“I will never become a member of the [Jamaica] Labour Party [JLP], but I am certain of one thing: The Labour Party will be in power for a long, long time. You have a good night!” said a diehard People’s National Party (PNP) supporter at the end of that party’s leadership battle between Dr Peter Phillips and Portia Simpson Miller in 2008. The video is again making the rounds on social media. One needs not wonder what that individual is thinking in the aftermath of the 2020 General Election.

What an election it was! The year 2020, indeed, is living up to expectations.

I want to first congratulate the JLP on a stunning victory. Indeed, the writing was on the wall and anyone who expected a different outcome was clearly too busy “sweeping”.

I want to caution the JLP massive, however, and possibly bring some relief to the PNP supporters on the facts of this election. We need to be careful when we say that the country is now a JLP country; this is very far from the truth. I laugh looking at the now famous green-covered map of Jamaica making waves on the different social media platforms, showcasing the massacre that occurred on the night of September 3, 2020. Still, the reality is, both parties need to be worried and do introspections.

In the 2016 General Election, when Andrew Holness faced the incumbent Portia Simpson Miller, 870,807 Jamaicans voted for either party. Of this amount, 437,178 voted for the JLP and 433,629 voted for the PNP; that is, 50.1 per cent of the votes went to the JLP and 49.7 per cent went to the PNP. Only one seat separated the JLP from the PNP, and Andrew Holness won Jamaica House.

Let us now compare that to the 2020 Election: In 2020, a total of 711, 921 Jamaicans voted for either party. This represents an 18.2 per cent decline over 2016. Of this amount, 406,764 voted for the JLP and 305,157 voted for the PNP.

JLP 2016 vs 2020: 437,178 compared to 406,764

PNP 2016 vs 2020: 433,629 compared to 305,157

If you look closer at these numbers you would realise that JLP’s support actually declined by seven per cent, while the PNP’s support declined by 33 per cent. So it is clear, PNP voters did not vote for Andrew Holness, instead they rejected the leadership and structure of the PNP. In plain terms, they stayed home.

It was not because “Brogad” did a good job and that people wanted him. In fact, seven per cent of his own supporters did not show up to vote for him this time around.

If Andrew Holness had won over the PNP votes, then the popular vote for the JLP would have increased by a sizeable margin. In fact, that was what we all expected and thought happened on election night. That did not happen. So, clearly, if the PNP supporters had actually gone to the polls the election would have been much closer, and a very low probability of the JLP losing Jamaica House.

As an incumbent Government being backed by corporate Jamaica, with all the rave about how great Brogad is, one would have expected much more from the JLP in terms of winning over PNP supporters. The JLP had the resources —expected from an incumbent Government—to mobilise its supporters. The PNP was not able to do that. The PNP had very little resources, a questionable party leader who gave the candidates no momentum, and entitled politicians who were in their own bubble and completely out of touch with their constituents.

Also, I would have accepted the narrative that Jamaica is now a JLP country if the number of votes lost by the PNP (18,472) had gone to the JLP, but that did not happen. The figures show that there was no swing of ideology from PNP to JLP.

The decision by the PNP supporters not to turn up at the polls was what caused the historic shift in the Parliament, and not that the majority of Jamaicans prefer the Holness Administration, at least not directly.

Andrew Holness did not win over the hearts of the PNP; instead, it was the PNP that lost the hearts of its supporters. Now I could go into a lot of ‘tea’ where this is concerned but I will reserve for a later article.

Each party would be quick to highlight the impact of COVID-19 on the voter turnout; however, that effect would have been neutralised as both parties would have been affected. The only merit in that argument is the extent to which a JLP or PNP supporter would risk his/her health to support the party. In this case, the PNP supporters, totally dissatisfied with the offerings of their party, would see going to the polls as a bad investment and stay home. The JLP supporters, on the other hand, would more likely risk going to the polls to give Brogad another term.

The truth is, the political analysis of the election is weakened by a lack of data. Exit polls are now something that the Electoral Office of Jamaica and both parties should consider. A partnership between media houses and the parties would make for good investment as it relates to understanding the composition of the electorate and also informing political strategy and policies.

The verdict is that Jamaica is very much, at least for now, still “PNP country”, but the PNP supporters have sent a strong message to the party. The message to the PNP organisation is that when you are ready to lead, we will always be here. We will never switch, but you have to earn our votes.

And that my friend are the facts.

Dwright Wright is a business analyst and strategist, lecturer, and economist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or dwrightwright.r@gmail.com.