NFL: Play-off picture gets clearer as battles continue
With the dust settling on Week 15 of the 2023-24 National Football League (NFL) regular season, the play-off picture got a bit clearer (albeit only slightly).
In the National Football Conference (NFC), despite having both suffered losses, the Dallas Cowboys (10-4) and Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) joined the already qualified San Francisco 49ers (11-3) as play-off qualifiers.
In the American Football Conference (AFC), the only team that ensured their qualification were the Baltimore Ravens (11-3), after a 23-7 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday night.
Conversely, after suffering losses over the weekend, the Tennessee Titans (5-9), New York Jets (5-9) and New England Patriots (3-11) were all eliminated from AFC contention, while in the NFC, the Washington Commanders (4-10) and Arizona Cardinals (3-11) joined the previously eliminated Carolina Panthers (2-12).
Of all the eliminated teams, the Panthers were the only winner last weekend, after coming out on the better end of a stingy 9-7 scoreline against the Atlanta Falcons — only their second win of the season.
The loss by the Falcons made the qualification for the Cowboys automatic, despite the Buffalo Bills circling the wagons and running over Dallas 31-10 last Sunday. However, nothing was uglier than the obliteration of the Los Angeles Chargers by the Las Vegas Raiders at the beginning of the NFL-week last Thursday (December 14).
The Raiders led 41-0 at half-time, before pushing the deficit to 63–7 in the fourth quarter, then the Chargers scored two meaningless touchdowns. The Raiders became just the third team in NFL history to shut out their opponent in the first half, while also totalling at least 42 points.
Due to the 45-29 domination of the 49ers over the Cardinals last Sunday, the Eagles have their cleats firmly placed in the postseason, despite being upset by the Seattle Seahawks 17-20 last Monday night. The Eagles closed out the month of November with an overtime win against the Bills and appeared to be a lock to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but three games later, they are staring up as a wild card entry. They lost to San Francisco on December 3 (19-42), Dallas on December 10 (13-33) and dropped their third game in a row to Seattle (17-20) on Monday.
None of the past 10 Super Bowl winners had a double-digit loss in December, an ominous sign for Philadelphia, who had two such earlier in the month, and Dallas, who were lucky to be overrun by only 21 points last weekend.
The gridiron action hits the boiling point in Week 16, as teams fight to qualify for the remaining 10 play-off spots — six in the AFC and four in the NFC — with 22 teams still in with a fighting chance (12 teams in the AFC and 10 in the NFC).
No division race is more intriguing than the AFC South, where there are three teams deadlocked at 8–6 — the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans.
The Jaguars lost to the Ravens last weekend, but the Colts outmuscled the Steelers (30-13) and the Texans outlasted the Titans (19-16), to set up a spellbinding weekend ahead.
The Jaguars are on a three-game losing skid and face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) this Sunday in a must-win situation, the Colts have won five of their last six games and butt heads with the Atlanta Falcons (6-8) on Sunday, while the Texans welcome the daunting defence of the Cleveland Browns (9-5) into NRG Stadium.
However, considering how crowded the AFC play-off picture is, there is no guarantee that any of the respective division runners-up will make the postseason, making this a do-or-die weekend.
With less than a handful of teams playing for play-off positions and a great many playing for play-off berths, almost every game this weekend can be considered a ‘hot fixture’, but the mouthwatering match-up scheduled for Christmas Day — Monday, December 25 — is impossible to ignore. San Francisco (11-3), who were the first team to book a play-off spot, welcome Baltimore (11-3), the only AFC team with a sure place in the postseason entering the weekend, into Levi’s Stadium for a heavyweight bout.
They both sit atop their respective conferences and will both be looking to solidify that position; however, unless there is a draw, one of these teams will suffer their fourth defeat and possibly slip down the pecking order.
The 49ers last loss was to the Cincinnati Bengals on October 29, the end of their three-game mid-season slide, and are on a six-game win streak, while the Ravens have won four-straight, suffering their last defeat at the hands of the Cleveland Browns on November 12.
These are the hottest teams in football at the most critical point of the regular season, and it may well be a preview of Super Bowl LVIII.
This will be the eighth meeting between these teams, with the 49ers winning two of the previous seven and the Ravens winning five, including a hotly contested Super Bowl XLVII in 2013 (34-31). Their last matchup in 2019 was also decided by three points, with the Ravens winning 20-17, but the historical perspective will have very little bearing on this encounter.
The 49ers are 5-1 at home this season, but the Ravens travel well as they are 6-1 away from home. San Francisco’s quarterback (QB) Brock Purdy leads all others with his top-ranked passer rating (119), but Baltimore’s QB, Lamar Jackson, with an eighth-placed passer rating (96.5), is the most productive rusher playing the position, with 741 yards so far.
Understandably, JustBet offers the 49ers as favourites heading into the game as both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel are healthy, and San Francisco is 10-0 with nine double-digit wins with both in the line-up. However, the Ravens own the number one rushing attack in the NFL with 2,293 yards for the season, and the 49ers have missed 42 tackles over the past three games, including 16 tackles in their win over the Cardinals last Sunday. The bookmakers may have it right, but if the 49ers can’t clean up the tackling miscues, they may have a rude awakening on Monday night.
There are two games tomorrow, Saturday, 10 games on Sunday and three on Monday (Christmas Day). There is a lot of football to enjoy, along with the family, friends, food and festivities. Happy holidays, buckle up and enjoy the ride…… Are you ready for some football?
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Super Bowl LVIII Champion
TeamOdds
San Francisco 49ers3.10
Baltimore Ravens6.20
Kansas City Chiefs8.00
Miami Dolphins9.40
Philadelphia Eagles9.80
Dallas Cowboys11.00
Buffalo Bills12.00
Detroit Lions21.00
Jacksonville Jaguars35.00
Cleveland Browns50.00
*Only Top 10 odds shown (see website for full list)
Note: Odds are subject to change