The forecast came last Wednesday, in the midst of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, so we would not be surprised to learn that many people, especially us here in Jamaica, missed it. Therefore, we believe we have a duty to point out that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that after a record start, followed by a near-silent July, the Atlantic hurricane season looks like it will be busier than meteorologists had predicted a few months ago.

The NOAA, in updating its forecast for the 2021 Atlantic season, slightly increased the number of named storms and hurricanes expected in what is predicted to be a busy, but not record-breaking year.

The agency, we are told, is now forecasting 15 to 21 named storms, instead of the 13 to 20 it had predicted in May. Meteorologists have also said the number of expected hurricanes is seven to 10, instead of six to 10.

“The chance for an above average hurricane season increased from 60 per cent to 65 per cent, with a 15 per cent chance that forecasters will run past the list of 21 storm names. Last year saw a record 30 named storms and forecasters had to use Greek letters by the end of the season,” a report from The Associated Press told us last week.

We all should bear these forecasts in mind, given that we are now seeing an increase in unstable weather activity with at least three systems heading from the west coast of Africa into the Atlantic basin.

As it now stands, the nearest of those systems to Jamaica is a surface trough of low pressure that the weather experts tell us is “producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic, several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands”.

According to the NOAA, this trough could see some gradual development as it gets to the Lesser Antilles late tomorrow and then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the middle of this week.

Hopefully, that system, and the others behind it, will not strengthen into tropical cyclones, as the region has already experienced some level of dislocation from Hurricane Elsa in June.

However, man has no control over the forces of nature, that is why we should always be prepared.

We therefore take this opportunity to reiterate our appeal to the Jamaican authorities, after Elsa side-swiped the island with heavy rain, that there are gaps and weaknesses in the country’s infrastructure that must be closed and corrected by whatever means necessary before the next storm comes our way.

We have a long way to go before the hurricane season ends. We should do all in our power to prevent death and minimise damage.