I hate to sound like a bit of Jeremiah, nonetheless, I rather be thought of as one than a Panglossian (blindly or unreasonably optimistic person). The reality is, the ghastly novel coronavirus pandemic has plunged us into uncharted waters. We have been repeatedly struck by billowy waves. But there is an approaching and an equally terrible surge which I fear might soon be upon us.

Incidentally, for those who are strangers to the Bible, Jeremiah was generally regarded as a prophet of doom. I think he was a messenger of realism. Like an early warning system, he alerted to imminent danger, but he also pointed to how these perils could be averted by, among other things, heeding warnings with alacrity.

Some weeks ago I alluded to a CNN Business item titled ‘A global energy crisis is coming: There’s no quick fix.’ Some might be quick to say CNN is just a liberal outpost concocting a scare. I don’t agree. In recent days, similar warnings about an imminent global energy crisis have been reported on by the Wall Street Journal and Fox News. I don’t believe CNN and those news sources break bread too often. It must count for something too that globally respected news agencies like Reuters, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), Agence France-Presse (AFP), and others have reported on a looming global energy crisis, in recent days.

In the past we foolishly ignored certain crucial warning signs regarding rapid movements in oil prices on the world market. Our negligence had a near-catastrophic impact on our fragile economy, which is hugely dependent on stable international energy prices. Against that background, I think these sobering details from the mentioned CNN news item need to serve as a critical alert.

It said, among other things: “Astronomical increases in natural gas prices… Skyrocketing coal costs… Predictions of US$100 oil.

“A global energy crunch caused by weather and a resurgence in demand is getting worse, stirring alarm ahead of the winter, when more energy is needed to light and heat homes. Governments around the world are trying to limit the impact on consumers, but acknowledge they may not be able to prevent bills spiking.

“Further complicating the picture is mounting pressure on governments to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy as world leaders prepare for a critical climate summit in November.

“In China, rolling blackouts for residents have already begun, while in India power stations are scrambling for coal. Consumer advocates in Europe are calling for a ban on disconnections if customers can’t promptly settle what they owe.” ( CNN, October 7, 2021)

These details should worry the Andrew Holness-led Administration. Gas prices in America shot up by 55 per cent between October 2020 and October 2021. Minister of Science, Energy and Technology Daryl Vaz, indeed, all well-thinking Jamaicans, should be concerned about this.

We in Jamaica have slowly shifted to natural gas in some critical sectors. That energy source has seen a whopping 500 per cent increase in Europe, between September 2020 and September 2021, Jamaica is bound to be negatively impacted by these realities.

I don’t want to remember the days when we had frequent power cuts, but those are realities too.

Jonathan Ponciano, in an insightful article in Forbes Magazine on September 27, 2021 entitled ‘“Oil prices surge to three-year highs after hurricanes and unexpected demand — how much higher can they go?’ lucidly explained the major reasons for the disequilibrium between supply and demand in the energy market at this time.

The Forbes article noted these and related details: “Driven higher by unexpectedly high demand and catastrophic hurricanes halting production, oil prices rose for a fifth-straight day on Monday, hitting their highest levels in three years as analysts point out cold winter weather and a busy pandemic travel season should only boost prices further.

“Oil prices have surged about 10 per cent over the past month as Hurricanes Ida and Nicholas swept through the Southeast and shut down production in the Gulf of Mexico for weeks.”

Ponciano noted, too, that analysts have said: “Global oil demand has recovered from the Delta variant-spurred spread of COVID-19 more quickly than they anticipated this year, creating a ‘larger than expected’ gap between oil supply and demand.”

A senior reporter at Forbes, focusing on markets and finance, Ponciano also noted that: “Additionally, forecasts calling for a colder-than-usual winter in the northern hemisphere could mean added demand for heating oil, Goldman noted, upping its year-end forecast for Brent Crude prices from US$80 to US$90 — suggesting prices could rise another 12 per cent in the next three months.”

We must ‘tek sleep and mark death’. The oil crises of the 1970s caused a tremendous fallout in our economy and severely shook the very foundations of the Michael Manley Administration. Recall, too, the islandwide gas riots of April 1999. The Gleaner of April 28, 2009, in a reflective piece, noted that: “The demonstrations led to more than 100 arrests in the Corporate Area, St Elizabeth, St Thomas, Clarendon, St Catherine, and St James.” The then P J Patterson Administration was severely jolted.

Patterson, known for his sedated style of leadership, was forced to go to Parliament and prove to the people that he was awake and listening. By then, of course, significant damage had been done to Brand Jamaica. Numerous international news outlets had ‘Paradise on Fire’ splashed across their front pages. The Chicago Tribune of April 22, 1999, for example, reported this: “ ‘Omar [Davies, finance minister] have blood in him eye, and I have blood in mine for him too,’ a woman shouted as she hauled a piece of wood to reinforce a burning barricade.

“At least 140 people had been arrested during the protests. Britain issued a travel advisory.”

The Associated Press, April 22, 1999 said: “In Kingston, overnight, demonstrators set four shops on fire and looters smashed other businesses, ignoring a curfew. Some parts of the island suffered blackouts and telephone problems.”

