NFL: There are no sure bets in the league
Week 7 of the 2022/23 National Football League (NFL) season has cemented the fact that there are no sure bets in this league, and in the middle of it all the headlines of the weekend turned out to be a handful of quarterbacks (QB) stories — a couple of good dreams, but mostly nightmares.
Somehow, the New York Jets (5-2) and New York Giants (6-1) continue to find ways to win while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) and Green Bay Packers (3-4) are scuffling to find ways to right their respective ships. The Jets and Giants are led by two very young QBs but the Buccaneers and Packers are piloted by two elder statesmen, with a total of seven Most Valuable Player (MVP) awards between them.
Tom Brady (Buccaneers) has three of those awards while Aaron Rodgers (Packers) has four, including the one from last season. They are, without doubt, two of the greatest QBs to ever grace the NFL gridiron but have found the going tough this year. Leading up to last weekend Brady had just eight touchdown passes and averaged 6.7 yards per completion — he performed a lot better last Sunday but couldn’t stave off a 3-21 loss to the Carolina Panthers (2-5). The Buccaneers have not scored a touchdown in the first quarter all season and were shut out totally in week 7, plus their 17.7 average points per game is tied for twenty-sixth with the team they lost to last weekend. Additionally, in the previous week, Tampa Bay lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) whose average points per game at 15.3 is only better than that of the Denver Broncos (14.3).
Coupled with an inept running game, at a league-worst 64.4 yards per game, the Buccaneers offence appears to be going backwards fast. Brady is under .500 through seven games for the first time since 2002 but, with more than half the season left to play, there is still room for corrections. He has, of course, become a seven-ring icon because he has managed to defy the odds and demonstrate resilience, but with age now such a factor how much is really is left in the tank? Only time will tell.
Rodgers, with Davante Adams now plying his trade for the Las Vegas Raiders, has not been able to effectively complete passes down the field. He averaged just 3.2 yards on his completions in last Sunday’s 21-23 loss to the Washington Commanders (3-4) but, even prior to that, entered the day with the second-fewest passing yards per completion in the NFL at 4.3. The Green Bay offence is averaging 18.3 points per game (down from 25.6 last season) which has them ranked twenty-third in the league, and the 38 rushing yards against the Commanders was little help for the passing game.
The Packers’ play-caller is the reigning MVP for a reason, and with ten more games to go in the regular season the Green Bay hopefuls will be looking for a spark in this sputtering offence. They visit JustBet favourite Buffalo Bills (5-1) on Sunday night and something special will be needed for Green Bay to break their longest skid since 2018.
Elsewhere in ‘QB-land’ the Indianapolis Colts have been anaemic on offence and are averaging just 16.1 points per game, resulting in Matt Ryan being benched in favour of second-year QB Sam Ehlinger — possibly the end of Ryan’s career.
Dallas Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott, who has been out since game 1 with an injured thumb, made a triumphant return in a hard-fought 24-6 win over the Detroit Lions while Miami Dolphins’ QB Tua Tagovailoa, who missed two games due to concussion protocols, was efficient in a 16-10 win over the Steelers.
The feature games this Sunday will see two teams, coming off their bye, stacking up against two teams who endured disappointing losses in week 7 — The Los Angeles Rams (3-3) welcome the San Francisco 49ers (3-4) into SoFi Stadium and the Packers (3-4) will pay a visit to Buffalo and take on the Bills (5-1) for Sunday night football.
The Rams have started nine different offensive linemen this season, and this has severely impacted the protection for QB Matthew Stafford. The Rams have allowed 22 sacks so far, the fifth most in the NFL, and they are hoping that the return of centre Brian Allen will bring some stability to an offensive line which has had just one player start all their first seven games. The defending Super Bowl champions have laboured to move the ball offensively this season and the hapless performance of their offensive line is a major reason — the rest week may have been exactly what the doctor ordered.
The 49ers come to town this Sunday fresh off their heartbreaking 23-44 home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend. San Francisco is tied for fourth in the NFL in turnovers (12) — three of which came in week 7 — and, along with their much-lauded defence, ball security will be a major factor in deciding the outcome against the Rams. In their three wins the 49ers have one turnover but in their four losses they have 11. The Rams are 2-2 at home and the 49ers are 1-3 when playing away this season — brace for a California dogfight.
The early season success of the Bills can be summarised by looking at their superior scoring margin. They lead the league with a plus-15.8 scoring margin, which is near double the next closest team — the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles at plus-9.3. The Packers, on the other hand, have lost the deep threats of receivers Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and are tied for twentieth place at minus-2.6 (down from plus-4.2 last season) with the Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns.
Green Bay is still reeling from their astonishing loss last weekend and will be facing a Buffalo team that is well rested and overflowing with talent. The Packers’ defence has kept the games manageable but the offence has failed to deliver over the first seven games. They still have the talent and track record to turn their season around but the Bills are 4-0 against last year’s play-off teams and have won by an average margin of 23.5 points. The record of the Packers may look dismal (especially away against the Bills) but this team still has pedigree and should not be taken lightly. Are you ready for some football?
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Super Bowl LVII Champion
Team — Odds
Buffalo Bills 3.60
Philadelphia Eagles 6.00
Kansas City Chiefs 7.40
San Francisco 49ers 16.00
Minnesota Vikings 17.00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17.00
Baltimore Ravens 18.00
Dallas Cowboys 19.00
Cincinnati Bengals 22.00
Los Angeles Rams 24.00
*Only top 10 odds shown (see website for full list)
Note: Odds are subject to change.