Great military powers armed with the modern weapons of warfare always assume — or this is what they tell their populations — that their intervention overseas would be over quickly with a minimum of soldiers killed.

It is often promised that the invading army will be welcomed by the ‘oppressed’ domestic population. This justification is used to win the minds of the people by leaders who believe that a successful war is the mark of great and patriotic leadership.

But this narrative is sometimes a combination of self-delusion, deliberate misinformation, and propaganda. The reality is often vastly different, especially when the population and land area are large, such as Vietnam and Ukraine; or the terrain is difficult, as in Afghanistan. This lesson has apparently not been learnt.

The US spent years, lost thousands of soldiers, and dropped more bombs than were dropped during the entire World War II, but eventually had to withdraw from Vietnam, whose fighters were highly motivated.

In Afghanistan, the Russians tried and failed and were forced to withdraw with their tails between their legs after 10 years. The US stayed for more than 20 years and spent countless millions of dollars to remove the Taliban, only to leave with the Taliban returning to power instantaneously.

The invasion of Ukraine last month by Russia has not gone as well as Russia expected. Indeed, the Ukrainian resistance has been more robust and resilient than anyone could have expected, and this is creating problems for President Vladimir Putin.

First, it is likely, as history has demonstrated elsewhere, that there will be continual guerilla warfare resisting the military subjugation by the Russians. There are not enough people in Ukraine who feel an affinity to Russia. Surprisingly, the Russians did not learn this in Afghanistan.

Second, as the casualties mount, domestic support will change to discontent requiring forceful suppression of the opposition. This can be a problem even in Russia, which is in no way a democracy.

Third, the economic cost of the war will take its toll. The costs are already being felt, but will escalate sharply as sanctions increase and begin to take effect. Production of everything, from oil to food, has already been disrupted and logistics have been compromised.

Fourth, it has reconstituted the Western Alliance of the United States, Canada and Europe, which was somewhat weakened by former US President Donald Trump and intensified the opposition to Russia. This is the very thing Mr Putin claims to have been trying to avoid by invading Ukraine.

Russia has, since February, been subjected to the most comprehensive isolation experienced by any country in recent history. The devastating economic, trade and financial sanctions and the withdrawal of foreign corporations are disrupting daily life.

Russian teams are excluded from nearly all international sport competitions. This type of extreme isolation eventually forced the end of Apartheid in South Africa, but it reinforced the stranglehold of many dictators.

Mr Putin has made a colossal miscalculation and now risks Ukraine becoming the Afghanistan that Russia was forced to flee. This could eventually cost him political power, but, in the meantime, it is costing the rest of the world.