Even the clever one is advised. — Kikuyu proverb, Kenya

Luke 3:9 says, “The axe is already at the root of the trees, and every tree that does not produce good fruit will be cut down and thrown into the fire.” This scripture passage is immediately talking about repentance of sins to avoid the wrath of God. I believe this verse also has applicability in many other spheres, including local representational politics.

As I noted some weeks ago, among other things, only political ostriches are yet to recognise that a general election is nigh.

I also noted: “I believe our 18th parliamentary election will be held in April 2020. I believe if the elections were held today the People’s National Party (PNP) would lose nine of the seats they now have, and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) three. Politically, I believe, Dr Peter Phillips has been ‘weighed on the scales and found wanting’ (Daniel 5:27). The writing has been on the wall for just under three years.” ( Jamaica Observer, November 3, 2019)

“Who are the nine PNP, Members of Parliament [MPs]?”

“Who are the three JLP, MPs?”

I have received many messages with these questions and numerous variations of them. For those who are obsessed with turf, I repeat what I said in my article on November 3, 2019: “I am careful not to trespass, so I declare that I am not a pollster.” Recall also that, op cit, I made reference to road trips into 10 parishes. Since then I have visited parts of Hanover and St Catherine. I believe if a general election were held today the PNP would lose the following seats:

1. Derrick Kellier – St James Southern

2. Colin Fagan – St Catherine South Eastern

3. Horace Dalley – Clarendon Northern

4. Dr Fenton Ferguson – St Thomas Eastern

5. Dr Dayton Campbell – St Ann North Western

6. Robert Pickersgill – St Catherine North Western

7. Richard Azan – Clarendon North Western

8. Noel Arscott – Clarendon South Western

9. Victor Wright – Trelawny Northern

I believe the JLP would lose the following seats:

1. Frank Witter – St Elizabeth South Eastern

2. J C Hutchinson – St Elizabeth North Western

3. Rudyard Spencer – Clarendon South Eastern

I know some will immediately say that there is no way this or that MP can possibly lose. But they should check the foundations of their confidence. A little less than four years ago the PNP said its election foundations were as strong as the Rock of Gibraltar.

After I had completed my road trips then I wrote this: “Whether the People’s National Party (PNP) president and the country’s prime minister calls the general and/or local government election in November, as some pundits predict and sections of the private sector are demanding; February 2016, as my sources insist; any time on or before December 29, 2016; or enter into a realm that no other political party has gone before — those additional three months allowed by the Jamaican Constitution — I sense that the PNP is headed for a crushing defeat similar to October 30, 1980.” ( Jamaica Observer, October 25, 2015)

The JLP starts at a decided disadvantage in a general election contest with the PNP. Why? Between 1989-2007 the PNP increased its garrisons from eight to 15. The JLP has five garrisons. Prior to the February 25, 2016 national poll the JLP had 21 seats and the PNP 42. The JLP sent 11 PNP MPs packing and simultaneously retained all of its 21 seats. It’s not rocket science!

Some politicians still believe that voters in general, and specifically in certain constituencies, are mere iron filings and they are giant magnets. Here is a recent example of that kind of egotism on steroids.

TV reporter: If the PNP should lose that seat.

Dr Peter Phillips: There is no if; it is a PNP seat.

TV reporter: But if the PNP should lose that seat.

Dr Peter Phillips: There is no if, there is no if, there is no if; it is a PNP seat.

TV reporter: So, you are saying, regardless of what the JLP does…

Dr Peter Phillips: We are going to win the seat.

Phillips spewed so much entitlement about the Portand Eastern seat he did not even allow the interviewer to finish asking his questions. Politicians who foolishly still believe they own the will of the voter would do well to surrender hubris.

I have been warning in this space for a very long time that we now have a critical mass of more discerning voters in town. I remember in the run-up to the by-election in St Mary South Eastern, I heard in abundance refrains like, “South East St Mary is PNP country.” Recall, general secretary of the PNP Julian Robinson said St Mary South Eastern was “PNP territory”. ( Jamaica Observer, September 17, 2017)

On October 8, 2017 I said, “Dr Norman Dunn will win the by-election in St Mary South Eastern.” ( Jamaica Observer, October 8, 2017)

On October 22, 2017 I wrote: “The by-election in St Mary South Eastern is eight days from today. Two weeks ago I predicted a win for the Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) Dr Norman Dunn. Then, I based my prediction on poll findings of a credible pollster as told to me. I did not indicate what size of a win. Given information which I gathered last Saturday, and on National Heroes’ Day, in the constituency, and findings from credible polls which a very kind soul put under my door, plus a well-oiled JLP machine that has covered St Mary South Eastern from end to end, I can now say Dr Dunn will cross the finish line very comfortably ahead of the People’s National Party’s (PNP) Dr Shane Alexis.” ( Jamaica Observer, October 22, 2017)

Dr Dunn trounced his opponent by over 900 votes. It did not require the political equivalent of an Albert Einstein to figure that a tremendous wind of change was blowing in St Mary South Eastern. Informal chats with bar operators, street entrepreneurs, housewives, taxi operators, farmers, and numerous young people in particular, said it all.

