CONSUMERS fretting about price increases which are eating away at the family budget are not stocking up in anticipation of further price increases, but are instead cutting back on purchases.

“The average basket content has changed again because of rising prices,” Gassan Azan, CEO of Megamart, told the Jamaica Observer. He said purchases were smaller and there was no evidence of consumers buying in anticipation of prices going higher.

Azan operates warehouse shopping outlets in St Catherine, Kingston and Montego Bay.

Derrick Cotterell, CEO of Derrimon Trading, the parent company for Select Grocers and Sampars Cash and Carry in Jamaica and two supermarkets in the tri-state area of the US, said he’s seeing similar trends among consumers in his stores.

“They are responding to deals and bulk buying, but the spending power is not there, so they are continuing as normal. Some are even cutting back. The average consumer is buying at downmarket outlets,” Cotterell told the Business Observer.

Cotterel added, “a small percentage is buying in bulk because they realise that prices are rising. But they still support the supermarkets because they carry a wide range”.

He observed, “What I see as a trend is less single people cooking at home. More and more single people are buying food from restaurants, especially the younger people. People are going back to normal. Nobody is stocking. There is likely to be price increases but no shortages, certainly not in Jamaica.”

Consumer prices have been rising rapidly in Jamaica over the last few months. Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) show point-to-point inflation in February reached 10.7 per cent. However, the average increase in the cost of food has been outpacing the general inflation level, rising 12.8 per cent in the last 12 months, though increases for some individual items have been far greater.

The latest round of increases were on meats, due to a hike in the cost of feeds.

Meanwhile, Cotterell commented, “Inflation will continue and prices will continue to rise. In New York the price of pork and some meat cuts are coming down. But, canned goods and processed goods are still high. Chicken prices are still high, and chicken foot is actually the most expensive part of the chicken now in New York, selling for over US$3 per pound.”

Cotterell said that what shoppers can buy in bulk they do, but basically they are trying to get back to normal. He added, “In the earlier days of the pandemic there was stocking, but people soon realised that there would be no shortages.

“In New York shortages were short term but we got substitutes, even though shipping rates are still high and there are shortage of bottles, and the price of cans is high.”

The food distributor concluded, “Also, a lot of prices cannot be long term. It would not be smart to stock up. There is also the issue of shelf life. Prices may get higher in the short term but eventually they will come down.

“To stock at these high prices does not make sense either. With China shutting down and war, [some products are affected], however, these are all short term. Over the long term prices will fall. I don’t see it happening for more than another year. The world is in turmoil, but it has been in more turmoil before during the two world wars,” he said, asserting that a return to normalcy would eventually occur.