP by 11 percentage points and would likely lose a general election if it is called. That was before Bunting made his declaration to challenge for leadership. It is abundantly clear that the Rise United campaign is gathering momentum with a mass moment and has galvanised support from among the under 40s and the party base. This is indicative of the kind of leader a Government-in-waiting should have. The youth are banking and building with Peter Bunting.

As it stands, the PNP is likely to lose the next general election should the incumbent Dr Phillips be returned as party president by a landslide. The Jamaican electorate will not support a candidate who is unable to win. It is sadly the case that, under Dr Phillips, the PNP has lost tremendous political relevance and favorability.

What can anyone recall to demonstrate the relevance or favorability of the PNP since 2017 and after losing the two by-elections? Since the challenge, there has an uprising support for the PNP. The PNP seems once again to be an all-island movement among the base of the party, among party stalwarts and among the youth. It seems full of vigour, life and electoral possibilities. It is therefore imperative for the delegates to understand that long service and experience alone cannot guarantee a general election victory.

The delegates must focus on the candidate who has the better chance of winning the next general election based on credible national polls. The delegates must focus on the candidate who has the organisational groundwork-ability, able to secure funding, adaptability to new media platforms, and has national favorability among the electorate.

The delegates must recount the PNP before Peter Bunting’s announced bid and ask themselves: Is the party’s base energised? Is the party honest about the two by-elections defeat? Who is better able to defeat the JLP? Which candidate is currently rising and uniting the party? They must choose facts over fiction, evidence instead of sentiment; choose a winning track record over predisposition to losing. Choose a scientific poll over political cynicism.

A travesty it may be if the delegates of the PNP do not consider that a day in politics is a lot of time, and like-ability, win-ability, newness, organisational strategic skills, and proven performance are what matter.

Importantly, the national opinion of Comrade Peter Bunting should be the main factor in deciding between the two Peters.

Rayon J Walters is a student of public policy.