Can anything good come out of COVID-19?
The world has, in the last 40 to 50 years, been experiencing the second great age of globalisation, after the first which started in the late 19th century with Great Britain leading the way, but brought to an abrupt end by World War I.
The period until World War II was dominated by the Great Depression and marked by rampant nationalism which drastically reversed globalisation and all but destroyed the world economy. The United States, the only major economy not damaged by the War, designed a new multilateral institutional structure.
Hence, the International Monetary Fund to stabilise international finance, the World Bank to finance reconstruction and development, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization to remove trade barriers, and the United Nations to prevent war.
There followed a period of unprecedented economic growth, the end of colonialism, and the collapse of the Soviet Union. When China ended its isolation, a new era of globalisation started.
Within the framework of multilateralism, globalisation intensified, but the benefits were not shared by all, especially the developing countries, which soon began to feel that globalisation had become too intrusive.
The backlash took the form of aggressive xenophobic nationalism — the antithesis of multilateralism. The turn to unilateralism and nationalism is particularly evident in US foreign policy and the United Kingdom’s Brexit.
Multilateralism is in decline just at the time when the problems facing all countries can only be tackled by international cooperation by all states, rich and poor, large and small. The most obvious example is climate change, but international cooperation has been undermined by unilateral approaches to global warming, pollution of the oceans, and destruction of biodiversity.
In the current fight against the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) all countries must work together in a consistent manner. It cannot be a strong response in some countries and inadequate response in others because all countries are interconnected.
For example, there are millions of people travelling every day for business and recreation. In 2018, there were 4.2 billion air transport passenger journeys. There is also a large uncounted flow of refugees and illegal migrants nearly all of whom are not subjected to screening and treatment.
Where they are, where they are going, and in what numbers are, at best, guesstimates. It is this mass movement of people in the midst of globalisation, climate change, and research on germ warfare that has led to a pattern of increasingly frequent epidemics.
It is said that out of a bad development some good will often come. In Jamaica we say, “Horse dead and crow fat.”
The coronavirus could be such a development because it will require international cooperation of all countries. Maybe this necessity will reverse the drift into unilateralism, quell the nationalism that is retarding the growth of the global economy, and generate a genuine spirit of community on a global level defusing the rise of racism, ethnocentrism and intolerance.
It could enhance the recognition of the value of diversity by demonstrating the invaluable contribution of international collaboration and injecting new life into the now dispirited institutions of global governance.