The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are quickening their awful pace in this country. No, I am not referring to the four terrible riders in the Book of Revelation. I am talking about what I see as the four major killers of the working poor and middle class. These are rising inflation, a supremely abnormal murder rate, the horrific consequences of the novel coronavirus pandemic — upon especially the most vulnerable among us — and frightening learning loss.

As I see it, these are our Achilles heels; most anything and everything else is just background noise. If history has taught us anything, it is this that when people are deprived of basic necessities they are not easily placated.

Doubtless, some very bright person is going to say, “Well, that has always been the case.” I believe we should not continue to view new and developing problems, in addition to long-standing issues that are being rapidly made worse by current realities, with the same jaundiced lenses of the past.

Bob Marley, international reggae legend, sang: “A hungry mob is a angry mob.” That is not hyperbole. We ignore at our own peril the signs of a swiftly gathering storm.

Killer #1: Inflation

The skyrocketing cost of living is having a hugely deleterious impact on folks all over Jamaica. Those who believe I am exaggerating should, for example, compare their supermarket bills between September 2021 and January 2022. I did. The cost of basic food items is rising at a ridiculous pace. I have not made a single addition to my supermarket list for the mentioned period, yet my bill has increased by nearly 39 per cent. I do not buy luxury items like caviar. And I certainly do not buy foie gras, which a now deceased People’s National Party (PNP) minister took a liking to on one of his many junkets.

Last Sunday it cost me near $9,500 for a full tank of gasoline. I do not drive a Lamborghini. In October 2021 I paid a little over $ 7,000. Incidentally, I always buy gas on Beechwood Avenue. That petrol station is said to be one of the cheapest in the Corporate Area. Rising inflation is wreaking havoc across this land. Surging utility costs is strangling us.

The astronomical increase in prescription and over-the-counter drugs over the last six months is threatening to send hundreds of our countrymen, particularly Jamaicans with non-communicable diseases, to an early grave.

The cost of food items in the market, even if you buy at Coronation Market as I do, is climbing at a seriously uncomfortable pace. On top of these spiralling costs, insurance payments are advancing at a mean rate too.

As I see it, inflation is tantamount to a wage cut. Right quick some bright spark is going to say, “But inflation is wreaking havoc on the lives of people all over the world.” That’s correct. Rising inflation is making life miserable for millions, even in the US and Britain. Countries in Africa, especially, are feeling the pinch. In Sudan, inflation was 340 per cent in 2021. In Ethiopia, it was 33 per cent last year. In Zambia, 16 per cent, and Nigeria 15 per cent in 2021. And Zimbabwe experienced 61 per cent and Angola 27 per cent inflation in 2021.

There are those who will certainly argue, too, that the rising inflation being experienced here in Jamaica is inescapable because, among other things, it is the result of global supply chain problems, or what a recent The Economist magazine article described as a global labour shortage. They are correct, too.

But, here’s the thing, to use an American coinage, inflation becomes most noticeable when it is happening in your backyard, not someone else’s. When inflation is wreaking havoc on one’s personal pocket and dinner table, that is when its cruel consequences are really real. Reality is now!

I think most Jamaicans are experiencing the biting and bitter impact of inflation in their pockets and seeing the subtractive impact at their dinner tables now, notwithstanding that inflation at 7.3 per cent (Bank of Jamaica, December, 2021) lower today than the high double-digit inflation of the 70s and the 90s. The reality is, today is not the 1990s and the 1970s. Folks are feeling the pain now. They are seeing their standard of living disappear now.

The reality of politics — life, as a matter of fact — is, folks are not particularly impressed by nostalgia when biting physical and physiological immediacy are staring them in the face. Reality is not negotiable. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a recent statement that: “Following a surge in the second half of 2021, we expect inflation to average 3.9 per cent in advanced economies and 5.9 per cent in emerging market and developing economies in 2022, before subsiding in 2023. ⁠We expect food prices to rise by 4.5 per cent this year before declining next year.”

This is a hopeful sign for the global economy. I suspect the IMF’s forecast in predicated on the absence of any cataclysmic global event, like Russia invading the Ukraine.

But some very dark clouds are gathering on the horizon. Consider this snippet from the respected The New York Times last Wednesday: “Russian troops are massed on the border with Ukraine. Moscow and Washington are exchanging heated words.”

If Russia invades Ukraine, God forbid, I hate to imagine what the prices at the gas pump will be. And, I shiver to think what the prices of basic food items at the supermarket and market will possibly climb to. I suspect the impact on the pockets and dinner tables of especially the working poor will be deadly. People will not sit by and simply suffer.

I have said previously in this space that, ultimately, no one is coming to save us and we have to save ourselves. I don’t believe a majority in the upper echelons of national decision-making get that. Or, if they do, their lack of required action. As I see it, it tells me they don’t give two hoots.

