HEALTH authorities are forecasting that up to 2.6 million people could suffer from acute respiratory illnesses should the COVID-19/coronavirus hit Jamaica, but portfolio minister Dr Christopher Tufton is assuring that systems are being rolled out to prepare the country under a near $2-billion response plan.

The plan, which was announced in a national broadcast on Sunday night, has been approved by the National Disaster Risk Management Council, which is headed by Prime Minister Andrew Holness.

“These are people who will become ill although most will have mild symptoms,” he noted.

Of those numbers, it is anticipated that about 800,000 will seek medical care in public and private facilities, and that at the height of an outbreak, the country could see as many as 35,000 people seeking care within a given week, according to Tufton.

“Close to 50 per cent of the more than 800,000 we expect to access care in our public health facilities. At the height of the outbreak, we could see approximately 16,000 in a week, further, just about 2,000 of the cases visiting the public health facilities, we anticipate, will experience severe acute respiratory infections, requiring hospital care,” the minister said. Of this number, 360 would require critical care.

The health minister said, however, that plans are being put in place for these eventualities involving collaboration across Government and with other key stakeholders; surveillance, including the imposition of travel restrictions now on five countries.

He said health facilities are being made ready, supplies are being monitored, and lab response enhanced to include training to enable local capacity for testing for the virus. Furthermore, he noted that health workers are being sensitised alongside a public education campaign.

“I wish to emphasise that the success of our efforts is contingent on the support of all Jamaicans, including the deliberate effort to access and share accurate information on the virus, thus helping to minimise the anxiety that has been associated with the spread of COVID-19,” he stated.

Dr Tufton stressed that COVID-19 presents a “significant” challenge but that spread of the virus can be minimized, and cases effectively managed if or when it is present in the island, as happened with previous viruses.

He said the plan will guide the direction, coordination, and management of the health response; support emergency response agencies in the implementation of the national plan; monitor and evaluate key actions in public health to ensure their effectiveness and efficiency in achieving the stated strategic goals of the Government to delay, detect, contain, manage, and communicate for COVID-19.

He said, too, that the necessary resources will be mobilised to ensure the comprehensive implementation of key actions needed to realise the goals of the plan.

Dr Tufton said Jamaica’s projections for COVID-19 are based on the experience with H1N1 in 2009 and that the estimate 2.6 million cases is up from the one million acute respiratory illnesses which are usually experienced each year. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) there were 109 577 confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally up to yesterday, and 3809 deaths.