One of my readers asked me to explain the main ingredients for winning a general election. She also asked me to give reasons for my forecast that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) will win a third-consecutive term at Jamaica House.

As I see it, specific political ingredients are needed for a party to win a national, that is, local or general election in Jamaica. I have outlined the basics here.

First the ingredients must all come together in the required amounts. They must be carefully mixed and must be placed in the political oven at the right time — meaning in tandem with public sentiment.

Public sentiment is critical. If the public does not sufficiently like and/or has lost faith in the bakery (political party), baker (party leader), and/or bread, then winning a national election is nigh impossible in a functioning Western liberal democracy.

Like Abraham Lincoln famously said: “Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it nothing can succeed.”

Strong leader

A strong, confident, likeable, empathetic, and articulate leader is a critical prerequisite. In politics people have to like you and you have to like people. There is no getting around that.

Folks know when someone is pasting on a grin to impress them. They don’t need a degree in facial science to do that. They know when someone is speaking from the heart as opposed to simply reciting words merely for the purpose of optics. They know when someone is operating outside of their natural skin or is being trite or phoney.

Articulating ideas which connect with the pockets and dinner tables of people is just as important. Sure you can speak with the voice of an angel and convince some people. But, in this information age, this age of consumerism and aspiration, if a political leader is not saying things which register with the immediate needs of a voter, he/she is a dead duck.

Politics today is a retail activity. What’s in it for me?

Able team needed

Winning a general election is a team activity. Folks know when there is dissension in the camp. It is a settled matter: People do not vote for divided political parties to manage their national affairs. If you cannot manage your own internal affairs in an adult manner, then you cannot manage national affairs competently. This is common sense.

The strong leader of a political party must be complemented by an able and energetic team. Here at home, the constitution requires that there must be at least 11 Cabinet ministers, including the prime minister. Folks, as we say in local parlance, size up (assess carefully) who are able to take up ministerial responsibility, long before they vote. I believe that if discerning voters don’t readily see able individuals who can easily fit into key positions like finance, education, health, agriculture, infrastructure, industry, etc, that does have significant bearing on which party they cast their ballot for. Rightly so!

Clear policies and programmes

If a political party has a strong leader, able and energetic team, but weak policies and programmes, then its chances of gaining or retaining State power is considerably diminished. Research shows this.

Today many voters want to know how much the implementation will cost. Will I have to pay more taxes? Will more borrowing be needed? Will I be made poorer to make others richer? Will making others richer benefit me? These are questions that discerning folks, especially, are asking today.

As I noted last Sunday, putting forward what are referred to as fully costed programmes (as they are called in Britain) is the modus operandi in most developed economies these days. In the United Kingdom, for example, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), an independent body, costs all the programmes set in the manifesto of a political party and makes a declaration to the public as to whether they are affordable or not. ‘Run wid it’ is not given any space.

The 3Ms

The strong leader, able and energetic team, clear policies and programmes, fully costed, are largely political duds if they are not incorporated in an engaging and attractive message. A political party also needs a message, money and momentum to gain/retain State power.

By message I am talking about the vehicle which brings home to the voter, in accessible ways, the policies and programmes of the political party. An effective message must be a strong adhesive. It cannot be predicted on the platform of: “Say something, anything, about everything.” Fake news, misguided bluster, empty chat, political deflection, ‘bad mind’, threats of street demonstrations, and attempts at filibuster do not typically help to make a strong message. Neither does flip-flopping. Staying on message is as vital as the message itself. The message needs to have a personal foundation.

A political party needs money to gain or retain State power. Political campaigns are not cheap. Whether the funds come from small or large donors, via Internet or traditional methods of donation, or a combination of the two, money is needed to mount a successful campaign.

Having millions of dollars in a campaign chest is great, but that alone will not guarantee victory at the poll. There are numerous examples of campaigns which massively outspent their opponents and end up massively losing. Money has to be strategically spent in a political campaign.

Increasingly, in our politics, money is becoming an important determiner of who wins or lose. The buying of votes with various inducements, whether cash, food, promises of material gain, etc, is not something which is unique to Jamaica’s political culture. Under our Representation of the People Act (ROPA) vote-buying is a crime. Admittedly, bribery and variant forms of it have been part of our electoral landscape in Jamaica for decades.

Long ago, I said here that the buying and selling of votes are betrayals almost tantamount to treason. I still hold that view.