What happened in the 1970s and 1999 can happen again. The severe hardships brought on by the novel coronavirus pandemic, spiralling crime, and rapid social decay, notwithstanding the good management of the economy by the Andrew Holness Administration, make a replay, or worse, of those circumstances very possible if early measures are not set in place to mitigate the likely and harsh impact of what experts says is an imminent energy crisis.

Bob Marley sang: “We don’t need no more troubles.” But the reality is the pandemic has multiplied several times over long-existing troubles and produced numerous new ones. We are not unique in that respect.

The grotesque hands of COVID-19 have clasped all parts of the globe. No social class, economic enclave, or religious protectorate has been spared from the deadly scythe of the novel coronavirus. The consequences have been horrendous. Millions have been uprooted economically, many millions more are facing social displacement and unprecedented emotional trauma. And the pandemic seems to be far from over.

Consider this: “The World Health Organization has warned of a possible half a million more deaths in Europe by next February. Europe head Hans Kluge blamed insufficient vaccine take-up. ( BBC News, October 4, 2021)

“This is a massive pandemic of the unvaccinated,” that is how the German Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn described the novel coronavirus pandemic in an interview with the BBC last week. Daily COVID-19 cases are once again on the rise in Germany.

Here at home thousands continue to fail to do what is common sense. Epidemiologist Professor Peter Figueroa last week warned that a a fourth wave of the novel coronavirus could hit Jamaica by year end. He continues to implore us to ramp up COVID-19 vaccination.

But are sufficient numbers of us listening? No! Far too many Jamaicans are busy taking their medical advice from religious fanatics, snake-oil charmers, and sellers of moonshine who mostly ply their trade on social media.

Reports in some sections of the media say we dumped some 50,000 doses of expired AstraZeneca vaccines at the end of September and were set to dump another 140,000 at the end of October 2021. These vaccines, I gather, are valued in the region of $150 million. We are rapidly multiplying our troubles. This is madness!

At the time of writing 2,257 Jamaicans had died from COVID-19. These are not mere numbers. Some were fathers, mothers, and main breadwinners. The severely negative effects of the pandemic and related long-standing problems are evident all around us, if we open our eyes. Thousands of Jamaicans are struggling to buy medication to treat chronic illnesses. Many are struggling to pay a mortgage and/or rent. Despite strenuous efforts, many cannot stretch their woefully inadequate pension. Many are struggling to buy food, partly because prices are skyrocketing globally. We are indeed feeling the full impact of cruel games with the global supply chain.

We cannot roll over and die, however. Opportunities are encased in crises. We need to use these crises to identify and implement solutions to, especially many of our seemingly intractable problems.

Green energy

Admittedly, I am no energy expert, but common sense tells me that we need to urgently do a forensic assessment, calibration and or recalibration of our storage, reserves, and transmission systems as regard fossil fuels.

What is our national transition strategy for a seamless escape from the poisonous tentacles of fossil fuels? We can learn a lot from the Germans and the Chinese in this respect.

Simultaneously, we need to invest and attract dozens of genuine investors who can help us with the rapid growth and development of our infant green energy sector. We have an abundance of sun, water and wind resources going idle.

Some of these recommendations are more medium- and long-term solutions, I admit. For now, I believe we need to do what many other countries are doing — they are locking in supplies of fossil fuels, which keep their economies alive, so that when the predicted energy crisis is full blown, they won’t be caught totally flat-footed. I believe the experts call this process oil hedging.

The Holness Administration needs to tell the country what preparations are in train for an energy crisis which global experts say is coming. We cannot be caught saying: “If mi did know, yuh see,” for then it might be far, far too late.

Self-reliance

If we have only learned one lesson from this pandemic it should be that we need to become more self-reliant. And, I am not talking about Michael Manley’s “controlling the commanding heights of the economy” type of self-reliance.

I maintain that Democratic Socialism is a contradiction in terms. Socialism is founded on state control, planning, and apportionment of resources. I have discussed in previous articles why socialism cannot and will never work. There is no successful or prosperous socialist country anywhere on the face of the Earth. And, please don’t come talking about Scandinavian countries. I also provided incontrovertible evidence previously showing that these economies are not socialist.

By self-reliance I am talking about Jamaica being in a position where she has majority control over her own basic subsistence. Alexander Hamilton, one of America’s founding fathers, said: “If a man controls your subsistence, he effectively controls your will.” By the way, Hamilton was not merely talking about food. With respect to food, though, we don’t even grow most of our own. With all the arable lands in Jamaica we are importing onions, peas, lettuce, you name it, we are importing it. This is madness!

So Manley, was not wrong when he talked about self-reliance. His approach to achieving it, however, was fatally flawed. Scaring away foreign companies and investors and telling folks that if they don’t like what the Administration is doing they can grab one of the five flights to Miami did not facilitate self-reliance. It achieved the opposite.

Self-reliance can best be achieved by creating the policies and an environment in which locals and foreigners are gung-ho about investing in Jamaica. We can learn a lot from the Japanese in this respect.

There was a time in the 1960s when Jamaica had many of the biggest international companies operating here. And there was time, the late 80s, very early 90s, when black entrepreneurs were moving on up like the Jeffersons. That came to a near crashing halt under Patterson’s 14 and a half years in office.

If we are going to become self-reliant we need to get back on the trajectory where investor dollars are chasing after Jamaica and not substantially the reverse, as exists today.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.