LEADING independent credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) is predicting that the novel coronavirus crisis will stabilise globally in April, with virtually no new transmissions in May.

In a news release yesterday, S&P said it has been expanding its examination of the impact the outbreak may have on economic conditions and credit, and that while the situation is a a fluid one, “our worst-case projection holds that the virus stops spreading in late May, and optimistically in March”.

The rating agency said this suggests that the peak impact on economic activity across the Asia-Pacific region will be in the first and second quarters, and should stabilise later in 2020 and recover through early 2021 as the temporary effect on activity subsides.

“In China, lockdowns and quarantines have depressed passenger flows in air and rail, and have closed property sales offices. This supports our view that the economic hit will be felt most keenly in household-related spending. Relief measures, including tax cuts and subsidies, are likely. However, if the disease is not swiftly brought under control, slower economic growth would exacerbate already weaker fiscal performance in many parts of the Asia-Pacific,” S&P said.

Noting that its report on the impact of the novel coronavirus does not constitute a rating action, the agency said it covers initial takeaways of the impact on sectors including banking, property, gaming, hotels, retail, tourism and transport.

“We also look at the sovereign impact and global retail losses from the contraction in the number of Chinese travellers,” S&P said.

In the meantime, the World Health Organization (WHO) says working with technical experts in health operations, WHO operational support and logistics has developed a “2019-nCoV kit”, similar to prepared treatment kits used for outbreaks of other high-threat pathogens.

“In the coming days, the costing, procurement and assembly of these kits will be a priority,” the WHO said in its 14th situation report yesterday.

As of Tuesday, there were 20,438 confirmed cases of the virus and 425 deaths, with only one of those outside China. The Chinese Government says a total of 632 infected people have recovered and been discharged from hospital. The virus has now spread across 31 provinces in China and 24 countries.