Campaigns can and will have moments where they falter, or even flop, but if they lose momentum altogether, that is usually a signal that the fat lady is singing that old Nat King Cole classic Goodnight Irene.

Some people describe momentum as a feeling. Utterances like these are not uncommon: “Mi just feel it, we are going to win,” or “All the stars are lined-up in our favour.” Momentum is not a mere feeling or an intangible. There are various ways of measuring, monitoring, and/or affecting momentum. The political party which does not have momentum on its side is fighting a hugely uphill battle.

On the ground organisation

One of the biggest determiners of who wins or loses on voting day is the strength of a political party’s organisation on the ground. Ground game is key.

Organisation means you have to be prepared for almost all eventualities, rain or shine, literally. A political party has to know its voters and those likely to cast a ballot for it. It must know where to find its voters, “quick and fast”, as we say on the streets.

Political parties also have to assist with transportation of voters and party workers. This is a standard practice all over the world. Those who thumb their noses at this necessary practice are living in la-la land.

Organisation is not something which is readied on the day of an election. It has to be primed long before the first ballot is placed in a ballot box. This means checking and double-checking the internal logistics of a party and making sure they are well oiled. It also means having a plan B and maybe C, as just in case insurance.

Third term forecast

In my The Agenda piece of June 11, 2023 I said, among other things: “Benjamin Franklin, one of the founding fathers of America, famously said: ‘Nothing is certain except death and taxes.’ “

I believe in the accuracy of Franklin’s aphorism. So let me hasten to say that, while I stand by my forecast of a third-consecutive term for the JLP, I also recognise that political administrations are hostages to events. These can either be man-made or acts of Mother Nature. If some catastrophic natural disaster, God forbid, were to hit Jamaica, notwithstanding the country’s catastrophe insurance, that could shift the political dial decidedly in the direction of the Opposition People’s National Party (PNP). Conversely, such an event could also shift the dial further away from the PNP. Think the quick return of amenities like electricity, water, and food supplies to normality.

A calamitous, political scandal is an example of man-made event that could also decisively shift the political pendulum to the PNP. If there is no man-made and/or natural catastrophes between now and the next major election, and the JLP increases its delivery of outcomes that register in people’s pockets and on their dinner tables, then the JLP will conclusively win the next national election.

From as early as February of this year I made a forecast that the JLP would win a third-consecutive term at Jamaica House. I stand by my forecast. I am even more convinced that I will be proved correct based on the political receipts from the PNP’s campaign over the last many months.

PNP President Mark Golding has criss-crossed the country several times over the last 24 months. The political receipts from his trek show to me that he has squandered several glorious opportunities to connect well beyond the base of his party. If the PNP believes a semi-revival of its base — which has traditionally been larger than that of the JLP — will guarantee their return to Jamaica House, it is living in cloud-cuckoo-land.

The undecided in the marginal seats are kingpins. If the majority of them stick with the JLP, even a full revival of the PNP’s traditional base won’t secure a return to Jamaica House for the PNP.

I previously commented on some of the frighteningly negative statements which Golding and some leaders in the PNP have made on the political stump. Some in the PNP might believe their divisive statements will be mere nine-day wonders. They are wrong: This is the age of social media and the 24-hour news cycle. Google is generous and is at the fingertips of thousands of Jamaicans who are connected to broadband Internet.

Golding has been atop the perch of the PNP for almost three years now. I don’t believe he has proved that he is a strong leader. I think he has demonstrated extremely poor judgement on far too many occasions. I commented on these previously.

Four years ago, I said here that there was famine of talent in the PNP. I believe that is still the case. I don’t see a strong team around Golding. The bungling of the selection process for the choosing of several standard-bearers in recent months is the most recent evidence that strategic planning/forecasting is in short supply in the PNP.

I am yet to be convinced that the PNP has the three Ms, message, money and momentum, down ‘pat’ as we say in the streets. “Time Come” is not a message, as some in the PNP are affirming; it is a mere slogan/tag line.

There are loud whispers that the PNP is yet to convince key traditional financial backers that it has regained its mojo. As for momentum, the PNP understandably is buoyed by the findings of the recent Don Anderson Poll, which it commissioned. Recall the poll showed that 89 Old Hope Road was leading the JLP by nearly five percentage points. The PNP has, however, made the dreadful error of becoming fixated on the inhalation of Anderson’s findings and has all but abandoned a most critical part of what gets political parties across the wining line, first, kitchen table polices.