Early in November 2021 I said in this space that an energy crisis was imminent. I noted, among other things: “Admittedly, I am no energy expert, but common sense tells me that we need to urgently do a forensic assessment, calibration, and or recalibration of our storage, reserves, and transmission systems regarding fossil fuels.

What is our national transition strategy for a seamless escape from the poisonous tentacles of fossil fuels? We can learn a lot from the Germans and the Chinese in this respect. The Andrew Holness-led Administration needs to tell the country what preparations are in train for an energy crisis which global experts say is coming. We cannot be caught saying, “If mi did know, yuh see,” for then it might be far, far too late.

At the time of writing, oil prices inched just above US$90 per barrel — the highest since 2014. Some analysts say it could rise over US$110 by mid year.

What if worse comes to worse, as we say in local parlance, and Russian troops cross into Ukraine? To ensure the medium- and long-term survival of the Jamaican economy, I noted in the mentioned column that we needed a national energy transition action plan? Do we as yet have one? If, yes, why is the Andrew Holness-led Administration not sharing the details with the country?

For now, some countries have already locked in supplies of fossil fuels, which keep their economies alive, so that when the predicted energy crisis is full blown they won’t be caught totally flat-footed. Have we done a similar thing? I believe the experts call this process oil hedging.

I think we need far more national planners and managers who are seeing way beyond today. Do we as yet have a national plan for rural development with matching resources? If we do, it must be the best kept secret. As for agriculture, when are we going to get serious about feeding ourselves?

Killer #2: Crime monster

As a country, we must not only be able to adequately feed ourselves, we must also be able to secure our person and property. Last week Tuesday sections of the media reported that murders had declined nearly six per cent compared with the corresponding period last year.

The Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF), headed by Major General Antony Anderson, has evidently stepped up their game in the last three weeks. And the new head of the Jamaica Defence Force (JDF), Rear Admiral Antonette Wemyss-Gorman seemed to have injected a new and positive pep in the step of the army.

All well thinking Jamaicans need to support the members of our security forces. We already know the horrendous murder rate that is a millstone around our collective necks. I have adumbrated this previously. Going forward, I believe all of us have to recognise that there is no safe harbour in siding with criminals. Those who continue to do so are involved in a terrible zero-sum game. They are hastening their own demise and their children’s.

Killer #3: COVID’s consequences

Our children are among the worst affected by the novel coronavirus pandemic, which virologist and related experts say is the worst in the last 100 years. One of the awful consequences of the pandemic is that dozens of children have been orphaned. Hundreds of fathers, mothers, and main breadwinners are dead. The impact of this reality will be felt for many years to come.

How this society treats with the dozens of children who have lost their parents and or guardians will pronounce upon whether we are evolving or trapped in Thomas Hobbes’ State of Nature, where life is “nasty, brutish and short”.

The ghastly hands of COVID-19 have clasped all parts of the globe. No social class, economic enclave, or religious protectorate has been spared from the deadly scythe of the novel coronavirus. The consequences have been horrendous. Millions have been uprooted economically, many millions more are facing social displacement and unprecedented emotional trauma.

At the time of writing 2,706 Jamaicans had succumbed to COVID-19. We must remain vigilant as we return to normal.

Killer#4: Learning loss

Prime Minister Andrew Holness and our nation’s health experts made a darn good call when they ignored those who wanted him to close schools so soon as it was confirmed that the Omicron variant had landed our shores. I unreservedly support the Herculean efforts of our teachers and related support personnel who doubled up on the health protocols and, with the leadership of Education and Youth Minister Fayval Williams, kept the doors of the nations’ schools open.

Notwithstanding the Education Ministry’s best effort, I think, it is going to be many years before Jamaica’s children close/overcome an estimated 1.3 billion in-class hours lost over 20 months of physical school closures as reported in sections of the media. When the pandemic ends, it is going to take a national effort on the part of every well-thinking Jamaican to overcome this staggering deficit.

Our most vulnerable children were severely disadvantaged based on access to remote education. They have been hit the hardest. They will require special interventions and national support if we are to prevent the loss of an entire generation, or more. Outside of crime, I think addressing the learning loss as a consequence of the pandemic will be Jamaica’s number one challenge for the foreseeable future.

In previous columns I have outlined how social decay is thwarting the economic gains that we are making. Left unaddressed, our long-standing and current astounding rate of social deterioration will only quicken. It cannot be rationalised away.

Likewise, if we fail to take the necessary steps to begin to deal with the learning loss I fear that Jamaica will become an ungovernable State. Were we to get to that dreadful cul-de-sac, I fear only those who are too old, too young, unskilled, and/or have no option but to stay in Jamaica will remain here.

I hate to sound like a bit of Jeremiah, but I rather be thought of as one than a Panglossian (blindly or unreasonably optimistic person).

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.