My three visits to Portland Eastern to find out how folks intended to vote was a ringside seat to the significant shifts in political tectonic plates. On March 31, 2019 I said in this space: “Given information which I gathered on three visits to Portland Eastern and the findings of the Jamaica Observer/Bill Johnson polls, plus a well-oiled JLP machine that has engaged Portland Eastern from end to end, I am predicting that the JLP will overturn the sizeable winning margin which Dr Lynvale Bloomfield registered in 2016. I am calling the by-election in Portland Eastern for the JLP’s Ann-Marie Vaz. She will cross the finish line before Senator Damion Crawford, and she won’t be spent from the sprint.”

A PNP friend of mine said to me, “The PNP will not lose East Portland; not in 100 years.”

One of my readers sent me this terse message: “2,226, JLP, cyah cross it.”

The late Dr Lynvale Bloomfield had won the seat in the February 25, 2016 General Election by 2,276 votes.

My prediction that the PNP would lose the by- election in Portland Eastern was described as sacrilegious by some on social media.

Some pundits and polling experts, too cowardly to ‘call it’ because they were left with egg all over their faces owing to their wayward predictions in February 2016, hedged their bets and/or spoke out of both sides of their mouths. I started to wonder how scientific some of their so-called scientific polls were.

Recall the splash across the front page of the Old Lady of North Street 18 days before the February 25, 2016 General Election which predicted a landslide victory for then Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and the PNP?

Some of the pundits also reminded me of something Lyndon Baines Johnson (LBJ), the 36th president of the United States of America, said to a member of his Cabinet after he could not get a clear position from him on the Vietnam War. LBJ said, “You remind me of a schoolteacher in Texas who told me he could teach evolution or creation with equal conviction because his personal belief wasn’t important.”

My methodology — if you can call it that — is unorthodox.

In summary, I use the mechanism of road trips; I informally chat with folks in their natural states, in marginal and non-garrison seats.

Studies have shown that voters often make up their minds about who they will or will not vote for long before election day. Some of our MPs who have treated their constituents like the proverbial bastard child during recent election cycles and are planning to woo said constituents in the period just prior to the 2020 General Election will get a rude awakening. The philosophical gems in Black Uhuru’s classic song Plastic Smile speak directly to their brand of deception.

Former Prime Minister of Australia John Howard (1996 to 2007) famously warned, “You can’t fatten the pig on market day.” During my road trips to 12 of 14 parishes [Kingston and St Andrew not included] between mid-March 2019 and early December 2019, folks revealed, among other things, six primary reasons they intended to ‘vote out’ the nine PNP and three JLP MPs named earlier:

1. MP does little or no work in the constituency;

2. MP has ignored many party workers/supporters and financial backers;

3. MP has broken too many election promises;

4. Caretaker/constituency chairman worse than retiring MP;

5. MP went MIA shortly after the election; and

6. MP is too snobbish/arrogant.

I will say more on these findings and related matters in an upcoming article. A few more road trips are planned for 2020.

Rays of practical hope

This Andrew Holness-led JLP Administration has done well on the macroeconomic fronts by any objective measurement. Unemployment is at 7.8 per cent, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin). This is the lowest in our history. Jamaica has just over US$3 billion in reserves in our central bank — the most we’ve had since our country’s political independence. And, our debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is expected to be 92 per cent by the end of this quarter. Business and consumer confidence are at record highs. Inflation is at a record low.

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) last month reported that we have had 19 consecutive quarters of growth. Rating agency Moody’s recently upgraded Jamaica’s outlook from positive to stable, while upgrading the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the Government of Jamaica from B3 to B2. Standard and Poor’s recently upgraded Jamaica’s credit rating to B+ from B. Other major international rating agencies, for example, Fitch, have either affirmed and/or upgraded their outlook on Jamaica from stable to positive.

It is now time for good fruits. I am an impatient optimist. I want to see greater focus on bread and butter, kitchen table-type issues in 2020. It is our people’s blood, sweat and tears that secured the recent successful completion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme. Ordinary folks need to see vastly more fruits for all their decades of sacrifice. Folks don’t want to hear any talk of austerity.

Strong headwinds coming

The Administration will not have an easy time as it heads into the 2020 General Election. The upcoming poll will draw the curtains on some notable political careers. The birds, the reliable Black-bellied Plovers, Bananaquits, and John Chewits tweet that the PNP will start firing poison darts at the Holness Administration even before the first official workday in 2020.

They also warble that the Opposition PNP will not support any further extension of states of emergency (SOEs). A zestful period is ahead, the birds shriek. The worst thing the JLP could do is to adopt a posture of complacency or an attitude of ‘we can’t lose’. The voters who put the JLP/PNP on their shoulders today will throw them to the ground tomorrow, if it suits them. It is time for good fruits!

Happy holidays everyone!

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.