The fight is on for play-off berths as NFL regular season draws to a close
The curtains closed on Week 17 of the 2021/22 National Football League (NFL) regular season last Monday night (January 3) with an emotional 26-14 home win by quarterback (QB) Ben Roethlisberger and his Pittsburgh Steelers over the Cleveland Browns, and now professional football will go where it has never been before — Week 18.
Prior to this year, the regular season would have already been completed, all the play-off places would have been filled and the postseason would begin this weekend. But this is unlike any other year in many ways and some of the play-off spots are still up for grabs. Seven teams from each conference will contest the play-offs this year and five teams from the American Football Conference (AFC) have guaranteed their spot while six National Football Conference (NFC) teams are already in.
For the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals (North division title), Kansas City Chiefs (West division title), Tennessee Titans (South division title), Buffalo Bills (play-off berth) and New England Patriots (play-off berth) are guaranteed while the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers are all vying for the last two play-off spots.
Roethlisberger is reportedly playing his last year and would like to (at least) play past the regular season in his farewell run. His Steelers (8-7-1) still have a mathematical chance, but they will need to beat the Ravens (8-8) this Sunday, then pray that the Colts (9-7) lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14) and hope that the contest between the Raiders (9-7) and the Chargers (9-7) doesn’t end in a draw. Anything is possible but the Colts losing to the Jaguars is a stretch, so the Steelers will be looking for a major miracle.
The Ravens clinch a play-off berth with a win plus a Chargers loss, a Colts loss and a Miami Dolphins loss or tie. The Colts have an easier path as they just need a win (or tie) against the Jaguars or a Chargers loss plus a tie between the Ravens and Steelers or a Chargers loss plus a Steelers loss and a Dolphins win. The Raiders are in with a win against the Chargers or a tie against the Chargers plus a Colts loss or a Colts loss plus a Steelers loss or tie. And the Chargers control their own destiny as they only need a win or tie against the Raiders to extend their season.
It’s easy to see the Colts making it, but the next team is anybody’s guess.
In the NFC, the Green Bay Packers (North division title, No 1 seed, only first-round bye and home-field advantage), Dallas Cowboys (East division title), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (South division title), Arizona Cardinals (play-off berth), Los Angeles Rams (play-off berth) and Philadelphia Eagles (play-off berth) are all through while the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers are competing for the final available slot.
The Saints (8-8) are in the play-offs if they win against the Atlanta Falcons (7-9) this Sunday, but they would need the 49ers (9-7) to lose their encounter with the Rams (12-4), while the 49ers get the nod if they win or tie in their encounter. The Saints have won most of their away games this season (5-3) and should be able to push past the Falcons this Sunday, but the 49ers will be in for a ride as the Rams will win the NFC West division with a victory, so there is no chance of them resting their starters this weekend – this should be a good one.
Elsewhere in the league, there are a few other ifs, buts and maybes that will be decided by dogfights.
The Dolphins (8-8), who famously became the first team to lose seven-straight then have a seven-game win streak in the same season, were overwhelmed 34-3 by the Titans last Sunday to break their winning run and see their play-off dreams evaporate. They will welcome the Patriots (10-6) into Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday to try and close the regular season on a high, but the Patriots are 6-1 on the road this season and are battling with the Bills for the AFC East crown, so the Dolphins will need to be sharks if they have hopes for a (spoiler) win.
The Patriots clinch the AFC’s No 1 seed, the only first-round bye and home-field advantage with a win plus a Bills loss or tie, plus a Chiefs loss, plus a Titans loss – lots need to happen – but they clinch the East Division title with a win or tie and a loss by the Bills.
The Bills (10-6) have a slightly easier path as they welcome the New York Jets (4-12) into Buffalo for their closing game and should only need to play slightly above average for a win and claim the crown for the East division title.
The Cowboys (11-5) have already clinched the NFC East division title and play the Eagles (9-7) tomorrow in Philadelphia for what should be (on paper) a very academic outing. However, while the place of both teams has already been decided in the play-offs, there is divisional pride at stake and a couple of Dallas defensive players are chasing history – cornerback Trevon Diggs has 11 interceptions for the season (tying the team record held by Everson Walls since 1981) and rookie linebacker Micah Parsons has 13 sacks, just 1.5 behind Jevon Kearse’s 1999 NFL rookie record – this one should provide some highlights.
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Team Odds
Green Bay Packers 4.50
Kansas City Chiefs 5.75
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.50
Buffalo Bills 9.00
Los Angeles Rams 9.00
Tennessee Titans 13.00
Dallas Cowboys 13.00
New England Patriots 17.00
Arizona Cardinals 18.00
Indianapolis Colts 21.00
*Only Top 10 odds shown (see website for full list)